Game Recap: NSH 1, STL 4, March 23, 2025

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Game Recap

NSH1

FinalSun, Mar 23, 2025Every game that night

STL4

STL beat NSH 4-1, with the chances close: 3.10 expected goals to 3.53. NSH outshot STL 32 to 18. R. Thomas led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). D. Holloway had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Binnington stopped 31 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	1	0	1
STL	2	0	2	4

1st 12:13STLJ. Kyrou0.07 xG
1st 16:57STLA. TexierPP0.29 xG
2nd 1:04NSHF. ForsbergPP0.11 xG
3rd 10:30STLJ. Faulk0.12 xG
3rd 19:22STLB. SchennEN0.80 xG

Team Stats

NSHSTL

32Shots on goal18

3.53Expected goals3.10

64Shot attempts38

195v5 shots on goal14

1/4Power play1/2

26Hits23

8Blocked shots11

23Penalty minutes38

17Giveaways19

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 3.53 xGSTL 3.10 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH32 on goal, 1 scored

STL18 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Stamkos	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	-1	0	20:19	6:29
F. Forsberg	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	-2	0	18:35	6:57
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	2	18:51	6:40
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	2	17:34	5:32
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	2	17:07	2:41
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:59	2:21
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:30	0:03
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	13:29	1:16
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	13:17	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	10	13:15	0:00
K. Bellows	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	12:17	0:39
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	5	11:12	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	2	20:30	5:48
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	23:51	2:20
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	19:12	0:10
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	16:57	0:14
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:20	0:00
M. Del Gaizo	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	15:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	17	14	3	.824	57:00	Loss
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	0	3	3	0	0	0	+3	0	19:09	2:23
J. Neighbours	LW	0	2	2	0	3	0	+2	0	12:03	0:00
B. Schenn	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	18:30	1:50
D. Holloway	LW	0	1	1	5	1	0	+1	0	18:27	1:50
J. Kyrou	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	15:32	1:50
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	15	13:05	0:33
A. Texier	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	10:25	0:33
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	15:15	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	15:01	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:54	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	15	12:18	0:00
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:40	0:33
J. Faulk	D	1	1	2	3	0	1	+2	0	23:19	0:00
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	20:25	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	6	19:35	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	18:49	0:33
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	18:28	0:00
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	15:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	32	31	1	.969	59:54	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.8, STL 3.2	NSH 1, STL 4
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	NSH 27.1, STL 27.6	NSH 32, STL 18
Win chance	STL 57%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.2	5	0.88	1	34%	1
STL J. Kyrou	2.5	2	0.80	1	30%	1
NSH J. Marchessault	2.4	3	0.68	0	29%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.2	3	0.75	1	32%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.2	5	0.72	1	24%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.9	0	0.95	3	24%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	1.9	1	0.42	0	16%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.9	1	0.43	0	13%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.8	4	0.64	0	24%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.7	3	0.50	0	20%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.7	1	0.65	1	21%	1
STL J. Faulk	1.7	3	0.53	2	10%	1
STL Z. Bolduc	1.6	1	0.50	1	20%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.5	0	0.38	0	11%	0
NSH M. Gaizo	1.4	2	0.21	0	4%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.4	0	0.49	2	22%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.3	2	0.28	1	8%	0
STL A. Texier	1.3	2	0.37	1	15%	1
NSH F. Svechkov	1.3	1	0.32	0	14%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	1	0.23	0	12%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.2	0	0.28	0	12%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.2	0	0.32	0	11%	0
NSH K. Bellows	1.2	1	0.23	0	11%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.2	1	0.32	0	12%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.1	1	0.49	0	10%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.1	3	0.25	0	10%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.1	1	0.25	0	9%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.1	0	0.22	0	9%	0
STL N. Walker	1.0	1	0.30	0	14%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.0	1	0.24	0	9%	0
STL T. Tucker	1.0	0	0.20	0	8%	0
STL R. Suter	0.8	1	0.22	0	4%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.7	0	0.19	0	5%	0
STL M. Kessel	0.6	0	0.15	0	3%	0
NSH A. Englund	0.6	0	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.