Game Recap: NSH 3, NYR 6, November 10, 2025

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Game Recap

NSH3

FinalMon, Nov 10, 2025Every game that night

NYR6

NYR beat NSH 6-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.13 expected goals to 2.83. NSH outshot NYR 30 to 18. M. Wood scored three for NSH. M. Wood had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. I. Shesterkin stopped 27 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	1	0	2	3
NYR	2	3	1	6

1st 10:39NYRM. Zibanejad0.21 xG
1st 16:16NSHM. WoodPP0.48 xG
1st 18:07NYRV. Gavrikov0.06 xG
2nd 1:23NYRA. LafrenièrePP0.16 xG
2nd 7:51NYRA. Panarin0.04 xG
2nd 19:50NYRW. Cuylle0.23 xG
3rd 12:48NSHM. WoodPP0.10 xG
3rd 13:30NYRA. Panarin0.10 xG
3rd 19:15NSHM. Wood0.14 xG

Team Stats

NSHNYR

30Shots on goal18

2.83Expected goals2.13

58Shot attempts35

185v5 shots on goal16

2/4Power play1/2

15Hits31

6Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes8

14Giveaways17

2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.83 xGNYR 2.13 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH30 on goal, 3 scored

NYR18 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Wood	RW	3	0	3	6	0	1	0	0	17:09	3:38
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:22	1:39
L. Evangelista	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	16:53	1:00
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	5	2	0	0	2	16:23	2:03
E. Haula	LW	0	1	1	0	2	1	-1	0	16:17	0:41
M. Bunting	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:52	3:36
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	18:03	4:21
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	18:03	4:17
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3	0	14:02	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	0	13:31	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	11:37	0:00
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	2	9:24	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	21:46	1:14
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	0	21:50	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	20:36	4:03
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:39	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	16:07	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	15:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	12	7	5	.583	39:57	Loss
J. Annunen	6	5	1	.833	19:53

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lafrenière	LW	1	2	3	2	1	1	+3	0	15:09	1:00
A. Panarin	LW	2	0	2	4	0	0	+2	0	17:48	2:20
V. Trocheck	C	0	2	2	0	6	1	+2	4	17:26	1:00
M. Zibanejad	C	1	0	1	3	3	0	+1	0	18:20	1:37
W. Cuylle	LW	1	0	1	2	6	1	+1	0	17:06	1:37
G. Perreault	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	14:08	1:25
N. Laba	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	14:05	0:00
J. Miller	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	+1	0	17:54	1:12
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:28	0:17
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:04	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	10:02	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:25	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	2	2	0	0	2	+2	0	20:24	1:55
V. Gavrikov	D	1	1	2	3	0	1	+2	0	20:10	0:00
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	18:31	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	2	20:12	0:42
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	19:54	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	18:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	30	27	3	.900	59:57	Win
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1E. Haula14:28J. Marchessault13:46S. Stamkos13:39

Line 2R. O'Reilly14:57F. Forsberg14:17L. Evangelista15:50

Line 3T. Jost13:31M. McCarron11:57O. Wiesblatt8:49

Line 4M. Wood13:31F. Svechkov10:48M. Bunting10:13

Pair 1B. Skjei19:30N. Perbix20:39

Pair 2N. Hague16:58N. Blankenburg16:33

Pair 3A. Wilsby15:59S. Stastney14:35

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad15:00J. Miller14:27G. Perreault12:40

Line 2A. Panarin15:25A. Lafrenière14:06V. Trocheck15:06

Line 3T. Raddysh14:11N. Laba13:43W. Cuylle13:28

Line 4C. Sheary9:13A. Edstrom10:02S. Carrick8:40

Pair 1U. Vaakanainen18:01B. Schneider18:43

Pair 2V. Gavrikov17:28A. Fox17:07

Pair 3C. Soucy16:42W. Borgen15:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.6, NYR 3.2	NSH 3, NYR 6
Total goals	5.9	9
Shots on goal	NSH 26.9, NYR 28.6	NSH 30, NYR 18
Win chance	NYR 60%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.3	5	0.91	1	34%	0
NYR A. Panarin	3.1	4	1.29	2	36%	2
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.8	3	1.02	1	31%	1
NSH J. Marchessault	2.5	2	0.69	0	28%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.4	0	1.17	0	32%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.3	1	0.54	1	17%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.3	2	0.60	1	23%	1
NSH S. Stamkos	2.2	2	0.72	0	30%	0
NYR A. Fox	2.1	0	1.02	2	19%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.0	2	0.69	3	24%	1
NYR V. Trocheck	2.0	0	0.73	2	23%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	1	0.70	1	24%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.7	2	0.41	1	11%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.7	6	0.40	3	13%	3
NSH E. Haula	1.7	0	0.43	1	17%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.7	1	0.49	1	19%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.5	2	0.45	0	15%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.4	5	0.33	0	7%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.4	3	0.36	2	8%	1
NYR T. Raddysh	1.4	0	0.35	0	14%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.4	1	0.33	1	15%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.3	0	0.25	0	9%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.2	0	0.28	0	11%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	0	0.24	0	11%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.2	0	0.36	1	16%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.1	2	0.27	0	6%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.1	1	0.19	0	5%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.1	0	0.17	0	3%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	1	0.29	0	8%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.1	0	0.21	0	10%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	0	0.26	0	6%	0
NYR C. Soucy	1.0	0	0.23	0	8%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	1.0	0	0.19	0	8%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.8	0	0.21	0	10%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.8	0	0.22	1	3%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.7	2	0.20	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.