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Game Recap
NSH5
STL2
NSH beat STL 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.20 expected goals to 2.41. F. Forsberg scored three for NSH. J. Saros stopped 20 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| STL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 0:27NSHF. Forsberg0.12 xG
- 1st 10:06STLD. Dvorsky0.09 xG
- 2nd 1:23NSHM. Bunting0.07 xG
- 2nd 5:31NSHF. ForsbergPP0.09 xG
- 2nd 18:45NSHR. Schaefer0.02 xG
- 3rd 8:29STLD. DvorskyPP0.35 xG
- 3rd 16:09NSHF. ForsbergEN0.60 xG
Team Stats
NSHSTL
26Shots on goal22
3.20Expected goals2.41
53Shot attempts42
195v5 shots on goal15
1/4Power play1/3
13Hits22
7Blocked shots11
13Penalty minutes17
12Giveaways10
6Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 3.20 xGSTL 2.41 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Forsberg | LW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:20 | 4:52 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:45 | 4:50 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:19 | 2:29 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:53 | 4:52 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:30 | 2:30 |
| R. Schaefer | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:34 | 4:51 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:03 | 2:31 |
| M. Wood | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:27 | 2:28 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:31 | 0:00 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:41 | 5:29 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 19:44 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:25 | 0:00 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:02 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:23 | 1:53 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 | 17:18 | 0:03 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:07 | 2:50 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:24 | 2:52 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 14:44 | 2:22 |
| H. McGing | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:00 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:36 | 2:23 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 16:24 | 2:53 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 | 1:09 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:27 | 0:00 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 13:41 | 0:01 |
| M. Luff | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:44 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 5 | 12:24 | 1:53 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 22:03 | 1:09 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:33 | 1:19 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 19:45 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:02 | 0:00 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:29 | 2:16 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 6 | 16:26 | 1:54 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 25 | 21 | 4 | .840 | 59:39 | Loss |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NSH
Line 1M. McCarron11:24R. Schaefer11:51T. Jost10:27
Line 2R. O'Reilly11:43L. Evangelista13:24F. Forsberg11:20
Line 3M. Bunting12:47J. Marchessault11:30E. Haula12:42
Line 4S. Stamkos11:01M. Wood11:59F. Svechkov12:23
Pair 3N. Hague15:34N. Blankenburg13:38
STL
Line 1H. McGing13:54D. Dvorsky14:17P. Suter12:19
Line 2M. Luff12:16A. Toropchenko13:03O. Sundqvist11:39
Line 3B. Schenn10:10R. Fabbri13:27J. Neighbours12:01
Line 4P. Buchnevich9:39R. Thomas9:51M. Joseph9:50
Pair 1P. Broberg17:25C. Parayko16:24
Pair 3C. Fowler14:44L. Mailloux14:32
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 2.8, STL 3.1 | NSH 5, STL 2 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 27.1, STL 26.7 | NSH 26, STL 22 |
| Win chance | STL 56% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.0 | 4 | 0.82 | 3 | 33% | 3 |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.5 | 2 | 0.75 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.3 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.2 | 3 | 0.72 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.1 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.0 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.8 | 1 | 0.70 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.8 | 0 | 1.05 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL P. Suter | 1.7 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 1.7 | 3 | 0.49 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.7 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH E. Haula | 1.7 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.6 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.6 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH M. Wood | 1.6 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.6 | 0 | 0.66 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL R. Fabbri | 1.4 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.4 | 3 | 0.28 | 2 | 15% | 2 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.3 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL M. Luff | 1.2 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH T. Jost | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NSH N. Perbix | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH N. Hague | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH R. Schaefer | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| STL H. McGing | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.9 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.9 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.