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Game Recap
NYI2
BUF3
BUF beat NYI 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.92 expected goals to 3.61. M. Barzal led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). E. Heineman had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. A. Lyon stopped 32 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| BUF | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 1:47BUFR. DahlinPP0.13 xG
- 2nd 8:55BUFT. Thompson0.14 xG
- 2nd 19:37NYIM. Barzal0.23 xG
- 3rd 19:31NYIE. HeinemanPP0.12 xG
Team Stats
NYIBUF
34Shots on goal32
3.61Expected goals3.92
65Shot attempts55
265v5 shots on goal23
1/3Power play1/4
25Hits18
8Blocked shots11
8Penalty minutes6
20Giveaways17
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 3.61 xGBUF 3.92 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Barzal | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 23:33 | 2:02 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:04 | 2:28 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:49 | 1:43 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:49 | 1:06 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:16 | 2:03 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:08 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:34 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:00 |
| C. Ritchie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:57 | 1:44 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:08 | 1:12 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:14 | 0:00 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:48 | 1:03 |
| M. Schaefer | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:36 | 2:00 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 26:25 | 0:12 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:55 | 1:15 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:18 | 0:00 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:48 | 0:00 |
| M. Warren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Rittich | 32 | 30 | 2 | .938 | 62:39 | OT loss |
| I. Sorokin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:48 | 5:21 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:09 | 5:26 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:06 | 0:54 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:39 | 5:06 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:25 | 5:06 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:06 | 1:10 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:24 | 1:03 |
| N. Ostlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Dunne | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:55 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 25:52 | 5:45 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:12 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:49 | 1:14 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 17:28 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:35 |
| Z. Metsa | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lyon | 34 | 32 | 2 | .941 | 64:55 | Win |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NYI
Line 1A. Lee16:03M. Barzal16:34S. Holmstrom13:02
Line 2E. Heineman14:06J. Drouin11:37J. Pageau11:25
Line 3C. Cizikas11:17K. MacLean11:40M. Gatcomb11:14
Line 4C. Ritchie10:03M. Tsyplakov10:56A. Duclair9:45
Pair 1A. Pelech21:19T. DeAngelo20:23
Pair 2M. Schaefer16:25R. Pulock15:49
Pair 3S. Mayfield14:46M. Warren9:46
BUF
Line 1T. Thompson14:54J. Doan13:42P. Krebs13:08
Line 2A. Tuch14:24N. Ostlund12:48J. Norris11:29
Line 4J. Dunne10:20J. Greenway9:06B. Malenstyn8:55
Pair 1M. Samuelsson19:07R. Dahlin16:58
Pair 3M. Kesselring14:44O. Power14:46
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 2.8, BUF 3.2 | NYI 2, BUF 3 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 27.4, BUF 29.1 | NYI 34, BUF 32 |
| Win chance | BUF 56% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.6 | 4 | 1.01 | 1 | 42% | 1 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.7 | 4 | 0.94 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.7 | 5 | 0.84 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| BUF J. Doan | 2.7 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 2.6 | 3 | 0.64 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.5 | 5 | 0.85 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.4 | 0 | 0.54 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF J. Norris | 1.9 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.9 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI E. Heineman | 1.8 | 10 | 0.48 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.8 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 1.6 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.5 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI J. Drouin | 1.5 | 0 | 0.69 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.5 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.5 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.4 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF M. Kesselring | 1.4 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.2 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.2 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF N. Ostlund | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF J. Dunne | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.