Game Recap: NSH 1, WPG 4, October 18, 2025

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Game Recap

NSH1

FinalSat, Oct 18, 2025Every game that night

WPG4

WPG beat NSH 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.24 expected goals to 3.12. N. Niederreiter led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Hellebuyck stopped 30 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	0	1	1
WPG	2	0	2	4

1st 2:39WPGM. ScheifelePP0.12 xG
1st 10:25WPGN. Niederreiter0.41 xG
3rd 5:26WPGL. Stanley0.02 xG
3rd 16:52WPGV. NamestnikovPP0.14 xG
3rd 18:56NSHM. Bunting0.17 xG

Team Stats

NSHWPG

31Shots on goal24

3.12Expected goals4.24

78Shot attempts45

225v5 shots on goal20

0/4Power play2/3

19Hits16

7Blocked shots16

11Penalty minutes13

10Giveaways10

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 3.12 xGWPG 4.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH31 on goal, 1 scored

WPG23 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	3	1	2	0	0	18:52	3:22
M. Bunting	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	17:04	3:54
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	21:58	4:13
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	18:22	3:01
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	18:06	4:13
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:34	3:03
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	14:30	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	13:47	0:00
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:08	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	5	11:51	0:00
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	9:55	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	2	20:01	4:04
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	2	24:19	4:18
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	17:38	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	17:32	2:59
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:22	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:56	0:12
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	12:04	3:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	24	20	4	.833	59:30	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Toews	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	15:56	1:59
V. Namestnikov	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	+1	0	13:49	1:33
N. Niederreiter	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+1	0	13:27	1:32
M. Scheifele	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	19:19	4:00
K. Connor	LW	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	18:32	4:03
A. Iafallo	LW	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	17:08	3:32
G. Nyquist	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	12:30	1:26
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:47	3:57
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	12:42	0:00
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	12:03	0:00
P. Ford	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	11:38	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	11:30	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	-1	0	21:09	0:00
L. Stanley	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	+2	5	16:33	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	24:09	4:10
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	21:24	1:23
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:29	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	31	30	1	.968	59:51	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos13:14R. O'Reilly14:45F. Forsberg17:06

Line 2C. Smith11:19O. Wiesblatt9:55M. McCarron9:33

Line 3M. Bunting12:53L. Evangelista15:08E. Haula9:37

Line 4F. Svechkov14:17T. Jost10:05

Pair 1N. Perbix14:50B. Skjei14:30

Pair 2R. Josi17:29A. Wilsby13:19

Pair 3J. Barron12:51S. Stastney12:56

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele14:35G. Vilardi14:41K. Connor12:58

Line 2G. Nyquist11:04N. Niederreiter11:38J. Toews13:07

Line 3T. Pearson11:04A. Iafallo11:41V. Namestnikov9:32

Line 4C. Koepke9:21P. Ford10:07M. Barron9:39

Pair 1D. DeMelo16:48J. Morrissey19:07

Pair 2L. Stanley16:16N. Pionk16:39

Pair 3L. Schenn10:34H. Fleury13:59

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.5, WPG 3.3	NSH 1, WPG 4
Total goals	5.7	5
Shots on goal	NSH 25.4, WPG 28.1	NSH 31, WPG 24
Win chance	WPG 64%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.1	4	1.15	1	37%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.0	3	0.79	0	31%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.6	3	0.75	0	16%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	3	1.03	1	34%	1
NSH S. Stamkos	2.1	3	0.68	0	29%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.0	1	0.80	0	29%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.9	0	0.76	0	16%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.8	2	0.48	2	21%	1
NSH B. Skjei	1.8	1	0.41	1	10%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	1.8	3	0.39	0	14%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.8	2	0.52	0	11%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.8	4	0.44	1	18%	1
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.7	3	0.58	1	22%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.6	1	0.35	0	16%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.5	1	0.56	2	19%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.5	2	0.42	1	17%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.4	1	0.31	0	7%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.3	0	0.22	0	9%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.3	0	0.30	0	12%	0
WPG T. Pearson	1.3	0	0.32	0	12%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	2	0.51	2	16%	1
NSH F. Svechkov	1.2	2	0.25	0	12%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.2	1	0.23	0	4%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	0	0.22	0	11%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.1	1	0.34	1	6%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.1	1	0.45	1	14%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.0	0	0.19	0	8%	0
WPG L. Schenn	1.0	0	0.15	0	4%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.0	1	0.19	0	7%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.0	2	0.21	0	10%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.0	3	0.29	0	6%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.9	0	0.16	0	3%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.8	2	0.23	1	4%	1
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.8	1	0.27	0	8%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.6	1	0.13	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.