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Game Recap
NSH3
CHI2
NSH beat CHI 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 4.02 expected goals to 3.65. F. Forsberg led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). Z. L'Heureux had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Saros stopped 27 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| CHI | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 2nd 4:34CHIN. Lardis0.20 xG
- 2nd 6:31NSHF. Forsberg0.23 xG
- 2nd 13:57CHIC. Bedard0.29 xG
- 3rd 9:43NSHS. Stamkos0.19 xG
- OT 1:05NSHF. Forsberg0.27 xG
Team Stats
NSHCHI
33Shots on goal29
4.02Expected goals3.65
51Shot attempts56
235v5 shots on goal25
0/3Power play0/3
29Hits19
10Blocked shots5
6Penalty minutes6
17Giveaways16
8Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 4.02 xGCHI 3.65 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Forsberg | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:54 | 3:04 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:05 | 2:45 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:04 | 3:18 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:15 | 2:39 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:06 | 3:22 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 | 3:15 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:12 | 1:01 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:05 | 0:00 |
| M. Wood | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:45 | 2:52 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:00 |
| R. Schaefer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Kemell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 7:59 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 27:27 | 2:59 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:31 | 1:41 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:15 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:00 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:22 | 0:00 |
| R. Ufko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:17 | 3:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 61:01 | Win |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Bedard | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:46 | 4:43 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:22 | 4:22 |
| R. Greene | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:08 | 1:44 |
| N. Lardis | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:59 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:30 | 4:03 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:22 | 1:48 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:18 | 0:00 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 | 3:52 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:13 | 2:14 |
| L. Slaggert | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:30 | 0:00 |
| D. Toninato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:22 | 0:00 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:15 | 0:00 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26:34 | 0:15 |
| A. Levshunov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:27 | 2:59 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23:02 | 0:00 |
| S. Rinzel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:44 | 3:01 |
| L. Crevier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 33 | 30 | 3 | .909 | 60:56 | OT loss |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NSH
Line 1F. Forsberg14:32J. Marchessault14:11M. Wood9:44
Line 2S. Stamkos12:46R. O'Reilly13:18L. Evangelista12:10
Line 3T. Jost12:10Z. L'Heureux12:47E. Haula14:02
Line 4F. Svechkov11:29R. Schaefer8:25J. Kemell7:22
CHI
Line 1C. Bedard14:59A. Burakovsky15:14R. Greene14:12
Line 2F. Nazar13:28N. Lardis12:15T. Bertuzzi14:00
Line 3R. Donato10:59I. Mikheyev13:40T. Teravainen10:18
Line 4D. Toninato8:22L. Slaggert8:20S. Lafferty7:15
Pair 1A. Vlasic22:23A. Levshunov17:21
Pair 3M. Grzelcyk1:52L. Crevier15:42
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 2.9, CHI 3.0 | NSH 3, CHI 2 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 27.8, CHI 26.5 | NSH 33, CHI 29 |
| Win chance | CHI 52% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI C. Bedard | 3.2 | 3 | 1.11 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.2 | 3 | 0.88 | 3 | 35% | 2 |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.8 | 0 | 0.85 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.4 | 4 | 0.79 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.4 | 2 | 0.66 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 2.3 | 2 | 0.77 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 2.2 | 3 | 0.78 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 2.1 | 1 | 0.81 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.1 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI S. Rinzel | 1.8 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.7 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CHI R. Greene | 1.7 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH E. Haula | 1.7 | 4 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 1.6 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH T. Jost | 1.5 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH M. Wood | 1.5 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.5 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CHI A. Burakovsky | 1.4 | 4 | 0.57 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI L. Crevier | 1.4 | 4 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH J. Kemell | 1.3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI A. Levshunov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.2 | 5 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI N. Lardis | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| NSH N. Hague | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH N. Perbix | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI M. Grzelcyk | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CHI L. Slaggert | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH R. Schaefer | 0.8 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI D. Toninato | 0.7 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH R. Ufko | 0.6 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI S. Lafferty | 0.6 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.