Game Recap: NSH 4, SEA 2, March 10, 2026

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Game Recap

NSH4

FinalTue, Mar 10, 2026Every game that night

SEA2

NSH beat SEA 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.71 expected goals to 3.86. SEA outshot NSH 45 to 27. J. Marchessault led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). F. Gaudreau had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Saros stopped 43 of 45.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	3	1	4
SEA	2	0	0	2

1st 2:14SEAK. Kakko0.23 xG
1st 9:46SEAM. Beniers0.03 xG
2nd 4:14NSHT. Jost0.09 xG
2nd 10:19NSHR. Schaefer0.26 xG
2nd 14:25NSHR. Ufko0.09 xG
3rd 19:55NSHS. StamkosEN0.45 xG

Team Stats

NSHSEA

27Shots on goal45

2.71Expected goals3.86

61Shot attempts70

245v5 shots on goal39

0/1Power play0/1

13Hits23

8Blocked shots18

7Penalty minutes7

13Giveaways13

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.71 xGSEA 3.86 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH26 on goal, 4 scored

SEA45 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Marchessault	RW	0	2	2	1	1	0	+2	0	17:56	1:33
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	19:39	1:35
S. Stamkos	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	0	19:20	1:34
M. Wood	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	12:11	0:25
F. Svechkov	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	11:32	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	11:09	0:00
T. Jost	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	9:52	0:00
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	19:34	1:35
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	18:25	0:26
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:03	0:27
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	14:51	0:00
J. Kemell	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	7:11	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+2	0	24:31	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	23:24	0:25
R. Ufko	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	13:05	0:28
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	-1	0	24:42	1:32
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	0	22:06	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7	10:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	45	43	2	.956	59:44	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. McCann	LW	0	1	1	4	2	0	-1	0	19:26	1:27
M. Beniers	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	5	17:58	0:00
K. Kakko	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	2	14:30	0:37
S. Wright	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:26	0:35
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	20:21	1:25
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	19:55	1:25
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	7	1	1	-1	0	17:15	1:23
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	5	6	5	0	0	16:41	0:33
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	14:27	0:35
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-2	0	9:28	0:00
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	8:51	0:00
J. Melanson	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	8:25	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-2	0	21:54	1:23
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	-1	0	24:42	0:37
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	19:42	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	-1	0	19:31	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:28	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	26	23	3	.885	58:11	Loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos15:57J. Marchessault14:48R. O'Reilly16:05

Line 2F. Forsberg17:27L. Evangelista17:29E. Haula15:29

Line 3T. Jost9:00F. Svechkov11:32R. Schaefer11:09

Line 4Z. L'Heureux13:43M. Wood11:46

Pair 1N. Hague23:02N. Perbix19:54

Pair 2R. Josi21:20B. Skjei20:21

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle16:57J. McCann16:10M. Beniers15:54

Line 2C. Stephenson15:25E. Tolvanen15:09F. Gaudreau15:18

Line 3S. Wright13:35B. Catton13:36K. Kakko13:37

Line 4R. Winterton9:17J. Melanson8:25B. Meyers8:17

Pair 1B. Montour22:00R. Lindgren18:11

Pair 2A. Larsson17:57V. Dunn18:42

Pair 3J. Oleksiak14:22R. Evans16:43

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMatthew Wood SEA First game against NSH since he left (his team until Oct 2026)1 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 3.1, SEA 3.2	NSH 4, SEA 2
Total goals	6.3	6
Shots on goal	NSH 29.2, SEA 26.8	NSH 27, SEA 45
Win chance	SEA 52%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.3	2	0.87	0	35%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.9	4	0.86	0	18%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.7	3	0.61	0	19%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.5	4	0.84	1	30%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.4	3	0.78	1	33%	1
NSH J. Marchessault	2.4	1	0.63	2	28%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.2	1	0.60	0	17%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.2	2	0.83	1	27%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.1	3	0.71	0	24%	0
SEA M. Beniers	2.0	3	0.66	1	24%	1
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.9	5	0.55	0	22%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.8	2	0.64	1	14%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.7	2	0.43	0	18%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.6	1	0.36	1	8%	0
NSH J. Kemell	1.6	0	0.22	0	12%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.5	2	0.52	1	21%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.5	3	0.34	1	17%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.4	2	0.33	0	9%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.4	3	0.50	1	17%	1
SEA B. Meyers	1.4	1	0.32	0	15%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.3	2	0.22	1	9%	1
SEA B. Catton	1.2	3	0.28	0	13%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.2	1	0.24	0	10%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	2	0.71	0	20%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.2	0	0.23	1	5%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.1	2	0.33	0	8%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.1	7	0.40	0	15%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.0	1	0.24	0	5%	0
SEA J. Melanson	1.0	1	0.24	0	11%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.0	1	0.24	0	6%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	0.9	2	0.20	1	8%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.9	1	0.20	1	11%	1
NSH J. Barron	0.8	0	0.16	0	5%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.7	0	0.27	0	7%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.6	1	0.20	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.