MIN beat NSH 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.54 expected goals to 2.99. K. Kaprizov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Blankenburg had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. F. Gustavsson stopped 25 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| MIN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 18:57MIND. Chisholm0.04 xG
- 1st 19:39NSHF. Svechkov0.17 xG
- 2nd 2:29NSHR. O'ReillyPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 8:24MINK. KaprizovPP0.38 xG
- OT 1:00MINJ. Spurgeon0.20 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 2.99 xGMIN 2.54 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:59 | 2:49 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:43 | 2:34 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 9:57 | 0:40 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 9:10 | 0:42 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:05 | 2:52 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:39 | 2:34 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:05 | 0:58 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:58 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:09 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 24:36 | 2:50 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:49 | 0:43 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:31 | 0:00 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:15 | 0:00 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 14:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 28 | 25 | 3 | .893 | 60:46 | OT loss |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:34 | 2:27 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:25 | 2:27 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:05 | 1:03 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:16 | 2:22 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:34 | 2:09 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:13 | 1:02 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:05 | 0:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 7 | 15:22 | 0:00 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 1:02 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:12 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:33 | 0:00 |
| B. Jones | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:05 | 2:24 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:58 | 1:07 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 26:39 | 1:08 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25:06 | 0:14 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 61:00 | Win |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 2.8, MIN 3.1 | NSH 2, MIN 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 28.9, MIN 30.6 | NSH 27, MIN 28 |
| Win chance | MIN 56% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.6 | 5 | 1.32 | 2 | 45% | 1 |
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.4 | 1 | 0.90 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.3 | 5 | 0.92 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.1 | 1 | 0.75 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 3.0 | 0 | 0.87 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.8 | 3 | 0.67 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.5 | 4 | 0.77 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.2 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.1 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.9 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 1.8 | 0 | 0.37 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.7 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.7 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.6 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.5 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.5 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.4 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.3 | 4 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.2 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH M. Jankowski | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| NSH A. Carrier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.0 | 4 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 0.9 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 0.9 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN B. Jones | 0.9 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.7 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.4 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 14 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.