Game Recap: NSH 3, SJS 2, March 11, 2025

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Game Recap

NSH3

FinalTue, Mar 11, 2025Every game that night

SJS2

NSH beat SJS 3-2, with the chances close: 2.30 expected goals to 2.43. SJS outshot NSH 27 to 19. F. Forsberg led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). F. Svechkov had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Saros stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	2	1	3
SJS	0	0	2	2

2nd 8:11NSHF. ForsbergPP0.05 xG
2nd 15:17NSHS. StamkosPP0.17 xG
3rd 3:42SJSP. Giles0.16 xG
3rd 3:56SJSC. Graf0.24 xG
3rd 6:32NSHK. Bellows0.03 xG

Team Stats

NSHSJS

19Shots on goal27

2.30Expected goals2.43

42Shot attempts52

125v5 shots on goal23

2/5Power play0/2

23Hits15

12Blocked shots13

14Penalty minutes20

13Giveaways8

9Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.30 xGSJS 2.43 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH19 on goal, 3 scored

SJS27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	1	1	2	5	0	0	+1	0	21:02	5:00
S. Stamkos	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-2	0	19:50	6:35
F. Svechkov	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	14:46	2:23
K. Bellows	LW	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	2	11:41	0:00
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	20:25	5:33
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	19:36	6:35
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	5	17:31	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:55	0:00
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	15:47	1:37
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	13:10	1:33
J. Vrana	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:03	1:32
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	2	21:45	3:36
N. Blankenburg	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	-1	0	20:14	6:08
M. Del Gaizo	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	16:36	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:18	0:00
J. Oesterle	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	14:47	0:13
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	14:18	0:00
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	10:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	27	25	2	.926	59:34	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Smith	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	17:46	3:03
C. Graf	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	15:39	0:59
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	1	1	2	4	0	+1	0	12:15	0:00
P. Giles	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	8:26	0:00
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	23:02	3:10
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	22:36	3:19
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	20:56	2:52
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	19:08	3:17
K. Kostin	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:05	0:51
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:42	0:40
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:27	0:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	7	10:24	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	2	23:13	0:10
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	21:17	0:43
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	2	17:49	0:56
J. Schuldt	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:22	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	7	16:53	0:00
M. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	13:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Georgiev	19	16	3	.842	58:07	Loss
G. Romanov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayJustus Annunen NSH Turns 25 that day0 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 3.4, SJS 2.8	NSH 3, SJS 2
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	NSH 31.6, SJS 28.0	NSH 19, SJS 27
Win chance	NSH 59%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.5	5	1.09	2	39%	1
SJS M. Celebrini	3.3	2	0.88	0	27%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.8	0	0.88	0	34%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.8	5	0.73	0	30%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.6	1	0.98	1	37%	1
NSH L. Evangelista	2.2	3	0.53	0	19%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.1	0	0.82	0	27%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.1	1	0.55	1	15%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.9	2	0.69	1	21%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.8	2	0.74	0	20%	0
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.5	2	0.24	1	13%	0
NSH M. Gaizo	1.5	0	0.31	0	5%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.4	4	0.37	1	17%	0
NSH J. Vrana	1.4	0	0.42	0	21%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.4	2	0.34	1	10%	0
NSH K. Bellows	1.4	1	0.27	1	12%	1
NSH M. McCarron	1.4	0	0.31	0	15%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.3	1	0.42	0	14%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.3	1	0.29	0	11%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.3	3	0.33	0	10%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.2	0	0.34	0	11%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	2	0.25	0	8%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	0	0.48	0	14%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.1	1	0.33	1	11%	1
NSH J. Oesterle	1.0	0	0.25	0	5%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	1.0	1	0.40	0	7%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	1.0	1	0.24	0	11%	0
SJS K. Kostin	1.0	1	0.35	0	15%	0
SJS M. Vlasic	0.9	1	0.22	0	6%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.9	0	0.20	0	8%	0
SJS N. Kovalenko	0.9	0	0.36	0	12%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.8	0	0.25	0	6%	0
SJS P. Giles	0.7	3	0.12	1	7%	1
NSH A. Englund	0.6	0	0.15	0	3%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.5	0	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.