Game Recap: NSH 1, SEA 4, January 1, 2026

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Game Recap

NSH1

FinalThu, Jan 1, 2026Every game that night

SEA4

SEA beat NSH 4-1, with the chances close: 2.34 expected goals to 1.91. M. Beniers led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. McCarron had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. P. Grubauer stopped 24 of 25.

Team Stats

NSHSEA

25Shots on goal23

1.91Expected goals2.34

64Shot attempts52

225v5 shots on goal22

1/2Power play0/1

23Hits20

16Blocked shots21

2Penalty minutes4

19Giveaways16

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 1.91 xGSEA 2.34 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH25 on goal, 1 scored

SEA22 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	21:26	1:52
L. Evangelista	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	18:55	1:52
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	0	20:19	1:50
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	19:16	1:52
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:35	0:55
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	4	4	1	0	0	14:24	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	2	5	0	-1	0	13:36	0:00
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	2	12:48	0:54
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:23	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	11:25	0:00
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	11:25	0:54
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	9:26	0:00
R. Josi	D	1	0	1	3	0	2	-3	0	23:48	1:51
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	20:39	0:54
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	19:51	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	18:13	0:56
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	17:54	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	17:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	22	19	3	.864	57:49	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Beniers	C	2	0	2	2	0	0	+3	0	17:55	1:37
J. Eberle	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+4	0	16:02	1:02
J. McCann	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	14:28	0:58
K. Kakko	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	13:32	0:23
R. Winterton	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	11:46	0:00
J. Melanson	RW	0	1	1	1	5	0	0	0	11:05	0:00
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	17:58	0:00
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	1	5	5	0	0	17:38	1:02
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:20	1:02
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	14:18	0:58
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	13:28	0:00
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:11	0:58
R. Evans	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+2	0	20:48	0:58
J. Oleksiak	D	1	0	1	1	0	4	+2	0	18:27	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	17:52	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	+2	2	22:43	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	2	20:40	1:02
C. Fleury	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	25	24	1	.960	60:00	Win
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos15:13R. O'Reilly16:37F. Forsberg16:58

Line 2M. McCarron13:09C. Smith12:21R. Schaefer12:23

Line 3M. Bunting13:56E. Haula11:54L. Evangelista14:52

Line 4F. Svechkov11:25M. Wood10:31T. Jost9:26

Pair 1N. Hague19:07N. Blankenburg16:03

Pair 2R. Josi19:33N. Perbix16:32

Pair 3B. Skjei17:53A. Wilsby17:22

SEA

Line 1F. Gaudreau16:16E. Tolvanen14:34C. Stephenson13:58

Line 2J. Eberle13:22M. Beniers14:24K. Kakko13:09

Line 3B. Catton13:20S. Wright12:13J. McCann11:48

Line 4B. Meyers12:44R. Winterton11:46J. Melanson11:05

Pair 1A. Larsson19:14V. Dunn19:18

Pair 2R. Evans19:28J. Oleksiak16:57

Pair 3R. Lindgren14:04C. Fleury17:35

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMatthew Wood SEA First game against NSH since he left (his team until Oct 2026)0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.8, SEA 3.2	NSH 1, SEA 4
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	NSH 27.8, SEA 27.9	NSH 25, SEA 23
Win chance	SEA 57%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.1	1	0.87	0	34%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.5	3	0.71	1	16%	1
SEA J. McCann	2.5	4	0.80	1	30%	1
NSH L. Evangelista	2.4	1	0.61	1	18%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.3	2	0.76	0	32%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	2.3	1	0.72	0	27%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.3	1	0.73	1	25%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.0	0	0.67	0	15%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.9	3	0.77	1	25%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.9	2	0.63	2	22%	2
NSH M. Bunting	1.8	1	0.44	0	19%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.7	1	0.38	0	9%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.6	3	0.40	0	16%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.5	2	0.50	1	18%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.5	0	0.80	0	23%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.5	0	0.48	0	20%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.4	1	0.51	0	20%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.4	0	0.31	0	14%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	2	0.34	0	9%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	4	0.22	0	10%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.2	0	0.28	0	6%	0
SEA C. Fleury	1.2	0	0.14	0	3%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.1	3	0.32	0	11%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.1	2	0.21	0	9%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.1	1	0.24	0	10%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.1	2	0.18	1	9%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.1	0	0.27	0	6%	0
SEA B. Meyers	1.0	1	0.21	0	11%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.0	0	0.19	0	4%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.0	1	0.21	0	8%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	1	0.22	1	6%	1
NSH N. Hague	0.9	1	0.19	0	4%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.9	2	0.28	1	5%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.8	1	0.24	0	14%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.8	0	0.34	1	8%	0
SEA J. Melanson	0.8	1	0.20	1	8%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.