SEA beat NSH 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.19 expected goals to 2.42. SEA outshot NSH 37 to 24. C. Stephenson led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). D. Sprong had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Daccord stopped 24 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SEA | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
- 2nd 15:55SEAD. Sprong0.13 xG
- 3rd 0:23SEAB. Montour0.10 xG
- 3rd 17:17SEAY. GourdeEN0.56 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 2.42 xGSEA 3.19 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:15 | 4:18 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:36 | 5:20 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:23 | 2:20 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:39 | 4:41 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:09 | 5:21 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:00 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:24 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:11 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:13 | 0:25 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:48 | 0:40 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 25:54 | 5:20 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:53 | 0:33 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:56 | 0:07 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 17:37 | 0:12 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:08 |
| M. Del Gaizo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 36 | 34 | 2 | .944 | 58:35 | Loss |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 19:32 | 3:48 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 17:45 | 3:54 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:25 | 0:07 |
| D. Sprong | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:10 | 3:57 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:09 | 3:55 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:54 | 4:05 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:07 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 | 3:49 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:46 | 3:50 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:35 | 4:04 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:00 | 0:07 |
| B. Meyers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:47 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 18:22 | 4:26 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:34 | 0:17 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:15 | 3:27 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +3 | 0 | 19:10 | 0:07 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:20 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 24 | 24 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 2.9, SEA 2.9 | NSH 0, SEA 3 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 28.5, SEA 28.4 | NSH 24, SEA 37 |
| Win chance | NSH 51% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.3 | 4 | 0.91 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.9 | 0 | 0.80 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.8 | 3 | 0.88 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.6 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.6 | 5 | 0.67 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.5 | 5 | 0.60 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 2.4 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.3 | 2 | 0.58 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.9 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA D. Sprong | 1.9 | 6 | 0.47 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.7 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.7 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.7 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA Y. Gourde | 1.6 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.4 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.4 | 4 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.4 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.71 | 3 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH P. Tomasino | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 1.3 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH M. Gaizo | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH J. Lauzon | 1.1 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH A. Carrier | 1.0 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH J. Parssinen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 0.9 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA W. Borgen | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA B. Meyers | 0.6 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.