Game Recap: NSH 1, EDM 3, March 15, 2026

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Game Recap

NSH1

FinalSun, Mar 15, 2026Every game that night

EDM3

EDM beat NSH 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.31 expected goals to 3.04. C. McDavid led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). C. Ingram stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	0	1	1
EDM	1	1	1	3

1st 3:12EDML. DraisaitlPP0.11 xG
2nd 2:32EDMM. Savoie0.21 xG
3rd 4:52NSHF. Svechkov0.08 xG
3rd 18:53EDMZ. HymanEN0.82 xG

Team Stats

NSHEDM

27Shots on goal30

3.04Expected goals5.31

55Shot attempts51

145v5 shots on goal20

0/4Power play1/4

12Hits26

9Blocked shots9

13Penalty minutes13

17Giveaways13

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 3.04 xGEDM 5.31 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH27 on goal, 1 scored

EDM30 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Svechkov	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	9:39	0:01
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	21:38	4:45
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	2	19:05	5:01
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	18:25	2:46
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	18:05	5:03
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	17:37	3:15
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	16:44	5:16
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	15:14	2:51
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:58	0:02
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:03	0:01
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	2	10:14	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:13	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	5	20:49	0:08
J. Barron	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9:16	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	28:54	5:29
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	25:51	2:54
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	17:17	0:04
R. Ufko	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:29	2:24

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	29	27	2	.931	58:08	Loss
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	3	3	2	0	0	+2	0	24:08	5:38
Z. Hyman	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	+2	0	19:51	5:31
M. Savoie	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:00	1:22
L. Draisaitl	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	3:12	0:49
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	18:54	0:32
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:10	5:23
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	5	14:32	5:09
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	14:31	1:54
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	13:57	1:10
J. Samanski	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	12:52	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	11:36	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	2	9:53	0:05
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	26:06	5:32
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	+2	0	19:48	1:33
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	20:23	0:05
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	2	18:14	0:05
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	16:23	1:52
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:45	0:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	27	26	1	.963	59:45	Win
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1R. O'Reilly12:37L. Evangelista14:17S. Stamkos12:13

Line 2F. Forsberg11:41J. Marchessault9:32M. Wood11:49

Line 3Z. L'Heureux10:20E. Haula10:39T. Jost9:40

Line 4O. Wiesblatt7:32F. Svechkov9:21R. Schaefer8:00

Pair 1R. Josi19:35B. Skjei17:24

Pair 2N. Hague16:21N. Perbix13:32

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman13:23C. McDavid15:21M. Savoie11:33

Line 2J. Roslovic12:30R. Nugent-Hopkins11:21J. Dickinson13:04

Line 3A. Henrique8:58T. Frederic9:45J. Samanski10:48

Line 4V. Podkolzin9:15K. Kapanen9:14

Pair 1C. Murphy14:22D. Nurse15:53

Pair 2M. Ekholm14:36E. Bouchard15:56

Pair 3J. Walman12:25S. Stastney11:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 3.0, EDM 3.8	NSH 1, EDM 3
Total goals	6.8	4
Shots on goal	NSH 26.6, EDM 32.0	NSH 27, EDM 30
Win chance	EDM 62%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.6	2	1.75	3	40%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	3.2	5	0.98	1	41%	1
NSH F. Forsberg	3.1	3	0.93	0	36%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.9	2	1.50	1	43%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.7	2	1.12	1	22%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.5	4	0.85	0	19%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.4	4	0.84	0	35%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.3	4	0.68	0	28%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.2	3	0.65	0	17%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.1	0	0.88	0	27%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	1	0.88	0	25%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	2.0	2	0.57	0	22%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.8	1	0.38	0	10%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.7	0	0.45	0	16%	0
EDM J. Walman	1.7	2	0.43	0	13%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.7	2	0.46	1	15%	1
NSH E. Haula	1.7	1	0.46	0	18%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.6	2	0.44	0	16%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.5	3	0.52	1	11%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.4	0	0.38	0	17%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.3	1	0.37	0	9%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.2	1	0.25	0	10%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.1	1	0.23	0	10%	0
EDM J. Dickinson	1.1	2	0.33	0	15%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.1	3	0.26	0	13%	0
EDM C. Murphy	1.1	0	0.26	0	7%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.0	1	0.21	0	12%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.0	3	0.24	1	6%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	0.9	1	0.25	1	9%	1
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	1	0.24	0	6%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.8	0	0.22	0	12%	0
EDM S. Stastney	0.8	0	0.18	0	4%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.7	0	0.17	0	7%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.6	0	0.17	1	5%	0
NSH R. Ufko	0.6	0	0.29	0	5%	0
EDM J. Samanski	0.5	0	0.25	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.