Game Recap: NSH 6, SJS 3, April 4, 2026

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Game Recap

NSH6

FinalSat, Apr 4, 2026Every game that night

SJS3

NSH beat SJS 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.19 expected goals to 2.89. F. Forsberg led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). L. Evangelista had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Saros stopped 24 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	3	0	3	6
SJS	0	2	1	3

1st 8:38NSHF. ForsbergPP0.12 xG
1st 9:54NSHF. Forsberg0.72 xG
1st 16:55NSHS. StamkosPP0.15 xG
2nd 15:49SJSN. Leddy0.12 xG
2nd 19:41SJSM. Celebrini0.14 xG
3rd 1:06SJSA. Wennberg0.17 xG
3rd 8:28NSHR. O'Reilly0.19 xG
3rd 17:26NSHE. HaulaSH0.14 xG
3rd 18:45NSHT. JostEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

NSHSJS

34Shots on goal27

4.19Expected goals2.89

64Shot attempts56

265v5 shots on goal20

2/4Power play0/4

25Hits32

17Blocked shots17

14Penalty minutes14

13Giveaways14

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 4.19 xGSJS 2.89 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH34 on goal, 6 scored

SJS27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	2	1	3	2	1	0	0	0	19:45	2:48
T. Jost	C	1	2	3	2	1	3	+3	0	15:40	0:11
R. O'Reilly	C	1	1	2	1	0	1	+1	0	21:26	2:48
J. Marchessault	RW	0	1	1	3	3	0	-2	0	17:01	2:33
E. Haula	LW	1	0	1	4	3	2	0	0	16:54	0:06
S. Stamkos	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	2	16:14	2:48
L. Evangelista	RW	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	12:46	0:26
M. Wood	RW	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	4	11:46	0:11
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:23	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:48	0:00
J. Kemell	RW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	7:26	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:25	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	2	2	4	1	3	+1	4	27:07	2:54
A. Wilsby	D	0	2	2	1	3	1	+2	0	21:32	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	3	3	2	-1	4	25:14	0:26
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	23:55	0:14
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	17:22	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	27	24	3	.889	59:42	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	1	0	1	5	2	0	-1	0	23:40	4:34
A. Wennberg	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	0	20:31	4:33
C. Graf	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	17:03	0:00
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	2	14:49	1:58
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	2	18:52	4:32
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-3	0	14:52	4:27
I. Chernyshov	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	14:15	0:45
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	2	13:00	0:47
M. Misa	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	11:10	0:44
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:49	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	4	10:09	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	9:39	0:00
N. Leddy	D	1	1	2	2	1	2	+2	0	20:42	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	3	1	2	-2	2	22:41	4:30
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	+2	0	20:58	0:48
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	+1	0	20:44	0:01
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	-1	0	16:34	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	13:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	33	28	5	.848	58:43	Loss
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1F. Forsberg14:38J. Marchessault13:11E. Haula11:57

Line 2S. Stamkos12:53R. O'Reilly14:06Z. L'Heureux13:54

Line 3L. Evangelista12:20T. Jost11:31M. Wood10:01

Line 4J. Kemell7:08R. Schaefer7:07F. Svechkov10:28

Pair 1R. Josi19:52B. Skjei21:09

Pair 2J. Barron14:43A. Wilsby17:33

Pair 3N. Perbix17:20N. Hague2:34

SJS

Line 1M. Celebrini15:47W. Smith14:12C. Graf13:17

Line 2K. Sherwood11:30W. Eklund11:20A. Wennberg13:37

Line 3T. Toffoli10:17M. Misa10:26I. Chernyshov13:28

Line 4B. Goodrow8:25A. Gaudette9:21Z. Ostapchuk7:43

Pair 1N. Leddy18:14S. Dickinson17:17

Pair 2D. Orlov16:37V. Desharnais15:29

Pair 3M. Ferraro12:41S. Mukhamadullin12:44

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKiefer Sherwood SJS Faces NSH, his team until May 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 3.2, SJS 3.3	NSH 6, SJS 3
Total goals	6.5	9
Shots on goal	NSH 26.9, SJS 28.8	NSH 34, SJS 27
Win chance	SJS 51%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.6	5	1.28	1	36%	1
NSH F. Forsberg	2.8	2	0.94	3	35%	2
SJS W. Smith	2.4	3	0.89	0	28%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.3	4	0.84	2	20%	0
SJS K. Sherwood	2.3	1	0.50	0	23%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.1	2	0.79	1	33%	1
NSH J. Marchessault	2.1	3	0.70	1	28%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.1	2	0.61	0	24%	0
SJS W. Eklund	2.0	1	0.59	1	17%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.9	1	0.82	2	26%	1
NSH L. Evangelista	1.8	5	0.54	1	16%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.6	2	0.30	3	13%	1
SJS I. Chernyshov	1.6	2	0.56	0	17%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.5	3	0.48	1	19%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.4	4	0.41	1	17%	1
NSH M. Wood	1.4	3	0.45	1	20%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.3	1	0.27	0	13%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.3	0	0.47	0	17%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.3	3	0.42	0	11%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	2	0.61	1	17%	1
SJS A. Gaudette	1.2	0	0.29	0	16%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.2	3	0.48	1	10%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.2	2	0.27	0	4%	0
NSH J. Kemell	1.2	2	0.18	0	11%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	0	0.27	0	6%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.0	0	0.24	0	6%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	1.0	0	0.27	0	7%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	0.9	0	0.28	0	10%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	0.9	1	0.23	2	3%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	0	0.18	0	9%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.8	1	0.20	0	5%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.8	0	0.19	0	11%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.7	0	0.12	0	7%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.7	0	0.20	0	6%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.6	1	0.15	0	2%	0
SJS N. Leddy	0.6	2	0.25	2	4%	1

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.