NYI beat BOS 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.16 expected goals to 3.78. BOS outshot NYI 39 to 20. D. Pastrnak had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 4.5. I. Sorokin stopped 38 of 39.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 1st 16:11NYIA. Romanov0.06 xG
- 2nd 4:21NYIK. Palmieri0.25 xG
- 3rd 10:04BOSD. Pastrnak0.02 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 2.16 xGBOS 3.78 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:28 | 2:13 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:31 | 1:14 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:32 | 1:47 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:53 | 2:11 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:15 | 2:46 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:55 | 1:49 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:13 | 1:45 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:00 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 10:38 | 0:00 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:47 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:12 | 0:00 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:37 | 0:00 |
| A. Romanov | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 24:29 | 0:02 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:42 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:00 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:20 | 1:49 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:54 | 2:11 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:10 | 2:13 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 39 | 38 | 1 | .974 | 59:54 | Win |
| J. Skarek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:55 | 5:23 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:17 | 0:43 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:05 | 4:58 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 22:11 | 5:05 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:37 | 5:07 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:53 | 1:02 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12:17 | 0:00 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:19 | 0:55 |
| R. Tufte | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:08 | 0:00 |
| M. Poitras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 7:08 | 0:28 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:38 | 0:29 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:51 | 5:31 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:26 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:24 | 0:19 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:40 | 0:00 |
| M. Callahan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 20 | 18 | 2 | .900 | 58:12 | Loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 2.7, BOS 2.8 | NYI 2, BOS 1 |
| Total goals | 5.5 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 28.9, BOS 27.6 | NYI 20, BOS 39 |
| Win chance | BOS 52% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 4.5 | 9 | 1.34 | 1 | 46% | 1 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.0 | 4 | 0.71 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.8 | 7 | 0.88 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.8 | 4 | 0.75 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.6 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.5 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.3 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 2.3 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.2 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 2.1 | 5 | 0.66 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.9 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.7 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.7 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.6 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.6 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.6 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.5 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI A. Boqvist | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.3 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.3 | 4 | 0.51 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS M. Poitras | 1.2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 1.1 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS R. Tufte | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.6 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS M. Callahan | 0.6 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.