Game Recap: NSH 3, LAK 0, November 10, 2026

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Game Recap

NSH3

FinalTue, Nov 10, 2026Every game that night

LAK0

NSH beat LAK 3-0, with the chances close: 2.50 expected goals to 2.76. F. Forsberg led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Bourque had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Saros stopped 30 of 30.

Team Stats

NSHLAK

30Shots on goal30

2.50Expected goals2.76

50Shot attempts65

255v5 shots on goal23

0/4Power play0/2

9Hits26

21Blocked shots12

19Penalty minutes13

14Giveaways14

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.50 xGLAK 2.76 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH29 on goal, 2 scored

LAK29 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	2	0	2	3	0	0	+3	2	20:12	4:40
N. Hoglander	LW	0	2	2	0	1	0	+2	0	14:04	3:08
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:21	4:41
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	18:18	4:39
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	17:38	0:09
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	5	1	1	0	0	17:30	4:34
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:57	3:12
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	+2	0	15:02	3:14
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	12:09	0:07
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:28	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	17	11:08	0:08
V. Pinchuk	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:06	2:34
A. Wilsby	D	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	21:45	0:03
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	19:05	3:08
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	23:56	4:54
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	2	0	5	+1	0	18:16	0:49
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	15:44	0:00
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	14:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	30	30	0	1.000	60:00	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Q. Byfield	RW	4	0	0	-1	0	19:28	2:21
A. Panarin	LW	3	1	0	-2	2	18:38	2:48
E. Haula	LW	1	0	0	0	0	17:12	1:39
A. Kempe	RW	3	0	0	-2	0	17:07	2:24
A. Laferriere	RW	5	2	0	-2	0	16:36	2:22
T. Moore	LW	1	3	0	0	0	15:34	1:12
C. Perry	RW	1	0	0	-1	2	14:15	1:37
K. Connors	C	2	2	0	0	2	12:46	0:00
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	0	0	12:43	0:00
S. Laughton	C	1	4	0	-1	0	11:59	0:00
M. Zuccarello	RW	1	1	1	-1	0	11:13	1:37
A. Lee	LW	1	4	0	-1	5	11:13	0:00
M. Anderson	D	1	0	2	0	0	23:59	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	4	3	0	2	22:22	1:30
B. Clarke	D	3	2	5	-1	0	21:00	2:30
J. Edmundson	D	1	0	1	0	0	17:43	0:00
C. Ceci	D	2	3	0	-2	0	14:50	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	-2	0	14:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	29	27	2	.931	58:42	Loss
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1J. Drury14:22R. Colton12:02A. Edstrom9:44

Line 2S. Stamkos12:50M. Bourque12:56R. O'Reilly11:25

Line 3F. Forsberg14:14S. Wright11:48N. Hoglander10:56

Line 4A. Kerfoot10:08R. Schaefer10:57V. Pinchuk8:32

Pair 1R. Josi16:32A. Wilsby19:11

Pair 2J. Struble15:44D. Hunt14:21

Pair 3B. Skjei13:08N. Perbix14:40

LAK

Line 1A. Panarin14:32A. Kempe13:10A. Laferriere12:45

Line 2E. Haula12:03K. Connors12:15J. Armia12:43

Line 3C. Perry11:20Q. Byfield12:00T. Moore10:43

Line 4S. Laughton11:20A. Lee7:48M. Zuccarello9:36

Pair 1D. Doughty17:55M. Anderson18:50

Pair 2J. Edmundson15:12B. Clarke16:35

Pair 3B. Dumoulin12:30C. Ceci12:13

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 15 overs hit (60%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
LAK A. Kempe	2.5	-150	+130	3	Over
LAK A. Laferriere	2.5	-155	+130	5	Over
LAK A. Panarin	2.5	-175	+135	3	Over
NSH F. Forsberg	2.5	-144	+120	3	Over
NSH M. Bourque	2.5	+120	-150	5	Over
LAK Q. Byfield	2.5	+100	-120	4	Over
NSH R. Josi	2.5	+107	-120	3	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	-104	-115	2	Under
NSH A. Wilsby	1.5	+155	-170	1	Under
LAK B. Clarke	1.5	-122	+100	3	Over
LAK C. Perry	1.5	-110	-105	1	Under
NSH R. Colton	1.5	-109	-120	2	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.5	-135	+120	1	Under
LAK S. Laughton	1.5	+145	-195	1	Under
LAK T. Moore	1.5	-155	+135	1	Under

2 of 36 overs hit (6%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NSH A. Edstrom	0.5	+550	-1000	0	Under
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	+165	-200	0	Under
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+600	-1400	0	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+240	-350	0	Under
LAK A. Lee	0.5	+1000	–	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	+150	-180	0	Under
NSH A. Wilsby	0.5	+1800	-5000	1	Over
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.5	+1900	-5000	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
LAK C. Ceci	0.5	+2200	-2800	0	Under
LAK C. Perry	0.5	+425	-600	0	Under
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+1000	-1600	0	Under
NSH D. Hunt	0.5	+2500	-10000	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+450	-900	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+174	-230	2	Over
LAK J. Armia	0.5	+600	-800	0	Under
NSH J. Drury	0.5	+800	-1000	0	Under
LAK J. Edmundson	0.5	+1800	-4000	0	Under
NSH J. Struble	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
LAK K. Connors	0.5	+750	-2500	0	Under
LAK M. Anderson	0.5	+1800	-2800	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+350	-400	0	Under
LAK M. Zuccarello	0.5	+350	-600	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+675	-800	0	Under
NSH N. Perbix	0.5	+1500	-2800	0	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	+230	-275	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+525	-750	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+475	-600	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+245	-350	0	Under
NSH R. Schaefer	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
LAK S. Laughton	0.5	+650	-1400	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+165	-220	0	Under
NSH S. Wright	0.5	+410	-750	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+400	-475	0	Under
NSH V. Pinchuk	0.5	+700	-2000	0	Under

