Game Recap: NSH 3, COL 2 (OT), November 5, 2026

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Game Recap

NSH3

Final/OTThu, Nov 5, 2026Every game that night

COL2

NSH beat COL 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.47 expected goals to 3.32. R. O'Reilly led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). T. Hughes had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. J. Annunen stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NSH	2	0	0	1	3
COL	1	1	0	0	2

1st 4:01NSHR. Colton0.18 xG
1st 9:11COLJ. Schwartz0.17 xG
1st 14:34NSHV. Pinchuk0.02 xG
2nd 5:08COLP. Kelly0.14 xG
OT 2:18NSHS. StamkosPP0.16 xG

Team Stats

NSHCOL

25Shots on goal32

3.47Expected goals3.32

51Shot attempts77

155v5 shots on goal27

1/5Power play0/3

21Hits20

25Blocked shots10

6Penalty minutes10

10Giveaways12

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 3.47 xGCOL 3.32 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH25 on goal, 3 scored

COL32 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	0	2	2	2	0	3	+1	0	24:31	5:41
S. Stamkos	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	0	2	19:01	5:45
R. Colton	C	1	0	1	2	0	4	+1	0	12:44	0:19
R. Schaefer	LW	0	1	1	0	5	1	+1	0	9:46	0:00
V. Pinchuk	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	2	9:26	0:29
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-2	0	20:07	5:25
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:08	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	17:15	4:20
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	1	3	3	+1	0	17:02	0:00
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	15:16	0:35
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	0	12:29	1:40
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	6:07	0:05
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	28:22	5:48
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	22:44	0:20
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	+1	0	21:57	0:36
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	20:31	0:06
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	12:23	0:00
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	11:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	32	30	2	.938	62:18	Win
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	0	23:37	5:26
B. Nelson	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	16:47	0:50
J. Schwartz	LW	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	12:53	0:48
L. O'Connor	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	11:46	0:00
P. Kelly	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	11:40	0:00
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	24:00	5:09
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:31	0:27
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	16:04	5:14
T. Hughes	RW	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	14:37	5:18
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	4	2	0	-2	0	14:01	0:44
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	9:24	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	8:33	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	1	1	0	3	1	0	0	11:39	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	26:54	5:29
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	2	23:51	0:35
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	0	20:14	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	6	18:43	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	15:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	25	22	3	.880	62:18	OT loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos12:48R. O'Reilly13:50M. Bourque12:43

Line 2A. Edstrom13:41J. Drury13:50R. Colton12:03

Line 3F. Forsberg12:17S. Wright10:49N. Hoglander6:02

Line 4A. Kerfoot10:44V. Pinchuk8:57R. Schaefer9:46

Pair 1R. Josi16:52A. Wilsby18:07

Pair 2B. Skjei16:35N. Perbix17:26

Pair 3J. Struble12:04D. Hunt11:26

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon15:56M. Necas16:29A. Lehkonen13:50

Line 2N. Kadri10:34G. Landeskog13:17N. Roy9:24

Line 3B. Nelson10:53J. Schwartz11:05T. Hughes9:19

Line 4P. Kelly8:59L. O'Connor9:17F. Svechkov8:33

Pair 1B. Kulak17:59C. Makar16:01

Pair 2D. Toews17:41S. Malinski16:11

Pair 3B. Burns12:53N. Juulsen11:39

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

12 of 20 overs hit (60%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
COL N. MacKinnon	3.5	-135	+115	1	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	2.5	+146	-180	2	Under
COL C. Makar	2.5	-128	+110	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	2.5	-110	-105	3	Over
COL M. Necas	2.5	-102	-115	3	Over
COL N. Kadri	2.5	+112	-135	3	Over
NSH R. Josi	2.5	+120	-150	2	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	+118	-140	3	Over
COL B. Burns	1.5	-110	-111	2	Over
COL B. Nelson	1.5	-138	+120	1	Under
NSH B. Skjei	1.5	-115	-125	1	Under
COL D. Toews	1.5	-105	-120	3	Over
COL G. Landeskog	1.5	-105	-110	4	Over
COL J. Schwartz	1.5	-115	-105	1	Under
NSH M. Bourque	1.5	-125	+105	3	Over
NSH R. Colton	1.5	-110	-120	2	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.5	-120	+105	2	Over
COL S. Malinski	1.5	-110	-115	3	Over
NSH S. Wright	1.5	-105	-140	0	Under
COL T. Hughes	1.5	-150	+120	6	Over

