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Game Recap
NYI0
CAR4
CAR beat NYI 4-0, with the chances close: 2.71 expected goals to 2.38. S. Aho led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Lee had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. P. Kochetkov stopped 32 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CAR | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 5:47CARA. SvechnikovPP0.22 xG
- 1st 8:21CARJ. Martinook0.29 xG
- 2nd 11:13CART. Jost0.18 xG
- 2nd 19:44CARS. Aho0.14 xG
Team Stats
NYICAR
32Shots on goal29
2.38Expected goals2.71
60Shot attempts64
285v5 shots on goal27
0/1Power play1/2
18Hits13
16Blocked shots15
6Penalty minutes4
17Giveaways15
10Takeaways12
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 2.38 xGCAR 2.71 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Barzal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:57 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:40 | 0:55 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:39 | 1:03 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:34 | 1:05 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:49 | 0:58 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:48 | 0:50 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:54 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:49 | 1:02 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 11:56 | 0:00 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:41 | 0:00 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:53 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:48 | 0:57 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 20:58 | 0:16 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 19:49 | 1:03 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:57 | 0:00 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:31 | 0:00 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 23 | 19 | 4 | .826 | 40:00 | Loss |
| M. Hogberg | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1.000 | 20:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:50 | 2:04 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:30 | 2:05 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:32 | 0:29 |
| T. Jost | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:30 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:20 | 1:59 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:12 | 2:06 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:31 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 11:54 | 0:36 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:35 | 2:06 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:04 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:57 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:31 | 0:29 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 32 | 32 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Tokarski | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 2.5, CAR 3.3 | NYI 0, CAR 4 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 24.7, CAR 33.6 | NYI 32, CAR 29 |
| Win chance | CAR 63% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR M. Necas | 2.8 | 0 | 0.93 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.7 | 1 | 0.84 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.6 | 3 | 1.03 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.4 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.4 | 4 | 0.66 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.4 | 4 | 0.80 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.3 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.3 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.2 | 6 | 0.55 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.2 | 4 | 0.50 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.9 | 1 | 0.69 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.7 | 5 | 0.47 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.7 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.6 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.6 | 4 | 0.40 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.5 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.4 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 4 | 0.33 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.0 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 1.0 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| NYI D. Cholowski | 0.8 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.7 | 4 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 14 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.