Game Recap: NSH 4, OTT 1, October 13, 2025

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Game Recap

NSH4

FinalMon, Oct 13, 2025Every game that night

OTT1

NSH beat OTT 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.35 expected goals to 3.06. J. Marchessault led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Stützle had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Saros stopped 31 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	1	3	4
OTT	0	0	1	1

2nd 12:11NSHJ. Marchessault0.14 xG
3rd 14:38NSHR. O'Reilly0.26 xG
3rd 17:57OTTR. GreigPP0.14 xG
3rd 19:06NSHJ. MarchessaultEN0.81 xG
3rd 19:48NSHC. SmithEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

NSHOTT

26Shots on goal32

4.35Expected goals3.06

55Shot attempts66

185v5 shots on goal22

0/6Power play1/5

20Hits29

14Blocked shots15

10Penalty minutes10

12Giveaways17

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 4.35 xGOTT 3.06 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH26 on goal, 4 scored

OTT32 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Marchessault	RW	2	0	2	3	3	1	+2	0	18:46	6:34
R. O'Reilly	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	20:06	5:54
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+2	0	19:42	6:02
S. Stamkos	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	17:22	6:23
C. Smith	RW	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	0	15:49	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	15:42	4:12
E. Haula	LW	0	1	1	0	2	1	+2	4	14:01	1:04
L. Evangelista	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	11:33	3:43
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	+1	0	16:23	0:11
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	11:11	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	10:06	2:44
J. Kemell	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:46	2:52
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	4	1	1	+3	2	24:54	6:32
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	22:56	4:06
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	17:15	0:54
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	17:02	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+2	0	15:35	0:02
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	13:43	0:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	32	31	1	.969	60:00	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Greig	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	18:26	1:55
D. Cozens	C	0	1	1	3	7	0	-3	0	16:43	3:34
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	6	3	2	-1	0	22:31	4:25
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	4	19:20	2:58
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	16:34	2:36
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-2	0	14:50	2:07
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	13:53	3:19
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	13:29	0:02
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	12:41	0:00
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	2	12:24	2:08
O. Lycksell	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	8:18	0:00
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:14	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	-1	0	25:58	3:52
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	22:22	1:53
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-2	0	17:44	0:07
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	17:42	0:00
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	2	15:51	0:04
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	-1	2	13:53	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	24	22	2	.917	57:07	Loss
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1R. O'Reilly11:42F. Forsberg10:58J. Kemell6:54

Line 2J. Marchessault10:57M. Bunting11:30E. Haula9:53

Line 3M. McCarron11:22C. Smith11:09T. Jost10:25

Line 4L. Evangelista7:16F. Svechkov6:34S. Stamkos9:29

Pair 1R. Josi13:36A. Wilsby13:20

Pair 2B. Skjei14:11N. Perbix12:55

Pair 3S. Stastney12:44J. Barron12:25

OTT

Line 1B. Tkachuk9:48T. Stützle13:10F. Zetterlund10:52

Line 2S. Pinto11:42R. Greig10:13C. Giroux9:06

Line 3D. Perron9:04D. Cozens10:33M. Amadio9:18

Line 4N. Cousins8:14O. Lycksell8:18L. Eller8:04

Pair 1T. Kleven12:54J. Spence15:15

Pair 2J. Sanderson14:22A. Zub11:22

Pair 3N. Jensen11:58T. Chabot13:07

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.9, OTT 3.1	NSH 4, OTT 1
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	NSH 27.8, OTT 28.5	NSH 26, OTT 32
Win chance	OTT 54%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.9	2	0.86	0	32%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.4	2	0.92	1	35%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.6	4	0.78	1	18%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.5	3	0.69	2	29%	2
OTT J. Sanderson	2.4	3	0.64	1	13%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.4	3	0.67	1	22%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.3	2	0.80	1	33%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.2	0	0.59	0	14%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.2	2	0.48	1	17%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	6	0.95	0	26%	0
NSH M. Bunting	2.1	0	0.52	1	21%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	2	0.66	0	26%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	2.0	3	0.45	0	18%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	1	0.69	1	25%	1
NSH B. Skjei	1.9	1	0.45	0	12%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.8	0	0.39	1	18%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.7	0	0.54	0	21%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.7	2	0.47	1	17%	1
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	2	0.62	0	19%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.4	1	0.47	0	20%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.4	2	0.27	0	10%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.4	2	0.32	0	15%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	2	0.24	0	12%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.3	1	0.20	0	4%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.2	1	0.24	0	9%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.2	2	0.22	1	9%	1
OTT T. Kleven	1.1	1	0.20	0	6%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	2	0.31	0	7%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.1	0	0.25	0	9%	0
OTT L. Eller	1.1	0	0.25	0	11%	0
OTT O. Lycksell	1.0	1	0.31	0	8%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.0	1	0.26	0	5%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	0	0.26	0	5%	0
OTT J. Spence	0.7	3	0.23	0	4%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.6	1	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.