Game Recap: NSH 2, COL 5, December 14, 2024

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Game Recap

NSH2

FinalSat, Dec 14, 2024Every game that night

COL5

COL beat NSH 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.78 expected goals to 2.62. N. MacKinnon led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). D. Toews had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. M. Blackwood stopped 37 of 39.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	0	2	2
COL	0	2	3	5

2nd 11:32COLR. Colton0.18 xG
2nd 18:52COLN. MacKinnon0.24 xG
3rd 3:30COLA. Lehkonen0.03 xG
3rd 13:03NSHS. Stamkos0.12 xG
3rd 15:08NSHL. Evangelista0.15 xG
3rd 18:08COLN. MacKinnonEN0.57 xG
3rd 19:10COLA. LehkonenEN0.59 xG

Team Stats

NSHCOL

39Shots on goal33

2.62Expected goals3.78

65Shot attempts56

345v5 shots on goal29

0/1Power play0/2

16Hits23

12Blocked shots16

8Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways12

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.62 xGCOL 3.78 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH39 on goal, 2 scored

COL33 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Marchessault	RW	0	1	1	3	1	1	-2	0	17:17	1:12
S. Stamkos	C	1	0	1	5	1	1	-2	0	16:39	1:08
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	5	0	0	-2	0	15:44	1:09
L. Evangelista	RW	1	0	1	5	0	0	-1	0	13:57	0:51
T. Novak	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	11:27	0:47
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-3	0	17:08	1:13
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	16:47	1:22
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	16:11	0:52
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:54	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	13:09	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	4	12:58	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	12:43	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	21:40	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	2	25:12	0:38
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	2	21:00	0:10
K. Gravel	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	17:44	0:00
M. Del Gaizo	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	15:50	0:38
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	0	15:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	31	28	3	.903	59:09	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	2	1	3	3	0	1	+3	0	21:26	3:19
M. Rantanen	RW	0	3	3	2	1	1	+4	0	21:07	3:17
A. Lehkonen	LW	2	0	2	4	1	3	+3	0	21:02	0:43
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	1	1	2	1	2	-1	0	18:40	3:04
R. Colton	C	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	15:21	1:32
P. Kelly	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	13:14	0:00
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	16:55	0:41
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:07	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	4	12:32	0:24
C. Wagner	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:06	0:00
I. Ivan	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:36	0:42
G. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	7:55	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	5	1	0	+5	0	25:17	1:20
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+3	0	24:37	2:54
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	22:48	0:42
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	19:16	0:00
C. de Haan	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	14:00	0:00
K. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	11:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	39	37	2	.949	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJustus Annunen NSH Faces COL, his team until Nov 20240 saves on 0
Old teamRoss Colton NSH Faces COL, his team until May 20261 G, 1 SOG
Old teamScott Wedgewood COL Faces NSH, his team until Nov 20240 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.9, COL 3.4	NSH 2, COL 5
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	NSH 27.7, COL 31.6	NSH 39, COL 33
Win chance	COL 58%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.2	3	1.45	3	39%	2
NSH F. Forsberg	3.3	5	0.95	1	36%	0
COL M. Rantanen	3.0	2	1.23	3	39%	0
COL C. Makar	2.9	1	1.12	1	27%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.8	3	0.76	1	32%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.6	4	0.85	0	34%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.5	4	0.83	2	32%	2
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	5	0.86	1	33%	1
COL R. Colton	2.2	1	0.56	1	24%	1
NSH B. Skjei	1.9	3	0.48	0	11%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	1.9	5	0.45	1	16%	1
COL D. Toews	1.8	5	0.63	1	13%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.6	3	0.67	0	24%	0
NSH T. Novak	1.5	3	0.53	1	20%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.5	2	0.65	1	19%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.5	2	0.27	0	8%	0
NSH G. Nyquist	1.4	0	0.70	0	21%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.3	2	0.31	0	13%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.2	0	0.32	0	13%	0
COL S. Girard	1.2	2	0.41	0	7%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	1	0.27	0	13%	0
NSH M. Jankowski	1.1	1	0.33	0	13%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.1	1	0.21	1	10%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.1	2	0.21	1	4%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	1	0.22	0	10%	0
NSH M. Gaizo	1.1	0	0.21	0	3%	0
NSH L. Schenn	1.1	1	0.15	0	4%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.1	2	0.24	0	10%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.1	2	0.28	0	12%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.1	2	0.24	0	6%	0
COL C. Haan	1.0	0	0.18	0	4%	0
COL I. Ivan	0.9	0	0.23	0	12%	0
COL C. Wagner	0.9	1	0.09	0	6%	0
NSH K. Gravel	0.9	1	0.14	0	3%	0
COL G. Smith	0.7	1	0.11	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.