Game Recap: NSH 3, MIN 2 (OT), December 23, 2025

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Game Recap

NSH3

Final/OTTue, Dec 23, 2025Every game that night

MIN2

NSH beat MIN 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.02 expected goals to 2.82. S. Stamkos led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). K. Kaprizov had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. J. Saros stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NSH	2	0	0	1	3
MIN	1	1	0	0	2

1st 7:00MINB. Faber0.03 xG
1st 14:28NSHR. O'ReillyPP0.19 xG
1st 17:07NSHR. JosiPP0.07 xG
2nd 0:52MINJ. Eriksson Ek0.54 xG
OT 0:53NSHS. Stamkos0.14 xG

Team Stats

NSHMIN

29Shots on goal32

3.02Expected goals2.82

53Shot attempts50

145v5 shots on goal26

2/4Power play0/3

22Hits27

10Blocked shots9

8Penalty minutes10

13Giveaways13

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 3.02 xGMIN 2.82 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH28 on goal, 3 scored

MIN31 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	-2	2	22:45	5:25
S. Stamkos	C	1	1	2	4	3	0	-1	0	18:24	5:30
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	3	4	0	-2	0	20:20	5:30
L. Evangelista	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	17:36	5:18
E. Haula	LW	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	15:12	0:16
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	15:19	0:04
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	14:59	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:33	0:21
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	11:03	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:45	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:56	0:00
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	9:36	0:00
R. Josi	D	1	0	1	4	0	3	-1	0	24:42	5:46
N. Blankenburg	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	2	18:52	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	19:45	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	18:34	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	18:05	0:16
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	32	30	2	.938	60:49	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	1	1	8	1	0	+1	2	25:38	3:54
J. Eriksson Ek	C	1	0	1	4	2	0	+1	2	17:26	3:05
M. Johansson	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:52	2:10
N. Sturm	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	10:39	0:00
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	19:18	2:58
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	18:56	3:28
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:55	3:51
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	12:53	2:29
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	11:54	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	10:19	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	7	1	+1	0	9:32	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	8:59	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	29:11	4:06
B. Faber	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	+2	0	25:12	1:53
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:30	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	2	16:56	1:52
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:55	0:14
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	12:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	29	26	3	.897	60:24	OT loss
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1R. O'Reilly13:59F. Forsberg13:18S. Stamkos11:45

Line 2M. Bunting12:08E. Haula11:38L. Evangelista12:14

Line 3M. McCarron11:42C. Smith11:15R. Schaefer10:45

Line 4M. Wood10:52F. Svechkov9:13T. Jost8:35

Pair 1N. Blankenburg16:46N. Hague17:09

Pair 2R. Josi16:54N. Perbix14:22

Pair 3A. Wilsby14:39B. Skjei13:11

MIN

Line 1M. Zuccarello15:10R. Hartman16:16K. Kaprizov19:27

Line 2V. Tarasenko10:24D. Yurov11:54Y. Trenin8:14

Line 3M. Foligno9:03V. Hinostroza10:19N. Sturm8:10

Line 4J. Ek9:49M. Boldy9:50M. Johansson9:36

Pair 1Q. Hughes22:04B. Faber17:37

Pair 2J. Brodin15:15J. Spurgeon12:54

Pair 3Z. Bogosian12:12J. Middleton12:11

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMichael McCarron MIN Faces NSH, his team until Mar 20262 SOG
Old teamYakov Trenin MIN Faces NSH, his team until Mar 20242 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.7, MIN 3.1	NSH 3, MIN 2
Total goals	5.7	5
Shots on goal	NSH 29.0, MIN 28.6	NSH 29, MIN 32
Win chance	MIN 57%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.4	8	1.29	1	45%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.3	0	1.09	0	35%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.1	3	0.78	1	32%	0
MIN J. Ek	3.0	4	0.79	1	27%	1
MIN Q. Hughes	2.6	1	1.10	1	16%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.6	4	0.69	1	16%	1
NSH L. Evangelista	2.4	4	0.53	1	17%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.3	4	0.68	2	30%	1
MIN R. Hartman	2.3	2	0.56	0	23%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.0	1	0.83	0	21%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	2.0	0	0.64	0	23%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	2	0.70	2	24%	1
NSH M. Bunting	1.9	1	0.46	0	19%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.9	2	0.46	1	12%	1
NSH B. Skjei	1.8	1	0.37	0	9%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.7	1	0.39	1	16%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.6	2	0.36	0	16%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.6	1	0.55	1	17%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.4	1	0.30	1	7%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.4	2	0.31	0	14%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.4	3	0.47	0	15%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.3	1	0.38	0	10%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	2	0.21	0	10%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.2	1	0.24	0	9%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.2	0	0.27	0	6%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.2	2	0.36	0	8%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.1	0	0.21	0	4%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.1	1	0.21	0	8%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.1	1	0.20	0	9%	0
MIN N. Sturm	1.1	1	0.25	1	11%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.1	1	0.19	0	5%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	1	0.31	0	14%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.0	0	0.25	0	10%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.9	1	0.21	0	5%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.9	2	0.24	0	6%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.9	0	0.23	0	13%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.