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Game Recap
NSH6
SJS5
NSH beat SJS 6-5, and the chances backed it up: 4.33 expected goals to 2.62. M. Granlund led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). M. Celebrini had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. J. Annunen stopped 30 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| SJS | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
- 1st 3:58NSHG. NyquistPP0.11 xG
- 1st 4:52NSHT. Novak0.13 xG
- 1st 6:53NSHF. Forsberg0.02 xG
- 1st 8:12SJSW. Duehr0.11 xG
- 1st 16:34SJSM. Ferraro0.09 xG
- 2nd 1:38NSHF. Forsberg0.27 xG
- 2nd 7:07NSHS. StamkosPP0.67 xG
- 2nd 12:39SJSH. Thrun0.12 xG
- 2nd 13:54SJSF. Zetterlund0.07 xG
- 2nd 15:21SJSM. CelebriniPP0.14 xG
- 3rd 8:16NSHF. SvechkovPP0.04 xG
Team Stats
NSHSJS
38Shots on goal35
4.33Expected goals2.62
67Shot attempts58
275v5 shots on goal17
3/5Power play1/4
13Hits23
16Blocked shots14
36Penalty minutes27
11Giveaways8
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 4.33 xGSJS 2.62 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 16:39 | 1:46 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:47 | 4:50 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:56 | 1:58 |
| T. Novak | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:24 | 1:55 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:23 | 0:04 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:54 | 1:42 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 4:58 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16:03 | 4:58 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 19:52 | 4:52 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14:26 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:38 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 7:39 | 0:00 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:32 | 1:49 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:31 | 5:04 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:00 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20:50 | 0:04 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Annunen | 35 | 30 | 5 | .857 | 59:55 | Win |
| J. Saros | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 20:24 | 4:41 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:36 | 2:52 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:12 | 4:36 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:37 | 5:21 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:18 | 3:19 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:17 | 3:31 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 14:27 | 2:38 |
| W. Duehr | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:52 | 0:00 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:44 | 4:23 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14:48 | 0:00 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 7 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 7:49 | 0:00 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 17:13 | 1:25 |
| H. Thrun | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:05 | 2:14 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:51 | 4:59 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:49 | 0:06 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Askarov | 38 | 32 | 6 | .842 | 58:08 | Loss |
| A. Georgiev | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 3.5, SJS 2.6 | NSH 6, SJS 5 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 32.9, SJS 26.9 | NSH 38, SJS 35 |
| Win chance | NSH 63% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.6 | 6 | 1.14 | 2 | 39% | 2 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 3.3 | 4 | 1.01 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 3.3 | 2 | 1.10 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.0 | 8 | 0.79 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.6 | 4 | 1.01 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.6 | 4 | 0.65 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| SJS J. Walman | 2.2 | 4 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.2 | 2 | 0.51 | 3 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.1 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 2.0 | 2 | 0.75 | 3 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.9 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.7 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.6 | 3 | 0.55 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.5 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.5 | 1 | 0.72 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.5 | 3 | 0.39 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.4 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH V. Hinostroza | 1.4 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 1.4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.4 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.3 | 4 | 0.33 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.1 | 4 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS N. Kovalenko | 0.9 | 0 | 0.33 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| SJS W. Duehr | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.