Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
NYI4
BUF3
NYI beat BUF 4-3, with the chances close: 4.17 expected goals to 4.04. B. Horvat led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Horvat had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. I. Sorokin stopped 32 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| BUF | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
- 1st 9:03BUFD. CozensPP0.60 xG
- 1st 9:43NYIB. Horvat0.13 xG
- 2nd 5:25NYIM. Tsyplakov0.22 xG
- 2nd 12:20NYIK. PalmieriPP0.17 xG
- 3rd 5:27BUFJ. Zucker0.08 xG
- 3rd 8:08NYIJ. Pageau0.27 xG
- 3rd 18:59BUFO. Power0.31 xG
Team Stats
NYIBUF
36Shots on goal35
4.17Expected goals4.04
55Shot attempts72
225v5 shots on goal24
1/4Power play1/4
18Hits18
23Blocked shots9
15Penalty minutes15
12Giveaways9
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 4.17 xGBUF 4.04 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Horvat | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:54 | 4:20 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:14 | 4:22 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 15:01 | 2:38 |
| J. Pageau | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | +2 | 2 | 21:28 | 4:17 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:06 | 2:38 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:53 | 2:35 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:24 | 2:33 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:03 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:56 | 0:05 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:31 | 0:00 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10:18 | 4:16 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:41 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25:21 | 1:40 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 24:55 | 4:35 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:52 | 0:07 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21:27 | 0:00 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10:41 | 0:03 |
| M. Reilly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:24 | 0:48 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 35 | 32 | 3 | .914 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Varlamov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Zucker | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13:54 | 2:27 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:50 | 3:10 |
| D. Cozens | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:14 | 3:08 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:00 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:38 | 1:46 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 22:41 | 3:14 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:42 | 2:18 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:00 | 1:45 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 6:44 | 0:00 |
| N. Aube-Kubel | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6:09 | 0:11 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:31 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 21:49 | 1:41 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:59 | 3:09 |
| O. Power | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:19 | 1:46 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Levi | 36 | 32 | 4 | .889 | 56:06 | Loss |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 3.1, BUF 3.2 | NYI 4, BUF 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 29.7, BUF 31.2 | NYI 36, BUF 35 |
| Win chance | BUF 51% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.4 | 1 | 0.95 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.9 | 8 | 0.75 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.9 | 4 | 0.69 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.8 | 3 | 0.83 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.7 | 3 | 0.68 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.7 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.7 | 2 | 0.88 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.5 | 5 | 0.67 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.5 | 5 | 0.49 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.3 | 2 | 0.55 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.70 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI M. Reilly | 1.8 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.8 | 4 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.8 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.5 | 2 | 0.46 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.4 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.4 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.4 | 3 | 0.42 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.4 | 6 | 0.41 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI O. Wahlstrom | 1.3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 3 | 0.44 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 1.2 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF N. Aube-Kubel | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.