2 of 22 overs hit (9%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	+144	-165	0	Under
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+265	-380	0	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+165	-190	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	-122	+102	0	Under
NSH A. Wilsby	0.5	+255	-360	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+135	-150	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+205	-275	1	Over
LAK C. Perry	0.5	+305	-425	0	Under
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+220	-275	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+310	-440	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+120	-140	0	Under
LAK J. Edmundson	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+200	-265	0	Under
LAK M. Zuccarello	0.5	+165	-195	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+320	-440	2	Over
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	+158	-210	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+350	–	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-125	+110	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+125	-145	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+155	-193	0	Under
NSH S. Wright	0.5	+300	-400	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+280	-390	0	Under

4 of 22 overs hit (18%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
LAK A. Panarin	1.5	+180	-205	0	Under
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	-170	+140	0	Under
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+160	-220	0	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	-125	+110	0	Under
NSH A. Wilsby	0.5	+230	-320	1	Over
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	-106	-110	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+165	-225	1	Over
LAK C. Perry	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+175	-180	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+170	-230	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	-175	+155	2	Over
LAK J. Edmundson	0.5	+350	-525	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+115	-140	0	Under
LAK M. Zuccarello	0.5	+100	-120	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+225	-265	2	Over
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	-125	+105	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+190	–	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-160	+140	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	-150	+121	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	-175	+140	0	Under
NSH S. Wright	0.5	+190	-215	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+150	-175	0	Under

0 of 14 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	+235	-275	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+280	-550	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	+165	-200	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+300	-600	Under
LAK C. Perry	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+180	-250	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+450	-600	Under
LAK M. Zuccarello	0.5	+400	-1100	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	+300	-450	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+165	-220	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+260	-300	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+235	-275	Under
NSH S. Wright	0.5	+500	-900	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NSH J. Saros	27.5	-115	-115	30	Over
LAK A. Forsberg	24.5	+105	-125	27	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
LAK B. Clarke	2.5	+100	-140	5	Over
LAK J. Edmundson	1.5	-130	-110	1	Under
NSH N. Perbix	1.5	-135	-105	5	Over
NSH R. Josi	1.5	-155	+110	0	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

MilestoneDarcy Kuemper LAK Plays his 500th game0 saves on 0
MilestoneQuinton Byfield LAK 3 points from 200Not yet: 4 SOG
MilestoneRoman Josi NSH 1 point from 800Not yet: 3 SOG
Old teamErik Haula LAK First game against NSH since he left (his team until Apr 2026)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.9, LAK 3.2	NSH 3, LAK 0
Total goals	6.1	3
Shots on goal	NSH 25.9, LAK 29.6	NSH 30, LAK 30
Win chance	LAK 55%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Panarin	3.1	3	1.22	0	36%	0
LAK A. Kempe	3.0	3	0.99	0	37%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	3.0	5	0.75	0	27%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	2.9	3	0.98	2	34%	2
LAK Q. Byfield	2.5	4	0.72	0	27%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.5	3	0.81	0	17%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.4	2	0.83	0	33%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.3	1	0.51	0	21%	0
NSH M. Bourque	2.0	5	0.55	0	21%	0
NSH R. Colton	1.9	2	0.45	0	20%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.8	1	0.83	0	26%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.8	1	0.47	0	22%	0
LAK M. Zuccarello	1.6	1	0.68	0	19%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.5	3	0.43	0	8%	0
LAK S. Laughton	1.5	1	0.31	0	14%	0
NSH A. Edstrom	1.4	3	0.35	0	19%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.4	0	0.34	0	15%	0
NSH J. Drury	1.4	0	0.39	0	14%	0
LAK E. Haula	1.3	1	0.36	0	15%	0
NSH S. Wright	1.3	4	0.43	0	18%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.2	0	0.42	0	9%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.2	1	0.33	1	7%	1
NSH B. Skjei	1.2	1	0.34	1	8%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	1	0.22	0	4%	0
NSH N. Hoglander	1.1	0	0.29	2	13%	0
NSH V. Pinchuk	1.1	1	0.24	0	11%	0
LAK A. Lee	1.0	1	0.25	0	11%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	2	0.24	0	6%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.9	0	0.18	0	9%	0
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.9	1	0.36	0	11%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.8	1	0.26	0	5%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.8	2	0.16	0	3%	0
NSH D. Hunt	0.8	0	0.16	0	4%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.7	0	0.21	0	4%	0
NSH J. Struble	0.5	1	0.16	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.