Game Recap: NSH 4, STL 7, December 27, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

NSH4

FinalFri, Dec 27, 2024Every game that night

STL7

STL beat NSH 7-4, with the chances close: 2.55 expected goals to 2.84. C. Fowler led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). D. Holloway had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Hofer stopped 26 of 30.

Team Stats

NSHSTL

30Shots on goal30

2.84Expected goals2.55

59Shot attempts46

225v5 shots on goal22

2/4Power play1/4

27Hits26

7Blocked shots19

15Penalty minutes15

14Giveaways12

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.84 xGSTL 2.55 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH29 on goal, 4 scored

STL29 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Marchessault	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	-1	0	21:26	4:00
S. Stamkos	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	-2	0	21:04	3:58
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	-3	0	19:54	3:53
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-3	0	19:20	3:16
M. Jankowski	LW	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	2	13:54	0:04
C. Sissons	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	12:48	0:04
M. McCarron	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	11:38	0:04
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	17:33	1:49
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:09	1:16
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	14:43	1:03
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:55	1:00
N. Blankenburg	D	1	0	1	1	1	2	0	2	16:52	0:20
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	5	1	0	-3	2	26:27	3:03
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-3	0	19:50	1:58
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	2	16:11	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	2	6	0	+1	7	15:52	0:29
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	12:25	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	6:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	16	11	5	.688	35:03	Loss
J. Annunen	13	12	1	.923	21:04

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	2	0	2	4	0	1	+2	0	19:50	4:43
D. Holloway	LW	0	2	2	5	3	0	+1	0	17:08	3:54
J. Kyrou	RW	1	1	2	3	0	2	0	2	16:35	4:42
O. Sundqvist	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:11	0:51
Z. Bolduc	RW	1	0	1	2	2	1	+3	0	11:13	1:13
N. Walker	LW	0	1	1	0	6	1	+1	0	11:06	0:00
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	19:44	4:40
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:00	1:19
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	14:49	1:09
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	14:04	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	2	11:19	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	+1	0	11:16	0:00
C. Fowler	D	1	2	3	4	0	6	+2	2	21:48	4:35
C. Parayko	D	1	0	1	2	2	2	0	0	22:27	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	2	22:24	1:23
P. Broberg	D	1	0	1	2	1	2	+2	0	20:45	0:27
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	17:54	0:00
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	7	9:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	30	26	4	.867	60:00	Win
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamRyan O'Reilly NSH Faces STL, his team until Feb 20231 A, 3 SOG
BirthdayJonathan Marchessault NSH Turns 34 that day1 G, 1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 3.0, STL 3.1	NSH 4, STL 7
Total goals	6.1	11
Shots on goal	NSH 29.4, STL 28.4	NSH 30, STL 30
Win chance	STL 51%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.2	2	0.91	1	34%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	3.0	2	0.79	2	34%	1
STL J. Kyrou	2.7	3	0.82	2	31%	1
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	3	0.83	2	33%	1
NSH R. Josi	2.4	5	0.73	0	18%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.2	1	0.81	0	28%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.1	5	0.50	2	23%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.0	1	0.43	0	16%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.0	2	0.43	0	12%	0
STL J. Faulk	2.0	1	0.49	1	10%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.9	4	0.98	2	24%	2
STL J. Neighbours	1.9	0	0.48	0	25%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.8	1	0.59	0	20%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.7	2	0.38	1	10%	1
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.7	3	0.63	1	23%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.5	1	0.37	0	16%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.4	2	0.39	1	15%	1
NSH G. Nyquist	1.4	0	0.65	0	20%	0
NSH T. Novak	1.4	0	0.46	0	17%	0
STL B. Saad	1.4	0	0.41	0	19%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.2	1	0.23	1	8%	1
NSH M. Jankowski	1.2	2	0.31	1	13%	1
STL A. Toropchenko	1.2	0	0.23	0	12%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.2	3	0.23	0	6%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.2	4	0.43	3	8%	1
NSH L. Schenn	1.2	0	0.14	0	4%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.1	2	0.30	0	10%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.1	1	0.24	1	13%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.1	2	0.36	1	8%	1
NSH C. Sissons	1.1	1	0.27	1	12%	0
NSH J. Lauzon	1.0	2	0.13	0	4%	0
STL N. Walker	1.0	0	0.24	1	12%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.8	2	0.30	1	12%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.8	1	0.17	0	7%	0
STL R. Suter	0.8	0	0.22	0	4%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.6	1	0.11	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.