Game Recap: NSH 2, COL 3 (OT), November 11, 2024

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Game Recap

NSH2

Final/OTMon, Nov 11, 2024Every game that night

COL3

COL beat NSH 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.29 expected goals to 2.55. S. Girard led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Marchessault had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. A. Georgiev stopped 28 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NSH	1	0	1	0	2
COL	0	2	0	1	3

1st 1:45NSHL. Evangelista0.25 xG
2nd 4:32COLD. Toews0.05 xG
2nd 11:37COLM. Rantanen0.05 xG
3rd 0:59NSHC. Sissons0.25 xG
OT 2:47COLS. Girard0.19 xG

Team Stats

NSHCOL

30Shots on goal32

2.55Expected goals3.29

63Shot attempts66

245v5 shots on goal25

0/2Power play0/2

23Hits18

21Blocked shots21

4Penalty minutes4

19Giveaways16

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.55 xGCOL 3.29 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH30 on goal, 2 scored

COL31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Sissons	C	1	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	16:39	0:35
J. Parssinen	C	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	0	12:20	0:58
L. Evangelista	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	11:29	1:32
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	20:16	1:30
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	3	0	2	+2	0	19:49	2:34
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	19:16	2:25
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	2	18:12	2:27
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	6	1	0	-1	0	17:40	2:26
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	13:59	0:02
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	13:24	0:00
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	-2	2	11:40	0:00
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	10:51	1:25
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0	26:42	2:35
M. Del Gaizo	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	15:19	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	21:59	1:26
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	20:00	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	19:55	0:05
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	14:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	32	29	3	.906	62:44	OT loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	24:29	2:52
M. Rantanen	RW	1	0	1	4	0	3	0	2	23:42	2:52
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+2	2	15:37	0:00
T. Tynan	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	5:55	1:03
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	24:31	2:52
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	18:16	2:56
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	0	18:11	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	14:52	0:00
I. Ivan	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	14:20	1:09
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	11:12	1:08
C. Wagner	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	7:14	0:00
N. Prishchepov	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:02	0:00
S. Girard	D	1	1	2	1	1	3	+2	0	19:00	1:04
D. Toews	D	1	0	1	1	0	5	0	0	24:44	0:58
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	27:45	3:06
C. de Haan	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	16:19	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:14	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Georgiev	30	28	2	.933	62:47	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJustus Annunen NSH Faces COL, his team until Nov 20240 saves on 0
Old teamScott Wedgewood COL Faces NSH, his team until Nov 20240 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 3.1, COL 3.5	NSH 2, COL 3
Total goals	6.6	5
Shots on goal	NSH 29.0, COL 32.3	NSH 30, COL 32
Win chance	COL 57%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.7	5	1.66	1	43%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.4	3	0.99	0	37%	0
COL M. Rantanen	3.4	4	1.34	1	42%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	3.0	1	0.97	0	35%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.8	3	0.87	1	18%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.8	3	0.92	0	34%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.7	6	0.75	0	31%	0
COL C. Makar	2.6	2	1.09	0	24%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	2.1	3	0.84	0	22%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.9	2	0.49	0	11%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	1.8	3	0.44	1	16%	1
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.8	2	0.70	0	24%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	1	0.59	1	12%	1
COL I. Ivan	1.4	3	0.37	0	16%	0
COL J. Manson	1.4	1	0.34	0	9%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.4	4	0.36	0	14%	0
NSH G. Nyquist	1.4	1	0.70	0	20%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	1	0.22	0	10%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.3	0	0.36	0	8%	0
NSH P. Tomasino	1.3	1	0.40	0	12%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.3	1	0.24	1	11%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	1	0.26	0	13%	0
COL S. Girard	1.2	1	0.39	2	6%	1
COL C. Wagner	1.1	1	0.12	0	7%	0
COL N. Kovalenko	1.1	2	0.36	0	13%	0
NSH L. Schenn	1.1	1	0.17	0	4%	0
NSH M. Gaizo	1.1	0	0.25	1	3%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.1	1	0.29	1	12%	1
NSH C. Smith	1.1	0	0.23	0	9%	0
NSH A. Carrier	1.0	0	0.31	0	5%	0
COL C. Haan	1.0	2	0.17	0	5%	0
NSH J. Lauzon	1.0	1	0.16	0	5%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.0	1	0.23	0	9%	0
NSH J. Parssinen	0.9	1	0.37	1	14%	0
COL T. Tynan	0.9	0	0.14	1	8%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.