Game Recap: NSH 3, VAN 4 (SO), March 12, 2026

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Game Recap

NSH3

Final/SOThu, Mar 12, 2026Every game that night

VAN4

VAN beat NSH 4-3 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.92 expected goals to 2.19. VAN outshot NSH 27 to 19. M. Rossi led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). T. Jost had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. N. Tolopilo stopped 16 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
NSH	1	2	0	0	3
VAN	1	0	2	1	4

1st 8:40VANB. Boeser0.08 xG
1st 18:28NSHT. Jost0.11 xG
2nd 5:20NSHT. Jost0.25 xG
2nd 14:06NSHM. Wood0.02 xG
3rd 15:55VANM. Rossi0.23 xG
3rd 18:59VANF. Hronek0.12 xG

Team Stats

NSHVAN

19Shots on goal27

2.19Expected goals4.92

42Shot attempts66

155v5 shots on goal21

0/2Power play0/1

22Hits17

16Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways14

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.19 xGVAN 4.92 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH18 on goal, 3 scored

VAN27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Jost	C	2	0	2	4	1	1	+1	2	13:00	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	14:24	0:00
M. Wood	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	10:48	0:47
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	2	23:14	1:27
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	21:51	1:27
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	21:12	0:47
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	1	3	2	-2	0	20:46	1:27
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	19:00	0:47
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	17:00	1:27
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	+2	0	12:21	0:00
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	8:38	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	7:07	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	28:35	1:27
J. Barron	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	14:33	0:00
R. Ufko	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:55	0:47
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	23:48	0:47
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	22:47	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	20:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	27	24	3	.889	65:00	OT loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rossi	C	1	2	3	1	0	0	+2	4	14:08	0:00
B. Boeser	RW	1	1	2	4	0	0	+2	0	18:26	0:00
L. Ohgren	LW	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	16:47	0:00
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	19:36	0:00
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	19:16	0:00
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	4	2	1	+1	0	18:40	0:14
E. Kane	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:44	0:14
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:58	0:14
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	14:40	0:00
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:25	0:00
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	10:15	0:00
C. Douglas	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	9:53	0:00
F. Hronek	D	1	1	2	1	1	3	+3	0	29:03	0:14
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	24:54	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	23:04	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	18:44	0:13
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:14	0:01
V. Mancini	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	12:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
N. Tolopilo	19	16	3	.842	63:53	Win
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1R. O'Reilly19:18J. Marchessault15:33F. Forsberg17:47

Line 2E. Haula14:12L. Evangelista17:57S. Stamkos16:25

Line 3T. Jost13:00F. Svechkov12:54O. Wiesblatt11:52

Line 4M. Wood9:08Z. L'Heureux8:38R. Schaefer7:07

Pair 1R. Josi21:38B. Skjei19:16

Pair 2N. Hague21:47N. Perbix19:02

VAN

Line 1E. Kane17:30D. O'Connor15:48E. Pettersson16:04

Line 2T. Blueger17:21L. Karlsson14:40M. Sasson14:13

Line 3B. Boeser14:18M. Rossi11:49L. Ohgren14:01

Line 4A. Räty9:04C. Douglas9:53J. DeBrusk8:57

Pair 1M. Pettersson22:57T. Willander19:53

Pair 2F. Hronek22:25E. Pettersson16:16

Pair 3V. Mancini12:20Z. Buium15:46

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKevin Lankinen VAN Faces NSH, his team until May 20240 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 3.3, VAN 3.2	NSH 3, VAN 4
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	NSH 28.9, VAN 27.6	NSH 19, VAN 27
Win chance	NSH 51%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.3	0	0.99	0	36%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.8	1	0.91	1	22%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	1	0.90	0	35%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.4	2	0.74	0	29%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.4	1	0.59	0	26%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.3	2	0.52	0	24%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.2	4	0.71	2	30%	1
NSH L. Evangelista	2.2	1	0.68	0	17%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.1	2	0.94	0	27%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.8	4	0.36	1	16%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.7	4	0.44	0	19%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.7	0	0.49	0	18%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.7	2	0.78	0	26%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.7	1	0.52	0	18%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.6	0	0.47	0	14%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.6	1	0.62	3	22%	1
VAN F. Hronek	1.6	1	0.64	2	11%	1
NSH B. Skjei	1.5	1	0.40	0	11%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.5	2	0.40	1	17%	1
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.3	0	0.27	0	11%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.2	4	0.24	2	9%	2
VAN M. Sasson	1.2	2	0.33	0	17%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.1	0	0.26	0	7%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.1	3	0.31	0	13%	0
VAN T. Willander	1.1	0	0.44	0	10%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.0	2	0.27	0	7%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.0	0	0.37	0	5%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	0.9	0	0.24	1	9%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.9	1	0.26	0	13%	0
VAN Z. Buium	0.9	0	0.34	0	7%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.9	1	0.20	0	6%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.7	1	0.17	1	6%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.7	0	0.18	0	7%	0
VAN C. Douglas	0.7	1	0.11	0	5%	0
VAN V. Mancini	0.6	0	0.17	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.