Game Recap: NSH 2, MIN 3 (OT), November 4, 2025

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Game Recap

NSH2

Final/OTTue, Nov 4, 2025Every game that night

MIN3

MIN beat NSH 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.74 expected goals to 3.25. NSH outshot MIN 34 to 24. K. Kaprizov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). F. Gustavsson stopped 32 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NSH	0	1	1	0	2
MIN	1	1	0	1	3

1st 10:44MINK. KaprizovPP0.06 xG
2nd 5:16NSHM. Wood0.22 xG
2nd 16:01MINZ. BuiumPP0.07 xG
3rd 19:59NSHS. Stamkos0.03 xG
OT 3:38MINM. Johansson0.40 xG

Team Stats

NSHMIN

34Shots on goal24

3.25Expected goals3.74

74Shot attempts56

215v5 shots on goal17

0/2Power play2/3

13Hits22

11Blocked shots22

6Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways18

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 3.25 xGMIN 3.74 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH33 on goal, 2 scored

MIN25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. McCarron	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	16:40	0:00
T. Jost	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	15:51	0:00
S. Stamkos	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	2	15:42	2:10
M. Wood	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	+1	0	12:07	2:05
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	20:16	1:49
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	19:59	2:09
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	0	19:53	1:42
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:38	1:55
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	16:26	1:51
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	2	12:13	2:07
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:43	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	11:36	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	22:51	2:18
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	24:54	1:43
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	19:56	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	19:06	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	17:06	0:11
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	2	14:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	24	22	3	.917	61:12	OT loss
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	2	25:14	3:18
M. Johansson	LW	1	1	2	0	0	0	+1	0	15:14	1:10
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	15:10	3:01
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	20:21	3:01
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	19:38	3:19
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:34	1:27
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:07	1:27
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:35	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	8	3	0	0	16:02	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	8:29	0:00
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	7:02	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	5:43	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	2	2	0	1	6	0	0	27:24	1:45
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	22:02	2:43
Z. Buium	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	13:02	1:09
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	23:27	0:00
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	3	2	4	-1	0	22:29	0:00
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	2	11:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	34	32	2	.941	63:03	Win
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1R. O'Reilly13:51L. Evangelista14:18F. Forsberg14:28

Line 2T. Jost13:17M. McCarron13:32O. Wiesblatt11:20

Line 3E. Haula11:26J. Marchessault13:34S. Stamkos9:55

Line 4M. Wood10:02F. Svechkov10:18M. Bunting9:13

Pair 1B. Skjei18:01N. Perbix16:50

Pair 2N. Hague17:19N. Blankenburg16:00

Pair 3J. Barron14:27S. Stastney14:44

MIN

Line 1V. Hinostroza17:01R. Hartman16:33M. Foligno14:07

Line 2K. Kaprizov16:25M. Rossi14:22M. Johansson12:53

Line 3J. Ek10:51M. Boldy11:10V. Tarasenko12:09

Line 4Y. Trenin7:30B. Jones6:48T. Pitlick5:43

Pair 1J. Brodin19:15B. Faber19:11

Pair 2J. Spurgeon16:04J. Middleton18:51

Pair 3D.Jiricek11:56Z. Buium11:46

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMichael McCarron MIN Faces NSH, his team until Mar 20261 A, 0 SOG
Old teamYakov Trenin MIN Faces NSH, his team until Mar 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.7, MIN 3.3	NSH 2, MIN 3
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	NSH 28.0, MIN 29.6	NSH 34, MIN 24
Win chance	MIN 60%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.8	4	1.48	2	48%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.4	1	1.07	0	33%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.3	1	0.86	0	33%	0
MIN J. Ek	3.1	3	0.80	0	28%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.5	1	0.60	0	23%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.5	2	0.67	0	29%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.2	2	0.70	1	30%	1
NSH L. Evangelista	2.2	1	0.48	0	16%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.1	4	0.50	0	12%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.9	2	0.68	1	24%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.8	4	0.65	0	24%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.8	1	0.67	0	23%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.7	0	0.38	2	10%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.7	0	0.53	2	17%	1
NSH M. Bunting	1.7	2	0.47	0	19%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.7	4	0.41	0	18%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.7	1	0.51	1	13%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.5	4	0.35	1	12%	1
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.5	2	0.33	1	8%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.3	0	0.24	1	10%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.3	1	0.33	0	13%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.3	1	0.26	0	13%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.3	3	0.38	0	9%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.3	3	0.32	0	6%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	0	0.23	1	11%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.2	0	0.22	0	11%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.2	0	0.19	0	4%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	0	0.36	0	15%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.1	3	0.26	0	8%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.1	2	0.25	0	7%	0
MIN Z. Buium	1.1	1	0.39	1	7%	1
NSH O. Wiesblatt	1.0	2	0.21	0	8%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.9	0	0.19	0	7%	0
MIN B. Jones	0.9	2	0.06	0	5%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.8	1	0.23	0	4%	0
MIN D.Jiricek	0.8	0	0.19	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.