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Game Recap
NSH0
NYR4
NYR beat NSH 4-0, with the chances close: 2.83 expected goals to 2.95. A. Panarin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Del Gaizo had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Quick stopped 34 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NYR | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 8:32NYRA. Panarin0.11 xG
- 2nd 1:02NYRJ. MillerPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 3:25NYRK. Miller0.06 xG
- 3rd 16:57NYRB. Berard0.13 xG
Team Stats
NSHNYR
34Shots on goal34
2.95Expected goals2.83
74Shot attempts59
295v5 shots on goal28
0/2Power play1/5
20Hits33
14Blocked shots20
27Penalty minutes11
15Giveaways12
7Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 2.95 xGNYR 2.83 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:06 | 2:30 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:52 | 1:50 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:49 | 1:14 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:52 | 1:25 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:23 | 1:47 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:01 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 | 1:36 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:16 | 0:00 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:36 | 1:29 |
| K. Bellows | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:21 | 1:15 |
| J. Lucchini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:33 | 0:00 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:33 | 2:09 |
| M. Del Gaizo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:48 | 0:00 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:37 | 1:10 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:12 | 0:09 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 16:58 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:00 |
| A. Englund | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 17 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Annunen | 34 | 30 | 4 | .882 | 60:00 | Loss |
| J. Saros | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:03 | 6:18 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:42 | 6:09 |
| J. Miller | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:21 | 6:09 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:07 | 1:53 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:30 | 0:09 |
| B. Berard | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 10:57 | 0:00 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:28 | 6:02 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:05 | 1:36 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:17 | 1:37 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:10 |
| B. Othmann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:56 | 1:25 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8:11 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:34 | 1:31 |
| C. de Haan | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 16:26 | 0:00 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:15 | 6:24 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:58 | 0:00 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:45 | 0:00 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:12 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Quick | 34 | 34 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| I. Shesterkin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 2.6, NYR 3.3 | NSH 0, NYR 4 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 28.6, NYR 30.0 | NSH 34, NYR 34 |
| Win chance | NYR 62% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.6 | 2 | 0.91 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.0 | 7 | 1.19 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.9 | 5 | 0.74 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.6 | 3 | 0.83 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.5 | 2 | 0.93 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.4 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.2 | 1 | 0.62 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.1 | 2 | 1.03 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 2.0 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.0 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.9 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 1.8 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR B. Berard | 1.5 | 5 | 0.35 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR B. Othmann | 1.4 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.4 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.4 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.3 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH M. Gaizo | 1.2 | 6 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH K. Bellows | 1.2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.1 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR C. Haan | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR J. Parssinen | 0.8 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH J. Lucchini | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stastney | 0.6 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH A. Englund | 0.5 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.