Game Recap: NSH 2, EDM 3 (OT), November 14, 2024

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Game Recap

NSH2

Final/OTThu, Nov 14, 2024Every game that night

EDM3

EDM beat NSH 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.69 expected goals to 1.61. EDM outshot NSH 34 to 22. D. Nurse led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). C. McDavid had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. C. Pickard stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NSH	1	0	1	0	2
EDM	0	2	0	1	3

1st 8:22NSHM. McCarron0.04 xG
2nd 2:44EDMC. McDavid0.14 xG
2nd 5:30EDMD. Nurse0.03 xG
3rd 17:12NSHC. Smith0.12 xG
OT 2:33EDMD. Nurse0.11 xG

Team Stats

NSHEDM

22Shots on goal34

1.61Expected goals3.69

38Shot attempts53

215v5 shots on goal26

0/2Power play0/4

19Hits15

7Blocked shots12

8Penalty minutes4

21Giveaways18

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 1.61 xGEDM 3.69 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH20 on goal, 2 scored

EDM34 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. McCarron	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+2	0	14:05	0:08
C. Smith	RW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+2	0	13:55	0:07
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	10:55	0:00
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19:05	0:49
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	19:02	0:49
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	17:54	1:01
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:04	0:54
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	4	14:53	0:14
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	14:52	0:49
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	12:52	1:02
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	0	12:36	1:08
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	12:23	1:04
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	24:50	0:54
J. Lauzon	D	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	22:35	0:05
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	22:54	0:10
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	21:25	1:11
M. Del Gaizo	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	15:17	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	34	31	3	.912	62:33	OT loss
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	0	2	2	4	0	1	+2	0	25:39	4:32
C. McDavid	C	1	1	2	8	3	0	+1	0	24:57	4:46
M. Janmark	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	14:32	0:02
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	21:46	4:46
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	20:43	4:52
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:23	1:19
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	14:31	1:13
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:50	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	13:38	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	2	10:29	1:15
D. Ryan	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	10:11	0:00
D. Nurse	D	2	1	3	2	4	0	+3	0	22:12	1:18
B. Kulak	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	21:54	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	25:44	4:47
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	2	3	3	0	0	20:39	1:34
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:36	0:01
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:15	0:00
T. Dermott	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	22	20	2	.909	61:29	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMattias Ekholm EDM Faces NSH, his team until Feb 20232 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.8, EDM 3.4	NSH 2, EDM 3
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	NSH 26.9, EDM 31.8	NSH 22, EDM 34
Win chance	EDM 60%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.4	1	0.93	0	36%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	3.1	3	0.80	0	36%	0
EDM C. McDavid	3.0	8	1.43	2	35%	1
NSH S. Stamkos	2.7	1	0.86	0	32%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.7	0	0.81	1	19%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.6	1	0.70	0	30%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.6	4	1.27	2	41%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.5	0	0.90	0	18%	0
EDM J. Skinner	2.2	4	0.55	0	23%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.2	2	0.55	0	13%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.1	2	0.40	3	11%	2
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	3	0.80	0	22%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.8	0	0.44	0	12%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	1.7	5	0.40	0	15%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.7	0	0.65	0	23%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.5	0	0.30	0	11%	0
NSH G. Nyquist	1.4	1	0.68	0	20%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	2	0.46	0	21%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.4	1	0.26	0	12%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.3	2	0.32	1	7%	0
NSH P. Tomasino	1.2	3	0.37	0	12%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.2	1	0.33	0	16%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.1	1	0.24	1	12%	1
NSH C. Sissons	1.1	0	0.29	0	12%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.0	1	0.22	1	9%	1
NSH L. Schenn	1.0	1	0.15	0	4%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.0	0	0.22	1	8%	0
NSH J. Lauzon	1.0	2	0.14	1	5%	0
NSH M. Gaizo	0.9	2	0.25	0	3%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.9	1	0.31	1	11%	0
NSH A. Carrier	0.9	1	0.28	0	5%	0
NSH J. Parssinen	0.9	2	0.34	0	13%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.9	0	0.14	0	4%	0
EDM D. Ryan	0.8	0	0.18	0	9%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	1	0.21	0	3%	0
EDM T. Dermott	0.6	0	0.13	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.