Game Recap: NSH 7, COL 3, January 16, 2026

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Game Recap

NSH7

FinalFri, Jan 16, 2026Every game that night

COL3

NSH beat COL 7-3, with the chances close: 2.65 expected goals to 2.71. COL outshot NSH 43 to 30. R. O'Reilly scored three for NSH. S. Malinski had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Saros stopped 40 of 43.

Team Stats

NSHCOL

30Shots on goal43

2.65Expected goals2.71

55Shot attempts65

255v5 shots on goal40

1/1Power play0/2

16Hits14

12Blocked shots17

4Penalty minutes2

16Giveaways20

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.65 xGCOL 2.71 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH29 on goal, 6 scored

COL42 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	3	1	4	6	0	0	+4	0	19:44	1:18
F. Forsberg	LW	1	2	3	5	0	1	+3	0	18:35	1:18
L. Evangelista	RW	0	2	2	0	0	0	+3	0	18:11	1:18
S. Stamkos	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	16:55	1:18
M. Bunting	LW	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	0	15:19	0:00
M. McCarron	C	1	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	12:23	0:00
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	15:07	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:26	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	2	12:13	0:00
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	12:05	0:00
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:11	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	1	6	0	-2	0	11:04	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	3	3	2	0	2	+3	0	26:16	1:18
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+4	0	23:58	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	22:08	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	20:55	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:18	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	13:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	43	40	3	.930	60:00	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Nelson	C	2	0	2	4	1	2	-3	0	16:13	1:07
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	-2	0	20:37	0:44
M. Necas	C	1	0	1	2	1	3	-2	0	20:07	1:34
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	1	1	4	0	0	-3	0	18:30	1:07
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	1	1	3	0	1	-3	0	15:18	0:45
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	16:52	0:57
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	14:35	0:59
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:33	1:59
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	+1	0	13:31	1:03
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:13	2:14
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	10:24	0:53
I. Ivan	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:36	0:51
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	6	0	3	+1	0	22:33	1:11
J. Manson	D	0	1	1	4	2	2	+1	0	21:11	0:56
B. Burns	D	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	18:53	0:36
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	0	23:26	1:35
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-3	0	20:04	0:54
I. Solovyov	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	11:35	0:45

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	28	23	5	.821	59:31	Loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1F. Forsberg17:17L. Evangelista16:53R. O'Reilly17:16

Line 2S. Stamkos15:11M. Bunting15:00E. Haula15:07

Line 3M. Wood11:11T. Jost11:12F. Svechkov11:28

Line 4R. Schaefer10:34C. Smith11:20M. McCarron10:20

Pair 1R. Josi23:11B. Skjei21:07

Pair 2N. Hague20:39N. Perbix18:22

Pair 3J. Barron13:12N. Blankenburg12:35

COL

Line 1M. Necas18:14N. MacKinnon19:34A. Lehkonen17:04

Line 2B. Nelson14:30V. Nichushkin13:55R. Colton12:28

Line 3P. Kelly14:54J. Drury12:37V. Olofsson11:34

Line 4Z. Bardakov9:31G. Brindley9:59I. Ivan8:45

Pair 1B. Burns17:38J. Manson19:38

Pair 2C. Makar20:51S. Malinski20:43

Pair 3S. Girard19:10I. Solovyov10:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJustus Annunen NSH Faces COL, his team until Nov 20240 saves on 0
Old teamRoss Colton NSH Faces COL, his team until May 20265 SOG
Old teamScott Wedgewood COL Faces NSH, his team until Nov 20240 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.6, COL 4.0	NSH 7, COL 3
Total goals	6.6	10
Shots on goal	NSH 26.4, COL 33.9	NSH 30, COL 43
Win chance	COL 71%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.4	4	1.64	1	42%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	2.9	5	0.73	3	31%	1
COL M. Necas	2.6	2	1.16	1	32%	1
COL C. Makar	2.6	1	1.11	0	27%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.6	4	0.96	2	36%	2
COL V. Nichushkin	2.5	3	0.83	1	33%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.4	4	0.81	1	31%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.4	2	0.68	2	31%	1
NSH L. Evangelista	2.3	0	0.53	2	17%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.3	2	0.62	3	14%	0
COL R. Colton	2.1	5	0.51	0	19%	0
COL B. Burns	2.0	4	0.46	1	12%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.9	6	0.67	4	24%	3
NSH M. Bunting	1.8	2	0.44	2	19%	1
COL S. Malinski	1.8	6	0.42	1	8%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.7	1	0.47	0	20%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.7	1	0.35	0	16%	0
COL J. Manson	1.6	4	0.42	1	10%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.4	3	0.31	0	7%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.4	0	0.33	0	13%	0
COL J. Drury	1.3	2	0.37	0	13%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	1	0.19	1	9%	1
NSH M. Wood	1.3	2	0.26	0	12%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.3	0	0.21	0	10%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.2	1	0.39	0	14%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.1	0	0.21	0	9%	0
COL S. Girard	1.1	0	0.35	0	6%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.1	1	0.27	0	6%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.0	4	0.17	0	7%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	1.0	1	0.23	0	12%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	0	0.21	0	5%	0
NSH N. Hague	0.9	0	0.18	0	4%	0
COL I. Solovyov	0.8	1	0.21	0	4%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.7	0	0.14	0	5%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.7	0	0.28	0	7%	0
COL I. Ivan	0.6	1	0.15	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.