Game Recap: NSH 5, MTL 2, October 8, 2026

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Game Recap

NSH5

FinalThu, Oct 8, 2026Every game that night

MTL2

NSH beat MTL 5-2, with the chances close: 3.25 expected goals to 3.46. MTL outshot NSH 34 to 20. A. Edstrom led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Caufield had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. J. Saros stopped 32 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	2	3	5
MTL	0	2	0	2

2nd 3:12MTLN. Suzuki0.06 xG
2nd 8:50MTLA. Newhook0.25 xG
2nd 15:06NSHA. Kerfoot0.09 xG
2nd 19:28NSHM. WoodPP0.34 xG
3rd 16:44NSHR. O'ReillyPP0.11 xG
3rd 17:23NSHA. EdstromEN0.92 xG
3rd 18:34NSHA. EdstromEN0.50 xG

Team Stats

NSHMTL

20Shots on goal34

3.25Expected goals3.46

45Shot attempts65

105v5 shots on goal28

2/5Power play0/3

18Hits15

16Blocked shots9

6Penalty minutes20

20Giveaways14

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 3.25 xGMTL 3.46 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH20 on goal, 5 scored

MTL33 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Stamkos	C	0	2	2	2	2	0	-1	0	20:46	6:01
A. Kerfoot	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	0	14:46	1:05
A. Edstrom	C	2	0	2	2	2	2	+2	0	10:19	0:08
R. O'Reilly	C	1	0	1	2	1	2	-2	2	23:04	5:35
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	3	1	1	+2	0	19:48	6:02
J. Drury	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	16:41	0:10
M. Wood	RW	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	2	13:29	2:07
R. Colton	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	12:15	0:10
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:06	4:34
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	12:48	0:40
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	9:36	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:15	0:41
R. Josi	D	0	2	2	2	1	2	+1	0	27:49	6:05
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	21:29	0:54
A. Wilsby	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	20:41	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	20:47	0:13
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	18:42	0:00
W. Trudeau	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	34	32	2	.941	60:00	Win
M. Murray	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	0	21:01	3:12
A. Newhook	C	1	0	1	1	4	0	-2	0	17:02	1:11
J. Anderson	RW	0	1	1	4	3	0	+1	4	14:24	0:08
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	18:38	0:05
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	6	0	0	-1	0	18:00	3:10
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-2	0	17:24	3:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:51	1:12
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	14:59	2:51
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:43	1:14
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:38	0:00
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:42	1:05
F. Xhekaj	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	6:24	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	2	24:43	3:11
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	23:42	0:18
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	21:57	0:06
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	2	20:44	1:27
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	10	11:59	0:00
A. Engstrom	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	11:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Fowler	18	15	3	.833	58:53	Loss
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos13:44R. O'Reilly15:20J. Marchessault12:40

Line 2R. Colton12:05J. Drury13:10A. Edstrom9:56

Line 3N. Hoglander12:08F. Forsberg12:12M. Wood9:27

Line 4M. Bourque6:40R. Schaefer9:03A. Kerfoot10:58

Pair 1B. Skjei16:33N. Perbix16:46

Pair 2R. Josi18:54N. Hague18:04

Pair 3A. Wilsby17:41W. Trudeau4:39

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki15:05J. Slafkovský13:17C. Caufield13:07

Line 2A. Texier12:29Z. Bolduc14:39P. Danault13:45

Line 3C. Kreider10:03A. Newhook11:47J. Anderson13:04

Line 4J. Evans7:54K. Dach6:37F. Xhekaj6:24

Pair 1N. Dobson16:01L. Hutson19:47

Pair 2M. Matheson17:41A. Carrier16:22

Pair 3A. Engstrom11:06A. Xhekaj10:52

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

5 of 18 overs hit (28%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
MTL C. Caufield	3.5	+120	-140	6	Over
NSH F. Forsberg	3.5	+150	-200	3	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.5	+115	-120	5	Over
MTL N. Suzuki	2.5	+104	-130	1	Under
NSH R. Josi	2.5	+105	-115	2	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	-115	-110	2	Under
MTL A. Newhook	1.5	-114	+100	1	Under
MTL A. Texier	1.5	+120	-150	1	Under
MTL C. Kreider	1.5	-155	+135	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	1.5	-130	+115	0	Under
MTL L. Hutson	1.5	-135	+105	4	Over
NSH M. Bourque	1.5	-125	-105	0	Under
MTL M. Matheson	1.5	-115	-110	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	1.5	-105	+105	1	Under
MTL N. Dobson	1.5	-178	+140	3	Over
NSH N. Hoglander	1.5	+135	-155	1	Under
NSH R. Colton	1.5	-120	-105	1	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.5	-160	+130	2	Over

