Game Recap: NSH 4, WPG 3 (SO), March 17, 2026

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Game Recap

NSH4

Final/SOTue, Mar 17, 2026Every game that night

WPG3

NSH beat WPG 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.26 expected goals to 4.18. WPG outshot NSH 39 to 23. K. Connor led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). G. Vilardi had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Saros stopped 36 of 39.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
NSH	1	1	1	1	4
WPG	1	1	1	0	3

1st 13:02NSHE. HaulaPP0.11 xG
1st 19:20WPGJ. Morrissey0.12 xG
2nd 5:09WPGG. VilardiPP0.46 xG
2nd 10:48NSHF. Forsberg0.04 xG
3rd 14:01NSHM. Wood0.11 xG
3rd 18:59WPGJ. Toews0.20 xG

Team Stats

NSHWPG

23Shots on goal39

2.26Expected goals4.18

51Shot attempts74

185v5 shots on goal24

1/1Power play1/4

21Hits16

17Blocked shots13

8Penalty minutes2

8Giveaways11

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.26 xGWPG 4.18 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH23 on goal, 3 scored

WPG37 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Marchessault	RW	0	2	2	3	1	0	+2	2	18:12	1:24
F. Forsberg	LW	1	1	2	5	1	2	+2	4	17:34	1:48
E. Haula	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	16:41	0:24
M. Wood	RW	1	0	1	3	2	0	+2	0	16:28	0:00
L. Evangelista	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	15:09	0:24
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	0	21:59	1:24
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-2	0	18:15	1:24
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	17:42	0:00
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	13:07	0:00
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:05	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	9:58	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:38	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	-2	0	27:36	1:48
R. Ufko	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	2	11:39	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	25:14	0:24
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	24:42	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	20:18	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	14:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	39	36	3	.923	65:00	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Connor	LW	0	3	3	7	1	0	+2	0	25:17	4:24
G. Vilardi	C	1	1	2	6	1	1	+2	0	21:56	4:24
M. Scheifele	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	+2	0	24:41	4:08
C. Perfetti	C	0	1	1	6	0	1	+1	0	21:05	4:08
J. Toews	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:58	2:02
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	17:10	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:37	0:00
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	14:00	0:00
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	13:33	1:45
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:18	2:01
B. Lambert	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	9:15	1:48
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	-2	0	7:03	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	1	0	1	2	1	3	+1	0	29:05	4:17
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	25:22	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	22:25	0:00
E. Salomonsson	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	21:48	1:53
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	10:06	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	23	20	3	.870	63:09	OT loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos14:19L. Evangelista14:45R. O'Reilly14:07

Line 2J. Marchessault14:35F. Forsberg13:21M. Wood14:21

Line 3E. Haula12:15Z. L'Heureux10:33R. Schaefer9:38

Line 4O. Wiesblatt9:39F. Svechkov9:33T. Jost13:04

Pair 1R. Josi19:23B. Skjei18:34

Pair 2N. Hague20:52J. Barron14:00

Pair 3R. Ufko11:11N. Perbix16:45

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele16:51K. Connor16:04A. Iafallo15:37

Line 2A. Lowry14:33C. Perfetti13:43G. Vilardi15:40

Line 3G. Nyquist11:05I. Rosen10:40J. Toews11:15

Line 4M. Barron11:11B. Lambert7:27C. Koepke6:36

Pair 1D. Samberg22:19E. Salomonsson18:16

Pair 2D. DeMelo21:13J. Morrissey19:58

Pair 3J. Bryson9:23H. Fleury9:04

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.7, WPG 3.3	NSH 4, WPG 3
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	NSH 26.8, WPG 28.1	NSH 23, WPG 39
Win chance	WPG 59%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.4	7	1.29	3	41%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	2.9	5	0.83	2	32%	1
NSH R. Josi	2.9	2	0.84	1	19%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.4	4	1.28	1	39%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.4	6	0.71	1	23%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.3	2	0.77	0	32%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.2	3	0.62	2	26%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.1	1	0.59	1	16%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	2	0.79	0	25%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.9	2	0.83	1	17%	1
WPG G. Vilardi	1.9	6	0.83	2	31%	1
WPG M. Barron	1.6	1	0.37	0	15%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.6	0	0.39	0	10%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.6	2	0.42	1	16%	1
WPG A. Iafallo	1.5	1	0.44	0	18%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.4	3	0.36	1	16%	1
WPG A. Lowry	1.4	0	0.45	0	18%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	1	0.31	0	5%	0
WPG E. Salomonsson	1.3	3	0.23	0	7%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.2	2	0.40	1	14%	1
NSH T. Jost	1.2	0	0.23	0	9%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.2	0	0.24	0	6%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.1	3	0.40	0	13%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.1	1	0.24	0	10%	0
WPG I. Rosen	1.1	0	0.30	0	12%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.1	0	0.21	0	9%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.1	0	0.32	0	6%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.0	1	0.23	0	6%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	0.9	1	0.23	0	8%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.8	0	0.16	0	3%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.7	0	0.20	0	10%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.7	0	0.16	0	5%	0
WPG B. Lambert	0.6	2	0.31	0	11%	0
NSH R. Ufko	0.6	1	0.27	1	5%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.6	0	0.16	0	6%	0
WPG J. Bryson	0.4	0	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.