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Game Recap
NSH0
MTL3
MTL beat NSH 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.23 expected goals to 3.32. J. Evans led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Caufield had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. S. Montembeault stopped 29 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MTL | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
Team Stats
NSHMTL
29Shots on goal30
3.32Expected goals4.23
72Shot attempts50
195v5 shots on goal19
0/5Power play1/3
19Hits26
11Blocked shots23
6Penalty minutes8
19Giveaways8
6Takeaways11
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 3.32 xGMTL 4.23 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:38 | 8:06 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:52 | 7:17 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 21:09 | 6:41 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:43 | 7:20 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:45 | 0:00 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:00 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:59 | 2:07 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:51 | 2:06 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:58 | 2:43 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:04 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 27:40 | 7:13 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:06 | 2:06 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:36 | 1:13 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:06 | 0:05 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:19 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:03 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Annunen | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 58:04 | Loss |
| J. Saros | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Evans | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:15 | 0:00 |
| P. Laine | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:05 | 3:53 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:06 | 3:53 |
| J. Armia | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:00 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:37 | 3:49 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:50 | 3:53 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:42 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:19 | 0:42 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:22 | 0:42 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:10 | 0:42 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 19:27 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 | 3:53 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 28:17 | 0:46 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 21:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 29 | 29 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:56 | Win |
| C. Primeau | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 3.0, MTL 2.9 | NSH 0, MTL 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 30.0, MTL 27.3 | NSH 29, MTL 30 |
| Win chance | NSH 52% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.7 | 4 | 1.01 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.1 | 6 | 0.76 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 3.1 | 1 | 1.06 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 3.0 | 5 | 0.76 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.7 | 3 | 0.87 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 2.3 | 3 | 0.67 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.1 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.1 | 2 | 0.85 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.9 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.9 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 1.8 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.7 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.6 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.6 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.6 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.5 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.3 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.2 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH M. Jankowski | 1.2 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.1 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH A. Carrier | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 2 | 0.42 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| MTL J. Barron | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH J. Parssinen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.8 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.