TBL beat NSH 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.06 expected goals to 2.65. NSH outshot TBL 37 to 27. B. Point led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). L. Evangelista had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 35 of 37.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| TBL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 9:49TBLB. Point0.15 xG
- 1st 19:24TBLM. Chaffee0.23 xG
- 2nd 10:19NSHR. O'ReillyPP0.15 xG
- 2nd 18:40NSHG. Nyquist0.16 xG
- OT 3:22TBLN. Paul0.19 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 2.65 xGTBL 4.06 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:02 | 5:48 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:31 | 4:34 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:21 | 2:01 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:34 | 4:32 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 20:00 | 4:33 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:17 | 0:16 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:53 | 0:00 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:08 | 2:05 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:32 | 0:00 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:13 | 2:02 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:07 | 0:36 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:31 | 0:00 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:22 | 1:55 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 28:22 | 4:47 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:59 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:32 | 0:01 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 63:22 | OT loss |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Point | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:30 | 4:54 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:30 | 4:15 |
| N. Paul | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:33 | 1:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:10 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:58 | 4:15 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:44 | 4:57 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:23 | 0:50 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:44 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:21 | 0:01 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:00 | 0:11 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:37 | 0:14 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 22:54 | 3:29 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 21:24 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:18 | 0:09 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 20:25 | 1:46 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:04 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 37 | 35 | 2 | .946 | 63:22 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 3.3, TBL 3.3 | NSH 2, TBL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 31.2, TBL 28.9 | NSH 37, TBL 27 |
| Win chance | TBL 51% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.9 | 2 | 1.07 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.2 | 3 | 1.48 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 3.1 | 6 | 0.93 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 3.1 | 1 | 0.83 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 3.1 | 4 | 0.95 | 2 | 33% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 3.1 | 6 | 0.96 | 2 | 35% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.6 | 3 | 1.00 | 2 | 38% | 1 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.2 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.1 | 0 | 0.50 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.1 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 2.0 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.8 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 1.8 | 5 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.7 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.6 | 2 | 0.74 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.5 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.4 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.3 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH M. Jankowski | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH A. Carrier | 1.1 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH J. Lauzon | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.0 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.0 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| NSH D. Fabbro | 0.9 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.9 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.8 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.