Game Recap: NYI 3, BUF 4, March 31, 2026

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Game Recap

NYI3

FinalTue, Mar 31, 2026Every game that night

BUF4

BUF beat NYI 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.39 expected goals to 2.36. B. Horvat led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). J. Quinn had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. U. Luukkonen stopped 25 of 28.

Team Stats

NYIBUF

28Shots on goal33

2.36Expected goals3.39

49Shot attempts62

155v5 shots on goal25

1/3Power play2/4

26Hits25

10Blocked shots15

15Penalty minutes13

12Giveaways19

6Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 2.36 xGBUF 3.39 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI25 on goal, 3 scored

BUF32 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	0	3	3	3	1	0	0	0	21:22	2:43
B. Schenn	C	1	1	2	1	3	0	0	0	18:54	2:49
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	20:24	2:50
C. Ritchie	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:33	2:49
A. Lee	LW	1	0	1	2	4	0	+1	5	14:10	0:16
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	15:21	0:12
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:19	0:13
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	13:17	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	12:18	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	11:42	0:00
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:29	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	11:07	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0	29:40	2:39
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	2	21:17	0:27
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	4	19:22	0:05
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	19:17	0:00
A. Boqvist	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	13:02	0:27
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	12:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	32	29	3	.906	57:52	Loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	0	0	21:31	3:31
J. Quinn	RW	1	1	2	7	3	0	-1	0	16:11	3:31
J. Norris	C	0	2	2	1	2	0	+1	6	15:04	3:31
A. Tuch	RW	0	1	1	0	3	2	0	0	20:25	0:52
P. Krebs	C	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	17:37	0:00
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	18:38	0:52
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	15:32	3:31
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	13:17	0:52
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	+1	0	13:02	0:52
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	11:20	0:00
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:13	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	5	6:47	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	1	1	1	3	2	0	2	22:44	0:00
B. Byram	D	1	0	1	2	1	3	0	0	22:14	0:52
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	23:14	3:31
O. Power	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	19:16	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	14:04	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	13:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	28	25	3	.893	59:41	Win
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1B. Schenn13:21M. Barzal14:28A. Duclair11:20

Line 2B. Horvat13:30E. Heineman12:33A. Lee11:46

Line 3O. Palat11:32C. Ritchie11:27J. Pageau11:38

Line 4K. MacLean12:18M. Gatcomb11:07C. Cizikas12:00

Pair 1R. Pulock16:35M. Schaefer23:01

Pair 2C. Soucy17:45A. Pelech18:02

Pair 3S. Mayfield10:21A. Boqvist11:46

BUF

Line 1A. Tuch16:15T. Thompson16:28P. Krebs16:07

Line 2R. McLeod14:48J. Quinn12:40J. Zucker12:01

Line 3Z. Benson11:59J. Doan11:53J. Norris11:03

Line 4J. Greenway8:55B. Malenstyn8:46S. Carrick6:00

Pair 1B. Byram18:51O. Power16:29

Pair 2M. Samuelsson18:58R. Dahlin17:12

Pair 3L. Stanley12:46Z. Metsa13:19

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.8, BUF 3.4	NYI 3, BUF 4
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	NYI 27.5, BUF 29.0	NYI 28, BUF 33
Win chance	BUF 60%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.6	3	1.07	2	43%	1
NYI B. Horvat	3.2	3	0.71	3	32%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.7	4	0.67	1	19%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.6	0	0.83	1	33%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.6	3	0.94	0	18%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.5	2	0.51	1	24%	1
BUF J. Quinn	2.3	7	0.66	2	22%	1
NYI M. Barzal	2.2	3	0.75	1	21%	0
NYI E. Heineman	2.2	1	0.39	0	22%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.1	2	0.67	0	26%	0
BUF J. Doan	1.9	1	0.52	0	22%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.7	1	0.65	2	29%	0
NYI B. Schenn	1.6	1	0.53	2	20%	1
BUF O. Power	1.5	1	0.42	0	8%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.5	4	0.46	0	15%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.5	2	0.25	0	4%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.3	1	0.42	1	8%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.3	2	0.48	1	10%	1
NYI C. Ritchie	1.3	1	0.45	1	17%	1
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	2	0.28	0	5%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	2	0.61	0	18%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	1	0.43	0	16%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.2	1	0.42	1	12%	1
NYI A. Duclair	1.1	0	0.35	0	17%	0
BUF L. Stanley	1.1	1	0.26	0	5%	0
BUF S. Carrick	1.1	1	0.23	0	11%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	1	0.21	0	10%	0
NYI O. Palat	1.0	2	0.23	0	11%	0
NYI C. Soucy	1.0	0	0.18	0	6%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.0	2	0.17	0	10%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.0	2	0.19	0	8%	0
BUF J. Greenway	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
NYI A. Boqvist	0.9	3	0.23	0	6%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	0	0.15	0	7%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	0	0.14	0	3%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.8	1	0.21	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.