6 of 35 overs hit (17%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
MTL A. Carrier	0.5	+1600	-3500	0	Under
NSH A. Edstrom	0.5	+950	-1600	2	Over
MTL A. Engstrom	0.5	+2100	-2800	0	Under
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+550	-800	1	Over
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+340	-500	1	Over
MTL A. Texier	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
NSH A. Wilsby	0.5	+2400	-5000	0	Under
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+1000	-2800	0	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	+140	-165	0	Under
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+240	-320	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+210	-225	0	Under
MTL F. Xhekaj	0.5	+625	-1200	0	Under
MTL J. Anderson	0.5	+625	-900	0	Under
NSH J. Drury	0.5	+900	-1400	0	Under
MTL J. Evans	0.5	+700	-1000	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+480	-650	0	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	+205	-250	0	Under
MTL K. Dach	0.5	+460	-700	0	Under
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	+550	-750	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+430	-650	0	Under
MTL M. Matheson	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+340	-500	1	Over
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+700	-1000	0	Under
NSH N. Hague	0.5	+1900	-4000	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+320	-400	0	Under
NSH N. Perbix	0.5	+1800	-4000	0	Under
MTL N. Suzuki	0.5	+185	-225	1	Over
MTL P. Danault	0.5	+600	-800	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+440	-700	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+525	-750	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+290	-400	1	Over
NSH R. Schaefer	0.5	+950	–	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+225	-250	0	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+400	-750	0	Under

5 of 19 overs hit (26%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+310	-500	1	Over
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+295	-525	0	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	+125	-154	0	Under
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+185	-250	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+135	-155	1	Over
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+235	-285	0	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	+135	-160	0	Under
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	-135	+105	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+300	-500	0	Under
MTL M. Matheson	0.5	+215	-300	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+255	-285	0	Under
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+190	-190	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+320	-600	0	Under
MTL N. Suzuki	0.5	-155	+140	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+280	-500	1	Over
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+100	-105	2	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+125	-140	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+165	-200	2	Over
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+320	-650	0	Under

8 of 19 overs hit (42%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
MTL N. Suzuki	1.5	+180	-205	1	Under
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+175	-230	2	Over
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+145	-180	1	Over
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	-200	+160	0	Under
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	-115	+100	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	-160	+145	1	Over
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+150	-165	0	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	-155	+135	0	Under
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	-150	+135	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+165	-200	0	Under
MTL M. Matheson	0.5	+169	-220	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+130	-150	1	Over
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+140	-150	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+165	-220	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+160	-220	1	Over
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-140	+125	2	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	-150	+125	1	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	-135	+115	2	Over
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+190	-260	0	Under

5 of 16 overs hit (31%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MTL A. Texier	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	+140	-190	0	Under
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+270	-425	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+185	-250	1	Over
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+400	-1000	0	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	+170	-235	0	Under
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	+180	-185	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+280	-450	1	Over
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MTL N. Suzuki	0.5	+140	-165	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+210	-250	1	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+220	-295	1	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+195	-275	2	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NSH J. Saros	26.5	-102	-125	32	Over
MTL J. Fowler	23.5	-122	-105	15	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
MTL M. Matheson	1.5	-145	–	1	Under
MTL N. Dobson	1.5	-180	–	1	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 3.1, MTL 3.3	NSH 5, MTL 2
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	NSH 27.8, MTL 27.3	NSH 20, MTL 34
Win chance	MTL 54%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	3.3	6	0.99	0	39%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.1	3	1.02	1	38%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.7	2	0.88	2	37%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.5	5	0.86	0	28%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.5	2	0.85	2	19%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.5	1	1.19	1	31%	1
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.1	2	0.89	1	28%	1
NSH J. Marchessault	2.0	0	0.61	0	26%	0
NSH M. Bourque	2.0	0	0.51	0	21%	0
MTL N. Dobson	1.9	3	0.55	0	13%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.8	1	0.56	1	23%	1
MTL C. Kreider	1.8	0	0.69	0	30%	0
NSH R. Colton	1.7	1	0.34	1	15%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.7	4	0.40	1	20%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.6	1	0.48	1	21%	1
MTL L. Hutson	1.6	4	0.99	0	13%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.3	0	0.37	0	9%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.3	2	0.43	0	18%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.3	0	0.37	1	9%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.2	1	0.44	0	14%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.2	1	0.40	0	15%	0
NSH A. Kerfoot	1.2	1	0.46	2	16%	1
MTL P. Danault	1.2	2	0.42	0	14%	0
NSH N. Hoglander	1.1	1	0.31	0	15%	0
NSH J. Drury	1.1	2	0.28	1	11%	0
NSH A. Edstrom	1.1	2	0.19	2	11%	2
NSH A. Wilsby	1.1	0	0.27	1	3%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.0	0	0.31	0	12%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.0	1	0.23	0	5%	0
MTL F. Xhekaj	1.0	1	0.22	0	9%	0
NSH N. Hague	0.9	0	0.19	0	5%	0
MTL A. Engstrom	0.8	0	0.14	0	4%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.7	1	0.31	0	7%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.5	2	0.08	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.