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Game Recap
NSH0
Final/OTSat, Mar 15, 2025Every game that night
LAK1

LAK beat NSH 1-0 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.04 expected goals to 1.89. M. McCarron had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. D. Kuemper stopped 24 of 24.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
NSH00000
LAK00011
  1. OT 3:20LAKQ. Byfield0.21 xG

Team Stats

NSHLAK
24Shots on goal21
1.89Expected goals2.04
46Shot attempts70
225v5 shots on goal16
0/2Power play0/3
26Hits18
21Blocked shots9
6Penalty minutes4
13Giveaways17
8Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 1.89 xGLAK 2.04 xGGoal

00.511.522.51st2nd3rdOTLAK goal, 3:20

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH24 on goal, 0 scored
LAK21 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. MarchessaultRW0001110019:312:45
R. O'ReillyC000202-1019:272:51
F. ForsbergLW0004000217:442:44
C. SissonsC0000210017:080:14
S. StamkosC0002210016:553:03
M. BuntingLW0000100216:051:01
M. McCarronC0005410016:010:04
C. SmithRW0000000015:070:00
F. SvechkovC0001020013:491:06
K. BellowsLW0000000011:440:00
J. VranaLW000320-1011:041:12
Z. L'HeureuxLW000150008:510:00
B. SkjeiD000105-1226:542:40
N. BlankenburgD0000230021:300:59
M. Del GaizoD0003500021:110:30
J. BarronD0000020017:410:30
A. EnglundD0001210017:270:00
J. OesterleD0000020015:510:21
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Annunen21201.95263:20OT loss
J. Saros000–0:00

LAK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. KempeRW011110+1220:553:41
Q. ByfieldRW101121+1020:122:18
K. FialaLW0000200021:054:27
A. KopitarC0001100019:203:44
P. DanaultC0001010019:152:18
A. KuzmenkoLW0001000017:213:58
T. MooreLW0001200017:052:09
W. FoegeleLW0002200016:321:23
A. LaferriereRW0001110016:110:00
T. JeannotLW000032027:530:00
S. HeleniusC000121006:570:00
A. TurcotteC000110006:430:00
B. ClarkeD0112010018:242:31
D. DoughtyD000201+1025:003:31
M. AndersonD0002010021:360:00
V. GavrikovD0002000020:370:00
J. EdmundsonD0001000018:590:00
J. SpenceD0001100012:230:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Kuemper242401.00062:52Win
D. Rittich000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNSH 2.6, LAK 3.1NSH 0, LAK 1
Total goals5.71
Shots on goalNSH 26.3, LAK 29.3NSH 24, LAK 21
Win chanceLAK 60%LAK won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NSH F. Forsberg3.140.81032%0
LAK A. Kempe2.910.88134%0
LAK K. Fiala2.700.84030%0
LAK W. Foegele2.420.60023%0
NSH J. Marchessault2.410.64027%0
NSH S. Stamkos2.220.72030%0
LAK T. Moore2.210.60023%0
LAK A. Laferriere2.210.46019%0
LAK Q. Byfield2.010.70121%1
LAK P. Danault1.810.61019%0
NSH R. O'Reilly1.820.60021%0
NSH B. Skjei1.710.39011%0
NSH M. Bunting1.700.48019%0
LAK D. Doughty1.520.65016%0
LAK A. Kuzmenko1.510.65026%0
LAK A. Kopitar1.410.81023%0
NSH F. Svechkov1.410.29014%0
LAK B. Clarke1.320.3718%0
LAK M. Anderson1.320.3509%0
NSH J. Vrana1.330.33018%0
LAK V. Gavrikov1.320.3709%0
LAK J. Edmundson1.210.2607%0
NSH K. Bellows1.200.22010%0
NSH M. McCarron1.250.23012%0
NSH M. Gaizo1.230.2003%0
NSH N. Blankenburg1.200.2407%0
NSH C. Smith1.100.2109%0
NSH C. Sissons1.100.30011%0
NSH Z. L'Heureux1.010.2409%0
NSH J. Barron1.000.2108%0
LAK A. Turcotte1.010.2609%0
LAK J. Spence0.810.2804%0
NSH J. Oesterle0.800.1603%0
LAK T. Jeannot0.800.20010%0
LAK S. Helenius0.610.1407%0
NSH A. Englund0.510.0902%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.