Game Recap: NYI 2, BOS 5, October 28, 2025

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Game Recap

NYI2

FinalTue, Oct 28, 2025Every game that night

BOS5

BOS beat NYI 5-2, with the chances close: 2.97 expected goals to 3.01. NYI outshot BOS 35 to 22. B. Horvat led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Horvat had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. J. Korpisalo stopped 33 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	2	0	0	2
BOS	0	3	2	5

1st 1:08NYIB. Horvat0.09 xG
1st 4:52NYIK. Palmieri0.22 xG
2nd 3:57BOSE. LindholmPP0.12 xG
2nd 6:49BOSD. Pastrnak0.09 xG
2nd 7:48BOSM. Eyssimont0.09 xG
3rd 5:48BOSM. GeekiePP0.04 xG
3rd 16:37BOSF. MintenEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

NYIBOS

35Shots on goal22

3.01Expected goals2.97

61Shot attempts46

205v5 shots on goal15

0/5Power play2/4

13Hits20

13Blocked shots14

8Penalty minutes10

10Giveaways18

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 3.01 xGBOS 2.97 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI34 on goal, 2 scored

BOS22 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	1	1	2	6	0	0	0	0	21:42	6:27
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	2	19:57	6:30
K. Palmieri	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	18:29	4:23
J. Drouin	LW	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	15:48	5:39
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	2	16:56	3:54
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:17	3:26
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	15:23	4:06
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:03	2:17
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	12:50	2:51
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	11:35	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:24	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:40	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	0	0	5	2	1	0	0	23:39	6:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	2	19:38	0:13
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	18:53	0:03
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	17:44	4:11
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	17:32	0:00
M. Warren	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	12:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	21	17	4	.810	58:58	Loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Lindholm	C	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	17:34	3:50
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	1	2	3	3	0	0	2	16:59	4:41
M. Eyssimont	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	0	11:12	0:55
P. Zacha	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:03	3:50
F. Minten	C	1	0	1	1	4	0	+1	0	15:23	0:00
M. Geekie	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	13:59	3:52
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:26	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	14:58	0:00
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:41	1:46
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	12:23	0:00
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	12:20	1:45
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	12:12	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	2	2	1	1	1	+1	0	24:06	3:51
A. Peeke	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	20:54	0:00
N. Zadorov	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	20:45	0:00
H. Lindholm	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	6	19:03	1:46
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	18:21	1:44
J. Aspirot	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	14:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	35	33	2	.943	60:00	Win
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1A. Lee12:36J. Pageau10:58S. Holmstrom10:51

Line 2K. Palmieri10:46M. Barzal12:25A. Duclair10:35

Line 3J. Drouin10:09B. Horvat10:35E. Heineman9:59

Line 4C. Cizikas10:14M. Tsyplakov11:24K. MacLean9:40

Pair 1A. Pelech17:04R. Pulock16:30

Pair 2S. Mayfield13:42M. Schaefer13:19

Pair 3T. DeAngelo13:07M. Warren12:56

BOS

Line 1E. Lindholm10:44D. Pastrnak12:17M. Khusnutdinov12:12

Line 2T. Jeannot11:33F. Minten11:53M. Geekie10:07

Line 3V. Arvidsson10:09C. Mittelstadt10:54P. Zacha9:21

Line 4S. Kuraly11:26M. Eyssimont9:16M. Kastelic8:39

Pair 1N. Zadorov16:05C. McAvoy14:54

Pair 2H. Lindholm14:13A. Peeke15:21

Pair 3J. Aspirot14:11H. Jokiharju13:35

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 3.2, BOS 2.9	NYI 2, BOS 5
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	NYI 29.6, BOS 27.2	NYI 35, BOS 22
Win chance	NYI 54%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.7	3	1.27	2	42%	1
NYI B. Horvat	3.2	6	0.89	2	34%	1
NYI M. Barzal	2.7	2	0.98	1	25%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.5	5	0.75	1	29%	1
NYI A. Lee	2.3	4	0.56	0	23%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.3	5	0.60	0	9%	0
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.2	3	0.53	0	20%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.1	3	0.81	1	30%	1
BOS E. Lindholm	2.0	1	0.65	2	23%	1
BOS M. Eyssimont	1.9	3	0.28	2	12%	1
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.8	1	0.51	0	10%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.7	1	0.58	2	10%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.6	3	0.48	0	23%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.6	1	0.66	1	19%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.4	0	0.27	0	12%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.4	1	0.30	0	3%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.4	2	0.72	1	17%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.3	2	0.40	0	20%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.3	0	0.32	1	9%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.3	3	0.26	0	12%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	0	0.46	0	15%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.2	1	0.53	0	17%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	0	0.32	0	6%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.2	1	0.32	1	6%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.2	0	0.48	0	19%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.2	1	0.21	1	12%	1
BOS A. Peeke	1.1	1	0.20	1	3%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	1.1	0	0.27	0	13%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.1	1	0.30	0	9%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	1.0	0	0.24	0	4%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.0	1	0.21	0	9%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	1.0	1	0.22	0	4%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	1	0.18	0	8%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.7	0	0.22	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.