Game Recap: NSH 4, NYI 3, January 31, 2026

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Game Recap

NSH4

FinalSat, Jan 31, 2026Every game that night

NYI3

NSH beat NYI 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 5.09 expected goals to 2.94. NSH outshot NYI 42 to 30. F. Forsberg led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Bunting had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. J. Saros stopped 27 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	2	1	1	4
NYI	2	1	0	3

1st 1:29NYIM. Barzal0.08 xG
1st 5:57NYIM. Schaefer0.14 xG
1st 9:59NSHF. ForsbergPP0.04 xG
1st 12:53NSHM. Wood0.24 xG
2nd 7:21NYIJ. Pageau0.15 xG
2nd 14:11NSHF. Forsberg0.11 xG
3rd 18:46NSHR. Josi0.03 xG

Team Stats

NSHNYI

42Shots on goal30

5.09Expected goals2.94

71Shot attempts45

325v5 shots on goal27

1/2Power play0/2

25Hits23

6Blocked shots10

18Penalty minutes6

11Giveaways18

8Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 5.09 xGNYI 2.94 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH42 on goal, 4 scored

NYI30 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	2	0	2	4	1	0	+1	0	16:58	2:05
M. Wood	RW	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	0	8:02	0:00
E. Haula	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	17:14	0:03
S. Stamkos	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	15:15	2:03
J. Marchessault	RW	0	1	1	5	2	0	0	12	12:17	2:00
T. Jost	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9:31	0:00
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	19:05	2:01
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	17:15	0:06
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	2	15:59	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	2	15:24	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	5	0	1	-1	0	15:20	0:05
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:08	0:00
R. Josi	D	1	1	2	5	2	1	+1	0	29:15	1:57
A. Wilsby	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	2	18:35	0:01
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	27:39	0:09
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:49	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:43	0:00
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	30	27	3	.900	60:00	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barzal	C	1	1	2	3	1	1	0	0	19:04	2:10
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	16:45	1:42
A. Duclair	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:07	2:09
A. Lee	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	13:44	2:16
J. Pageau	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	13:21	0:00
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	20:18	1:39
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	19:13	1:40
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:31	1:33
M. Shabanov	RW	0	0	0	4	1	1	+1	0	14:12	2:12
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:37	0:08
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	10:00	0:08
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	8:52	0:08
M. Schaefer	D	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	23:25	1:39
T. DeAngelo	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	22:36	2:25
R. Pulock	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	19:16	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+2	4	19:18	0:11
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	15:30	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	15:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	42	38	4	.905	58:50	Loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1E. Haula13:53M. Bunting14:56L. Evangelista16:30

Line 2M. McCarron12:52C. Smith12:27O. Wiesblatt11:08

Line 3S. Stamkos11:46R. O'Reilly13:38F. Forsberg13:32

Line 4T. Jost9:31M. Wood8:02

Pair 1R. Josi22:15B. Skjei21:21

Pair 2N. Perbix14:54A. Wilsby17:03

Pair 3A. Englund12:31J. Barron11:59

NYI

Line 1A. Duclair13:58M. Barzal15:02M. Shabanov12:00

Line 2O. Palat14:28B. Horvat14:20E. Heineman14:33

Line 3J. Pageau11:48S. Holmstrom13:36A. Lee11:28

Line 4K. MacLean9:52M. Gatcomb8:44C. Cizikas9:14

Pair 1R. Pulock16:07M. Schaefer18:50

Pair 2A. Pelech16:25T. DeAngelo18:24

Pair 3S. Mayfield15:06C. Soucy14:40

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.8, NYI 3.3	NSH 4, NYI 3
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	NSH 27.0, NYI 29.3	NSH 42, NYI 30
Win chance	NYI 58%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.1	4	0.87	2	34%	2
NYI B. Horvat	3.0	3	0.81	0	33%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.9	5	0.84	2	19%	1
NYI A. Lee	2.4	2	0.60	1	24%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.3	1	0.73	1	32%	0
NYI E. Heineman	2.3	3	0.55	0	25%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.3	3	0.89	2	23%	1
NSH L. Evangelista	2.2	2	0.60	0	17%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.1	3	0.67	1	18%	1
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.1	0	0.56	1	12%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	1	0.81	0	27%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.0	5	0.52	1	24%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.7	5	0.44	0	18%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.7	4	0.39	0	10%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.5	2	0.58	1	24%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.5	3	0.35	1	15%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.4	0	0.30	0	5%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.4	2	0.64	1	25%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.4	2	0.22	0	11%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.3	0	0.23	0	11%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	2	0.50	1	17%	1
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.2	0	0.22	0	13%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	2	0.37	1	7%	0
NYI M. Shabanov	1.1	4	0.39	0	12%	0
NYI O. Palat	1.1	1	0.35	0	15%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	2	0.31	0	12%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.1	3	0.21	1	4%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.1	2	0.22	2	11%	1
NSH T. Jost	1.0	0	0.19	1	8%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	2	0.22	0	5%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.9	1	0.20	0	9%	0
NYI C. Soucy	0.9	0	0.20	0	7%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	0	0.19	0	4%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.7	1	0.14	0	6%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.6	1	0.14	0	5%	0
NSH A. Englund	0.5	1	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.