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Game Recap
NSH2
MTL3
MTL beat NSH 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.00 expected goals to 2.72. MTL outshot NSH 30 to 19. C. Caufield led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Dobes stopped 17 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| MTL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
- 2nd 11:36NSHS. StamkosPP0.11 xG
- 3rd 6:02MTLO. Kapanen0.04 xG
- 3rd 11:21NSHN. Perbix0.13 xG
- 3rd 19:40MTLC. Caufield0.04 xG
- OT 4:57MTLC. Caufield0.24 xG
Team Stats
NSHMTL
19Shots on goal30
2.72Expected goals4.00
53Shot attempts57
125v5 shots on goal21
1/2Power play0/3
16Hits13
12Blocked shots17
6Penalty minutes4
15Giveaways12
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 2.72 xGMTL 4.00 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Stamkos | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:14 | 3:06 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:43 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 14:45 | 0:00 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:04 | 2:00 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:09 | 3:06 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:26 | 2:48 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:25 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:35 | 1:31 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:31 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:00 |
| O. Wiesblatt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:11 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 28:13 | 3:31 |
| N. Perbix | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:00 | 0:00 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:03 | 0:25 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:00 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 30 | 27 | 3 | .900 | 64:30 | OT loss |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Caufield | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:54 | 3:46 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:54 | 3:46 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:39 | 3:43 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:13 | 2:12 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:03 | 2:06 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:49 | 3:44 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:00 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:27 | 0:05 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:03 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:49 | 2:16 |
| P. Laine | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:10 | 2:13 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 24:42 | 4:04 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 26:21 | 0:06 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:10 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:37 | 1:56 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Dobes | 19 | 17 | 2 | .895 | 63:35 | Win |
| S. Montembeault | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NSH
Line 1S. Stamkos12:51R. O'Reilly12:56F. Forsberg12:37
Line 2E. Haula12:24M. Bunting13:04J. Marchessault11:53
Line 3L. Evangelista12:45F. Svechkov11:48T. Jost12:25
Line 4M. McCarron11:43O. Wiesblatt10:11C. Smith11:16
Pair 3S. Stastney13:30J. Barron13:40
MTL
Line 1C. Caufield13:46J. Slafkovský14:20N. Suzuki14:28
Line 2J. Anderson11:58J. Evans10:57P. Laine9:57
Line 3A. Newhook13:15O. Kapanen11:12I. Demidov12:10
Line 4K. Dach11:56Z. Bolduc11:12B. Gallagher10:48
Pair 1M. Matheson20:23N. Dobson14:14
Pair 3A. Carrier15:10J. Struble13:52
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 3.0, MTL 3.1 | NSH 2, MTL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 27.8, MTL 26.3 | NSH 19, MTL 30 |
| Win chance | MTL 53% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.3 | 2 | 0.95 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.1 | 4 | 0.86 | 2 | 33% | 2 |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.7 | 2 | 0.80 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.5 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 2.3 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.3 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.1 | 4 | 1.04 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.1 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.0 | 0 | 0.48 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 2.0 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.0 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.9 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 1.9 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.9 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.9 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.8 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH E. Haula | 1.8 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH T. Jost | 1.4 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.4 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.82 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.1 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH O. Wiesblatt | 1.0 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH N. Perbix | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 0.9 | 3 | 0.23 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stastney | 0.6 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.