WPG beat NSH 5-2 despite fewer good chances: 3.02 expected goals to 3.78. R. Josi led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Barron had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. C. Hellebuyck stopped 26 of 28.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 3.78 xGWPG 3.02 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:35 | 8:45 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:08 | 8:35 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:54 | 6:30 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:04 | 1:34 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:39 | 8:36 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 | 2:24 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:40 | 2:31 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:46 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:02 | 2:23 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:30 | 2:00 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 4:02 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28:51 | 8:41 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:06 | 2:20 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:24 | 0:00 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 29 | 26 | 4 | .897 | 59:14 | Loss |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:09 |
| K. Connor | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:21 | 0:09 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:09 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:09 |
| M. Barron | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:32 | 0:00 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:43 | 0:00 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:32 | 0:00 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:00 |
| D. Gustafsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:18 | 0:00 |
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8:31 | 0:00 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 25:27 | 0:00 |
| V. Heinola | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:00 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 24:17 | 0:09 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 4 | 23:26 | 0:00 |
| D. Coghlan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 20:13 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 60:00 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 2.7, WPG 3.2 | NSH 2, WPG 5 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 29.5, WPG 29.6 | NSH 28, WPG 30 |
| Win chance | WPG 58% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.2 | 3 | 1.04 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.1 | 4 | 0.81 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.8 | 5 | 0.70 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.7 | 5 | 0.74 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.7 | 2 | 0.83 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.4 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.2 | 2 | 0.80 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.2 | 3 | 0.99 | 2 | 35% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.1 | 1 | 0.83 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.0 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.0 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.9 | 4 | 0.47 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.9 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WPG D. Coghlan | 1.7 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.7 | 4 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.6 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.4 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH V. Hinostroza | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.3 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.3 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH M. Jankowski | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.0 | 4 | 0.19 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG V. Heinola | 0.9 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG D. Gustafsson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stastney | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.