Game Recap: NSH 6, DET 3, November 26, 2025

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Game Recap

NSH6

FinalWed, Nov 26, 2025Every game that night

DET3

NSH beat DET 6-3, with the chances close: 3.63 expected goals to 3.13. R. O'Reilly led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Annunen stopped 28 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	1	0	5	6
DET	0	2	1	3

1st 15:48NSHM. BuntingPP0.15 xG
2nd 5:30DETA. DeBrincatPP0.18 xG
2nd 16:34DETJ. van RiemsdykPP0.06 xG
3rd 2:05NSHN. Blankenburg0.24 xG
3rd 2:20NSHR. Josi0.04 xG
3rd 3:04DETB. Chiarot0.00 xG
3rd 14:14NSHR. O'Reilly0.36 xG
3rd 14:42NSHE. Haula0.24 xG
3rd 18:45NSHS. StamkosEN0.79 xG

Team Stats

NSHDET

29Shots on goal31

3.63Expected goals3.13

64Shot attempts55

245v5 shots on goal21

1/4Power play2/4

22Hits13

8Blocked shots17

10Penalty minutes10

7Giveaways14

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 3.63 xGDET 3.13 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH29 on goal, 6 scored

DET31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	1	2	3	1	0	0	+3	0	20:02	2:35
S. Stamkos	C	1	1	2	3	1	1	+2	2	18:28	2:45
L. Evangelista	RW	0	2	2	2	0	0	+3	0	16:55	3:20
E. Haula	LW	1	1	2	3	3	1	0	0	16:27	3:02
M. Bunting	LW	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	0	15:24	3:03
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	4	3	0	+1	0	21:21	2:19
J. Marchessault	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:26	2:43
M. McCarron	C	0	1	1	3	5	2	+1	0	15:45	0:08
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:54	0:08
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	2	9:53	0:08
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:52	3:06
N. Blankenburg	D	1	1	2	1	1	1	+1	2	16:12	3:28
R. Josi	D	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	4	23:57	2:47
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	19:45	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	18:42	0:13
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+2	0	17:06	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	10:28	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	31	28	3	.903	60:00	Win
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Larkin	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	-3	0	22:46	5:13
L. Raymond	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	-2	0	21:33	4:50
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	2	19:32	4:43
P. Kane	RW	0	1	1	3	0	1	-2	0	19:04	5:12
J. Compher	LW	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	13:01	0:00
M. Appleton	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	12:46	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-3	0	9:53	0:30
N. Danielson	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-2	2	9:09	0:21
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	16:12	0:00
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:32	0:00
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	12:01	0:00
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	11:18	0:00
B. Chiarot	D	1	0	1	3	6	2	-1	4	21:16	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	2	0	5	-3	2	27:00	5:13
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	19:00	0:01
E. Gustafsson	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	17:23	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	15:14	0:02
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	13:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	28	23	5	.821	57:13	Loss
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos13:18L. Evangelista12:00R. O'Reilly11:46

Line 2J. Marchessault12:55F. Forsberg16:22E. Haula10:36

Line 3M. Bunting11:16M. McCarron12:48O. Wiesblatt9:23

Line 4F. Svechkov12:53M. Wood6:41

Pair 1B. Skjei12:53N. Perbix12:55

Pair 2R. Josi18:58N. Hague13:32

Pair 3N. Blankenburg10:48S. Stastney8:32

DET

Line 1D. Larkin12:46L. Raymond13:18E. Finnie13:01

Line 2P. Kane11:14M. Kasper11:55A. DeBrincat11:56

Line 3J. Compher10:24E. Soderblom10:37M. Appleton10:36

Line 4A. Copp8:16N. Danielson8:18J. Riemsdyk7:22

Pair 1B. Chiarot19:10M. Seider16:44

Pair 2E. Gustafsson15:00A. Sandin-Pellikka14:33

Pair 3T. Hamonic10:27A. Johansson11:08

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.8, DET 3.3	NSH 6, DET 3
Total goals	6.2	9
Shots on goal	NSH 26.6, DET 29.1	NSH 29, DET 31
Win chance	DET 59%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.3	4	0.99	1	34%	1
DET D. Larkin	3.1	3	1.11	1	37%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.1	4	0.90	1	35%	0
DET P. Kane	2.5	3	0.90	1	25%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.5	2	0.61	2	20%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.4	3	0.78	1	17%	1
DET L. Raymond	2.4	1	1.03	1	28%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.3	2	0.67	1	29%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.0	3	0.71	2	31%	1
DET M. Seider	1.9	2	0.58	0	10%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.8	1	0.68	3	25%	1
NSH M. Wood	1.8	1	0.48	0	19%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.8	2	0.58	2	22%	1
NSH B. Skjei	1.7	1	0.43	0	11%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.6	3	0.49	0	18%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.6	3	0.44	2	18%	1
DET M. Kasper	1.5	1	0.37	0	17%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.4	1	0.37	2	9%	1
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.3	2	0.46	1	17%	1
DET N. Danielson	1.3	0	0.35	1	12%	0
DET J. Compher	1.2	0	0.43	1	16%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.2	3	0.26	1	8%	1
DET E. Soderblom	1.2	1	0.33	0	14%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.1	2	0.33	1	11%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	1.1	0	0.35	0	9%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.1	1	0.31	0	7%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.1	3	0.23	1	11%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.1	0	0.21	0	5%	0
DET A. Copp	1.1	1	0.40	0	13%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.1	0	0.18	0	3%	0
DET T. Hamonic	1.0	2	0.17	0	5%	0
DET E. Gustafsson	1.0	2	0.38	0	7%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.0	0	0.21	0	10%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.9	1	0.20	0	8%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.9	1	0.17	0	5%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.7	1	0.21	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.