Game Recap: NSH 2, EDM 6, January 6, 2026

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Game Recap

NSH2

FinalTue, Jan 6, 2026Every game that night

EDM6

EDM beat NSH 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.86 expected goals to 2.00. EDM outshot NSH 43 to 26. C. McDavid scored three for EDM. C. McDavid had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. C. Ingram stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	0	2	2
EDM	1	3	2	6

1st 8:53EDMC. McDavidPP0.17 xG
2nd 15:53EDMC. McDavid0.33 xG
2nd 16:15EDMC. Lazar0.44 xG
2nd 18:52EDMK. Kapanen0.16 xG
3rd 3:48NSHR. O'Reilly0.09 xG
3rd 4:03NSHN. Blankenburg0.01 xG
3rd 13:46EDML. Draisaitl0.30 xG
3rd 19:03EDMC. McDavid0.22 xG

Team Stats

NSHEDM

26Shots on goal43

2.00Expected goals5.86

58Shot attempts75

245v5 shots on goal35

0/2Power play1/2

17Hits15

13Blocked shots16

4Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways16

6Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.00 xGEDM 5.86 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH24 on goal, 2 scored

EDM43 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Evangelista	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	20:18	2:31
M. Bunting	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:24	2:25
R. O'Reilly	C	1	0	1	3	0	2	0	0	17:47	1:35
R. Schaefer	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	-1	0	13:26	0:00
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	+1	0	18:58	2:33
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	16:35	0:00
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	16:10	1:29
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	15:41	2:24
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	4	5	2	-1	2	14:52	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	14:48	1:36
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	12:38	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	0	19:53	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	16:59	1:27
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	22:13	2:33
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	18:14	1:27
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:49	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:34	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	43	37	6	.860	60:00	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	3	0	3	10	0	0	+2	0	22:28	2:28
L. Draisaitl	C	1	2	3	3	0	0	0	0	19:12	2:28
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	2	2	1	3	0	0	0	16:40	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	1	1	2	3	5	0	0	0	14:33	0:00
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	20:15	2:25
M. Savoie	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	2	13:32	0:06
M. Janmark	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	12:35	0:00
C. Lazar	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	8:44	0:00
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	0	19:21	2:30
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	15:48	0:09
I. Howard	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:34	0:06
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2:26	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	25:52	2:34
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	4	1	0	+2	0	23:36	0:04
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	1	3	7	-2	0	21:52	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	16:34	0:00
A. Regula	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-2	2	16:08	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+2	0	13:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	26	24	2	.923	59:55	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1E. Haula13:36M. Bunting15:54L. Evangelista17:42

Line 2R. O'Reilly14:37F. Forsberg16:25S. Stamkos13:17

Line 3M. McCarron13:51R. Schaefer13:26C. Smith15:02

Line 4T. Jost12:38F. Svechkov13:12

Pair 1N. Hague18:47N. Blankenburg14:28

Pair 2R. Josi18:41N. Perbix14:15

Pair 3B. Skjei16:13A. Wilsby14:34

EDM

Line 1R. Nugent-Hopkins15:34C. McDavid17:31Z. Hyman16:47

Line 2L. Draisaitl16:34V. Podkolzin16:00K. Kapanen14:28

Line 3J. Roslovic15:39I. Howard12:28M. Savoie12:25

Line 4M. Janmark10:58C. Lazar8:44

Pair 1M. Ekholm22:15E. Bouchard20:55

Pair 2D. Nurse20:16A. Regula16:08

Pair 3S. Stastney15:03T. Emberson12:34

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.9, EDM 3.4	NSH 2, EDM 6
Total goals	6.3	8
Shots on goal	NSH 27.2, EDM 29.1	NSH 26, EDM 43
Win chance	EDM 58%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.4	10	1.72	3	39%	3
EDM Z. Hyman	3.1	4	0.94	0	39%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.0	3	0.90	0	34%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.9	3	1.46	3	43%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.8	1	1.08	1	22%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.3	2	0.64	1	18%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.3	2	0.81	0	33%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.2	0	0.71	0	18%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	0	0.88	1	25%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.9	3	0.78	1	25%	1
EDM M. Ekholm	1.9	4	0.53	1	12%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	1.9	4	0.57	0	21%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.8	1	0.40	0	11%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.8	1	0.52	1	20%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.7	2	0.42	0	17%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	1	0.42	2	16%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.4	1	0.37	0	10%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	0	0.34	0	16%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	4	0.23	0	10%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.2	3	0.31	2	11%	1
NSH C. Smith	1.2	2	0.23	0	10%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.1	4	0.29	1	13%	0
EDM I. Howard	1.1	2	0.23	0	11%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.1	1	0.25	0	10%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.1	1	0.28	1	7%	1
NSH T. Jost	1.0	0	0.22	0	9%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	0	0.27	0	6%	0
EDM S. Stastney	0.9	0	0.23	0	5%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	0.9	0	0.19	0	4%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.9	2	0.25	1	15%	0
NSH N. Hague	0.8	2	0.21	1	5%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.7	0	0.17	0	6%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.7	2	0.25	1	9%	0
EDM A. Regula	0.7	1	0.13	0	4%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	0	0.20	0	4%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.5	3	0.16	1	7%	1

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.