Game Recap: NSH 2, COL 4, December 13, 2025

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Game Recap

NSH2

FinalSat, Dec 13, 2025Every game that night

COL4

COL beat NSH 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 6.27 expected goals to 3.18. COL outshot NSH 41 to 29. N. MacKinnon led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). V. Nichushkin had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. S. Wedgewood stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	1	0	1	2
COL	2	1	1	4

1st 1:26COLN. MacKinnon0.06 xG
1st 11:47COLJ. Drury0.05 xG
1st 12:37NSHJ. MarchessaultPP0.13 xG
2nd 9:57COLV. Olofsson0.25 xG
3rd 16:26COLV. NichushkinEN0.93 xG
3rd 18:57NSHT. Jost0.16 xG

Team Stats

NSHCOL

29Shots on goal41

3.18Expected goals6.27

61Shot attempts77

225v5 shots on goal27

1/3Power play0/4

18Hits16

19Blocked shots16

8Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways15

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 3.18 xGCOL 6.27 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH28 on goal, 2 scored

COL40 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	19:53	3:10
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	2	1	1	-2	0	17:06	3:01
J. Marchessault	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	-2	0	15:35	2:57
F. Svechkov	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	13:08	0:00
T. Jost	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	4	10:30	0:00
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	5	0	1	-2	0	17:39	3:01
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	16:25	1:36
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:35	1:40
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	14:42	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	4	3	1	-1	0	12:33	1:30
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	12:11	1:35
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	8:23	0:05
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	-2	2	21:03	3:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	20:29	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	20:18	0:07
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	19:47	0:07
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	19:16	1:34
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	18:25	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	40	37	3	.925	59:02	Loss
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	1	1	2	3	2	0	+3	0	23:29	5:59
V. Nichushkin	RW	1	0	1	8	1	0	+1	2	17:45	3:16
V. Olofsson	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	13:12	1:50
J. Drury	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	12:44	0:00
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	+1	0	19:11	4:15
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	4	0	3	0	0	18:00	5:48
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:59	4:24
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	+1	0	15:31	3:09
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	15:15	1:29
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	11:20	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	0	9:35	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:34	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	2	2	1	1	2	+1	0	16:48	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	23:08	6:00
B. Burns	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	19:35	0:22
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	4	16:24	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	2	0	5	0	0	19:19	1:38
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	0	17:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	29	27	2	.931	59:15	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1F. Svechkov12:56M. Wood10:36S. Stamkos13:46

Line 2R. O'Reilly12:13L. Evangelista13:16F. Forsberg12:45

Line 3J. Marchessault11:58M. Bunting10:25E. Haula10:25

Line 4M. McCarron10:05T. Jost10:04R. Schaefer7:52

Pair 1B. Skjei15:43A. Wilsby15:52

Pair 2R. Josi17:11N. Perbix15:42

Pair 3N. Blankenburg13:45N. Hague13:26

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon16:11G. Brindley12:22A. Lehkonen12:45

Line 2G. Landeskog13:58V. Nichushkin11:58B. Nelson10:35

Line 3R. Colton10:35M. Necas11:50V. Olofsson10:37

Line 4J. Drury9:52J. Kiviranta8:12P. Kelly7:29

Pair 1B. Burns15:59J. Manson14:31

Pair 2S. Girard14:58S. Malinski15:41

Pair 3D. Toews15:18C. Makar15:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJustus Annunen NSH Faces COL, his team until Nov 202437 saves on 40
Old teamRoss Colton NSH Faces COL, his team until May 20262 SOG
Old teamScott Wedgewood COL Faces NSH, his team until Nov 202427 saves on 29, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.5, COL 3.8	NSH 2, COL 4
Total goals	6.3	6
Shots on goal	NSH 26.1, COL 33.5	NSH 29, COL 41
Win chance	COL 70%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.6	3	1.68	2	43%	1
NSH F. Forsberg	3.0	2	0.73	1	31%	0
COL C. Makar	3.0	1	1.25	1	30%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.6	0	0.92	0	34%	0
COL M. Necas	2.6	3	1.18	0	31%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.4	3	0.91	0	31%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.3	1	0.54	0	17%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.3	8	0.75	1	31%	1
NSH R. Josi	2.3	4	0.63	0	14%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.2	4	0.85	0	33%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.1	5	0.63	0	29%	0
COL R. Colton	2.1	2	0.52	0	21%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.1	4	0.51	1	24%	1
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.8	1	0.61	1	23%	0
COL B. Burns	1.7	1	0.42	1	10%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.7	0	0.39	1	8%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.7	4	0.45	0	19%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.7	1	0.40	0	17%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.7	2	0.45	1	19%	1
NSH M. Wood	1.6	2	0.42	0	17%	0
COL D. Toews	1.6	2	0.57	0	12%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.6	1	0.32	0	8%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.4	4	0.50	0	17%	0
COL J. Drury	1.4	2	0.37	1	13%	1
COL J. Manson	1.4	1	0.34	0	8%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	3	0.30	0	12%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.3	1	0.27	1	11%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	1	0.20	0	10%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.1	1	0.21	1	8%	1
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.1	1	0.28	0	6%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	1.1	0	0.23	0	12%	0
COL S. Girard	1.0	1	0.30	2	5%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.0	0	0.19	0	4%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	0	0.23	0	5%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	0.9	0	0.16	0	3%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.8	1	0.18	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.