5 of 36 overs hit (14%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NSH A. Edstrom	0.5	+550	-1000	0	Under
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+550	-1000	0	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+200	-225	0	Under
NSH A. Wilsby	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
COL B. Burns	0.5	+1300	-1400	0	Under
COL B. Kulak	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+250	-370	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+1300	-2500	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
NSH D. Hunt	0.5	+2200	-5000	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+750	-1200	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+220	-300	0	Under
COL F. Svechkov	0.5	+900	-1000	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+320	-550	0	Under
NSH J. Drury	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+360	-500	1	Over
NSH J. Struble	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
COL L. O'Connor	0.5	+750	-1000	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+370	-475	0	Under
COL M. Necas	0.5	+180	-210	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+650	-1000	0	Under
COL N. Juulsen	0.5	+2000	-5000	0	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+300	-370	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	+117	-135	0	Under
NSH N. Perbix	0.5	+2800	-4000	0	Under
COL N. Roy	0.5	+575	-750	0	Under
COL P. Kelly	0.5	+550	-900	1	Over
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+550	-700	1	Over
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+500	-700	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+260	-390	0	Under
NSH R. Schaefer	0.5	+800	-1400	0	Under
COL S. Malinski	0.5	+1200	-1600	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+200	-285	1	Over
NSH S. Wright	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
COL T. Hughes	0.5	+350	-450	0	Under
NSH V. Pinchuk	0.5	+650	-1600	1	Over

4 of 20 overs hit (20%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+240	-325	0	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+215	-250	0	Under
COL B. Burns	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+250	-300	1	Over
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+230	-325	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	-125	+120	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+160	-165	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+130	-145	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+240	-325	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+230	-275	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+235	-275	0	Under
COL M. Necas	0.5	-110	-106	1	Over
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+155	-180	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	-165	+141	0	Under
COL N. Roy	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+115	-130	1	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+130	-162	2	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+190	-225	0	Under
NSH S. Wright	0.5	+300	-400	0	Under
COL T. Hughes	0.5	+225	-275	0	Under

6 of 23 overs hit (26%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
COL M. Necas	1.5	+180	-240	1	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	1.5	+110	-135	0	Under
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+165	-220	0	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	-120	+100	0	Under
COL B. Burns	0.5	+225	-260	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+108	-132	1	Over
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+180	-250	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	-210	+190	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+125	-130	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	-160	+130	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+120	-135	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+135	-165	1	Over
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+125	-135	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+225	-320	0	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	-111	+105	0	Under
COL N. Roy	0.5	+190	-235	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+155	-210	1	Over
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-125	+105	1	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	-150	+125	2	Over
COL S. Malinski	0.5	+190	-260	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	-132	+105	1	Over
NSH S. Wright	0.5	+180	-210	0	Under
COL T. Hughes	0.5	+120	-150	0	Under

3 of 19 overs hit (16%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	+130	-185	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+250	-425	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+360	-800	0	Under
COL M. Necas	0.5	+180	-275	0	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+260	-450	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	+135	-190	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+250	-425	1	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+320	-700	1	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+260	-450	1	Over
COL T. Hughes	0.5	+380	-900	0	Under
NSH V. Pinchuk	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
COL M. Blackwood	21.5	-120	-105	22	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJustus Annunen NSH Faces COL, his team until Nov 202430 saves on 32, the win
Old teamRoss Colton NSH Faces COL, his team until May 20261 G, 2 SOG
Old teamScott Wedgewood COL Faces NSH, his team until Nov 20240 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.8, COL 3.9	NSH 3, COL 2
Total goals	6.7	5
Shots on goal	NSH 25.0, COL 33.5	NSH 25, COL 32
Win chance	COL 67%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.8	1	1.44	0	42%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	2.8	3	0.90	0	33%	0
COL N. Kadri	2.7	3	0.78	0	27%	0
COL C. Makar	2.6	0	1.02	0	25%	0
COL M. Necas	2.4	3	1.03	1	29%	0
COL T. Hughes	2.4	6	0.66	0	26%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.3	3	0.76	1	33%	1
NSH R. Josi	2.2	2	0.75	1	15%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.1	2	0.76	0	32%	0
NSH R. Colton	2.1	2	0.45	1	21%	1
NSH M. Bourque	1.9	3	0.47	0	20%	0
COL B. Nelson	1.8	1	0.60	1	26%	0
COL G. Landeskog	1.8	4	0.64	0	26%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.8	3	0.42	0	8%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.8	2	0.75	2	25%	0
COL J. Schwartz	1.8	1	0.52	1	21%	1
COL B. Burns	1.7	2	0.36	0	8%	0
COL D. Toews	1.6	3	0.54	0	11%	0
NSH A. Edstrom	1.5	1	0.34	0	19%	0
NSH J. Drury	1.4	0	0.38	0	15%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	2	0.36	1	14%	1
NSH S. Wright	1.3	0	0.42	0	19%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.2	0	0.29	1	12%	0
NSH N. Hoglander	1.2	0	0.30	0	14%	0
COL N. Roy	1.2	1	0.38	0	15%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.1	2	0.31	0	6%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.0	1	0.32	0	7%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.0	0	0.22	0	4%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	1.0	0	0.16	1	9%	0
COL F. Svechkov	0.9	0	0.29	0	10%	0
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.9	0	0.32	0	11%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.8	1	0.22	0	4%	0
NSH V. Pinchuk	0.7	3	0.17	1	7%	1
NSH D. Hunt	0.6	2	0.16	0	3%	0
COL N. Juulsen	0.6	0	0.16	1	3%	0
NSH J. Struble	0.5	0	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.