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Game Recap
NSH2
FLA1
NSH beat FLA 2-1 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 4.03 expected goals to 4.61. R. O'Reilly led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Wood had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Saros stopped 30 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 16:26FLAC. Verhaeghe0.19 xG
- 3rd 13:41NSHR. O'Reilly0.42 xG
- OT 4:03NSHS. Stamkos0.25 xG
Team Stats
NSHFLA
29Shots on goal31
4.03Expected goals4.61
60Shot attempts57
195v5 shots on goal14
0/5Power play0/6
19Hits19
12Blocked shots9
14Penalty minutes12
16Giveaways17
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 4.03 xGFLA 4.61 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. O'Reilly | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:27 | 4:20 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:38 | 4:15 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:17 | 5:11 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:56 | 4:41 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:20 | 4:16 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:31 | 3:19 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:50 | 4:59 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:42 | 0:22 |
| M. Wood | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:21 | 4:24 |
| R. Schaefer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:41 | 0:00 |
| O. Wiesblatt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 27:08 | 5:24 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:22 | 0:06 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:05 | 0:25 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:14 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16:30 | 3:52 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11:54 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 31 | 30 | 1 | .968 | 64:03 | Win |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:19 | 7:13 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 | 6:57 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 10:59 | 0:00 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:13 | 7:21 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 22:00 | 6:59 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:21 | 4:12 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:42 | 2:43 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:13 | 4:05 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:07 | 3:58 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:34 | 0:03 |
| J. Studnicka | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:03 | 0:31 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:27 | 0:03 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26:29 | 7:33 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:12 | 3:55 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 23:49 | 1:39 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 19:23 | 0:08 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:30 | 0:00 |
| D. Sebrango | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 64:03 | OT loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NSH
Line 1S. Stamkos11:34R. O'Reilly12:00L. Evangelista9:51
Line 2J. Marchessault13:25F. Forsberg12:30E. Haula9:29
Line 3M. McCarron11:56R. Schaefer7:26F. Svechkov9:47
Line 4M. Bunting7:06M. Wood7:57
Pair 3S. Stastney9:06N. Blankenburg9:57
FLA
Line 1B. Marchand11:13A. Lundell10:42M. Samoskevich11:19
Line 2E. Rodrigues11:44J. Boqvist10:09S. Reinhart9:37
Line 3C. Verhaeghe9:52A. Greer10:59S. Bennett9:40
Line 4N. Gregor6:24J. Studnicka6:32L. Kunin5:45
Pair 1A. Ekblad13:51G. Forsling16:00
Pair 2S. Jones12:34N. Mikkola14:23
Pair 3D. Sebrango9:23U. Balinskis9:53
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 2.6, FLA 3.2 | NSH 2, FLA 1 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 26.3, FLA 29.2 | NSH 29, FLA 31 |
| Win chance | FLA 61% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 2.8 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.7 | 3 | 1.09 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.7 | 4 | 0.74 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.7 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.6 | 5 | 0.90 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.6 | 2 | 1.01 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.4 | 2 | 0.85 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.1 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.1 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.1 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.0 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 1.8 | 1 | 0.63 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.8 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 1.7 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.6 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.6 | 4 | 0.63 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.6 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 1.6 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.6 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH E. Haula | 1.5 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH M. Wood | 1.4 | 4 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA J. Studnicka | 1.3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.3 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH N. Hague | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 1.1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA N. Gregor | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.0 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH O. Wiesblatt | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 0.8 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stastney | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA D. Sebrango | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.