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Game Recap
NYI4
CAR6
CAR beat NYI 6-4, with the chances close: 3.26 expected goals to 2.93. S. Aho led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Lee had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. P. Kochetkov stopped 27 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| CAR | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 4:41CARM. Jankowski0.17 xG
- 1st 4:54CARL. Stankoven0.06 xG
- 1st 6:10NYIP. Engvall0.08 xG
- 1st 11:27NYIK. PalmieriPP0.60 xG
- 2nd 1:37NYIP. Engvall0.05 xG
- 2nd 8:35CARS. AhoPP0.07 xG
- 2nd 17:29CARS. JarvisSH0.03 xG
- 3rd 4:05NYIA. Lee0.14 xG
- 3rd 9:19CARD. Orlov0.07 xG
- 3rd 17:14CARS. Jarvis0.27 xG
Team Stats
NYICAR
31Shots on goal30
2.93Expected goals3.26
54Shot attempts56
175v5 shots on goal21
1/5Power play1/4
23Hits8
9Blocked shots11
8Penalty minutes8
15Giveaways20
9Takeaways12
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 2.93 xGCAR 3.26 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Palmieri | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:40 | 6:23 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:06 | 5:38 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:00 |
| A. Lee | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:22 | 6:27 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:32 | 3:50 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 1:21 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:59 | 1:43 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:58 | 0:00 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:30 | 0:04 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:10 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:18 | 0:15 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8:41 | 0:15 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:57 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 20:22 | 6:35 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:07 | 6:39 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:50 | 1:41 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:00 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:53 | 1:51 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Hogberg | 30 | 24 | 6 | .800 | 58:09 | Loss |
| I. Sorokin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:29 | 5:06 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:33 | 5:25 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 7:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:31 | 0:00 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:19 | 5:05 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:00 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:49 | 1:53 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13:31 | 1:54 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:05 | 5:07 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:15 | 1:34 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 1:10 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:41 | 0:08 |
| D. Orlov | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 5:15 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:33 | 1:44 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19:02 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:34 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 31 | 27 | 4 | .871 | 60:00 | Win |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 2.6, CAR 3.6 | NYI 4, CAR 6 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 25.4, CAR 33.6 | NYI 31, CAR 30 |
| Win chance | CAR 66% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.6 | 1 | 0.61 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.6 | 4 | 1.00 | 3 | 36% | 1 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.5 | 6 | 0.84 | 2 | 31% | 2 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.2 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.2 | 10 | 0.47 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.2 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.1 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.1 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 2.1 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.0 | 3 | 0.54 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 1.8 | 4 | 0.44 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.8 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.6 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.6 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.3 | 2 | 0.26 | 2 | 12% | 2 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.3 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI A. Boqvist | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.