Game Recap: NSH 0, WPG 3, December 30, 2024

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Game Recap

NSH0

FinalMon, Dec 30, 2024Every game that night

WPG3

WPG beat NSH 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.84 expected goals to 1.74. G. Vilardi led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). G. Vilardi had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. C. Hellebuyck stopped 22 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	0	0	0
WPG	0	1	2	3

2nd 17:18WPGD. DeMelo0.13 xG
3rd 13:44WPGG. VilardiPP0.24 xG
3rd 14:46WPGG. VilardiPP0.43 xG

Team Stats

NSHWPG

22Shots on goal28

1.74Expected goals3.84

60Shot attempts59

205v5 shots on goal21

0/2Power play2/5

28Hits17

15Blocked shots21

8Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways18

2Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 1.74 xGWPG 3.84 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH21 on goal, 0 scored

WPG28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. McCarron	C	1	1	1	0	0	16:16	0:00
F. Forsberg	LW	1	0	1	-1	0	15:28	2:22
G. Nyquist	RW	2	0	0	0	0	15:25	1:25
S. Stamkos	C	1	2	0	-1	0	15:20	2:28
J. Marchessault	RW	1	1	0	-1	0	15:08	2:35
M. Jankowski	LW	1	3	1	0	0	14:57	0:00
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	5	2	0	0	14:33	1:30
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	0	0	14:29	2:19
L. Evangelista	RW	3	0	0	0	0	14:24	1:40
C. Sissons	C	2	2	0	0	2	14:17	0:00
T. Novak	C	0	1	0	0	0	12:38	1:26
V. Hinostroza	C	1	2	0	0	0	11:27	0:00
B. Skjei	D	2	1	3	0	0	21:57	1:43
R. Josi	D	2	0	3	-1	0	21:05	2:17
N. Blankenburg	D	2	1	3	0	0	19:19	0:14
A. Wilsby	D	3	0	0	0	0	18:29	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	5	1	0	0	18:13	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	4	0	-1	6	18:04	0:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	28	25	3	.893	59:52	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Connor	LW	0	2	2	4	0	1	0	0	20:51	5:05
G. Vilardi	C	2	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	18:44	4:53
N. Ehlers	LW	0	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	16:06	4:47
M. Barron	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	9:07	0:00
M. Scheifele	C	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	21:06	5:03
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	18:28	3:34
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	16:34	3:27
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:15	3:34
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	16:15	3:17
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	14:43	0:07
R. Kupari	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	7:47	0:00
D. Gustafsson	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6:58	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	19:33	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	2	18:21	0:09
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	24:32	5:14
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	21:20	3:15
D. Coghlan	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	15:03	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	14:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	22	22	0	1.000	60:00	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNino Niederreiter WPG Faces NSH, his team until Feb 20231 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.8, WPG 3.3	NSH 0, WPG 3
Total goals	6.1	3
Shots on goal	NSH 29.8, WPG 29.6	NSH 22, WPG 28
Win chance	WPG 58%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.2	1	0.83	0	32%	0
WPG K. Connor	3.1	4	1.03	2	36%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	3.0	1	0.73	0	32%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.6	1	0.78	0	32%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.5	2	0.71	0	16%	0
WPG N. Ehlers	2.3	1	0.72	2	24%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	3	0.99	0	34%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.0	5	0.77	2	31%	2
NSH L. Evangelista	2.0	3	0.39	0	15%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.0	2	0.82	0	15%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.9	2	0.39	0	10%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.8	1	0.46	0	21%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.8	2	0.56	0	19%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.7	0	0.58	0	22%	0
WPG D. Coghlan	1.7	1	0.20	0	4%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.6	2	0.52	0	9%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.5	0	0.46	0	17%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.4	0	0.32	0	14%	0
NSH G. Nyquist	1.4	2	0.57	0	18%	0
NSH T. Novak	1.3	0	0.40	0	16%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.3	2	0.24	0	7%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.2	3	0.20	0	5%	0
NSH M. Jankowski	1.2	1	0.29	0	13%	0
NSH V. Hinostroza	1.2	1	0.25	0	10%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	1	0.47	0	16%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.2	2	0.23	0	7%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.1	0	0.32	0	13%	0
NSH L. Schenn	1.1	0	0.12	0	3%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.1	1	0.22	0	11%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.1	1	0.19	1	10%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.1	2	0.24	0	10%	0
NSH J. Lauzon	1.0	0	0.12	0	4%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	1	0.30	1	5%	1
WPG L. Stanley	0.9	0	0.21	1	5%	0
WPG R. Kupari	0.8	1	0.13	0	5%	0
WPG D. Gustafsson	0.8	1	0.15	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.