Game Recap: NYI 3, CAR 4, April 4, 2026

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Game Recap

NYI3

FinalSat, Apr 4, 2026Every game that night

CAR4

CAR beat NYI 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.35 expected goals to 2.06. CAR outshot NYI 40 to 16. S. Jarvis led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Aho had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. B. Bussi stopped 13 of 16.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	1	1	1	3
CAR	1	2	1	4

1st 5:17NYIM. Gatcomb0.13 xG
1st 11:07CARS. Jarvis0.11 xG
2nd 2:15NYIM. Shabanov0.05 xG
2nd 11:15CARJ. Blake0.15 xG
2nd 16:17CARS. AhoSH0.16 xG
3rd 0:24CARS. Jarvis0.03 xG
3rd 18:23NYIA. Lee0.08 xG

Team Stats

NYICAR

16Shots on goal40

2.06Expected goals4.35

31Shot attempts82

95v5 shots on goal33

0/1Power play0/3

23Hits21

19Blocked shots7

8Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways6

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 2.06 xGCAR 4.35 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI15 on goal, 3 scored

CAR40 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Ritchie	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	17:13	1:14
A. Lee	LW	1	0	1	4	1	1	+1	0	16:46	0:46
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	-2	0	16:30	1:14
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	15:58	0:46
J. Pageau	C	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	15:48	0:46
M. Shabanov	RW	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	13:35	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	1	0	1	2	3	0	+1	2	10:31	0:00
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	20:43	1:14
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	17:11	1:14
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	14:28	0:00
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:50	0:42
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	9:46	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	-1	0	27:11	1:14
S. Mayfield	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	2	16:12	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	2	22:22	0:04
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	2	19:36	0:46
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	19:21	0:00
I. George	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	10:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	40	36	4	.900	56:38	Loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Jarvis	C	2	1	3	6	0	0	+3	2	17:26	3:18
S. Aho	C	1	0	1	7	0	0	+3	0	18:48	3:15
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+2	0	16:55	3:18
L. Stankoven	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	16:45	2:45
J. Blake	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	16:29	2:42
T. Hall	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	16:04	2:42
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	19:41	4:58
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	15:33	0:46
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:08	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	11:04	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	10:08	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	9:58	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	2	2	1	1	1	+1	0	19:35	0:16
J. Slavin	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	20:54	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	1	1	0	3	0	+2	0	18:51	0:09
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	-1	0	20:13	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	17:58	3:25
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	16:43	2:26

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	16	13	3	.813	59:47	Win
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1B. Schenn13:12M. Shabanov13:01C. Ritchie13:33

Line 2A. Lee12:59E. Heineman12:21B. Horvat13:02

Line 3M. Barzal12:28S. Holmstrom12:03J. Pageau11:31

Line 4C. Cizikas11:05M. Gatcomb10:31O. Palat9:12

Pair 1M. Schaefer22:05R. Pulock15:45

Pair 2A. Pelech19:49C. Soucy15:30

Pair 3S. Mayfield13:37I. George10:21

CAR

Line 1L. Stankoven14:00J. Blake13:47T. Hall13:22

Line 2S. Aho12:59A. Svechnikov12:36S. Jarvis11:51

Line 3J. Staal12:19J. Martinook12:36N. Ehlers12:16

Line 4M. Jankowski9:05E. Robinson9:22W. Carrier11:04

Pair 1S. Walker17:29K. Miller18:05

Pair 2J. Slavin16:33J. Chatfield15:51

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere14:33A. Nikishin14:17

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.5, CAR 3.6	NYI 3, CAR 4
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	NYI 22.9, CAR 32.9	NYI 16, CAR 40
Win chance	CAR 67%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	2.8	1	0.73	0	30%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.8	6	0.82	3	30%	2
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	3	0.83	0	28%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.3	7	0.93	1	31%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.3	2	0.76	1	28%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.2	1	0.64	1	17%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.1	1	0.50	1	20%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.1	0	0.31	1	8%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.1	4	0.50	1	22%	1
CAR J. Blake	2.1	3	0.56	1	23%	1
NYI M. Barzal	2.0	2	0.81	1	21%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.9	1	0.58	1	21%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.8	0	0.36	0	20%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.7	3	0.65	0	11%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.6	2	0.32	1	7%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	1	0.47	0	19%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.5	1	0.44	2	8%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.5	2	0.40	0	16%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.4	2	0.38	0	10%	0
NYI B. Schenn	1.4	0	0.53	0	19%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	4	0.27	0	7%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.2	0	0.49	1	20%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.1	1	0.21	0	3%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.1	1	0.45	1	17%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.1	1	0.27	0	13%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.1	1	0.44	1	15%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.1	1	0.20	0	11%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.0	0	0.25	0	4%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.0	0	0.28	0	14%	0
NYI M. Shabanov	0.9	1	0.26	1	8%	1
NYI C. Cizikas	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	0.9	2	0.17	1	10%	1
NYI O. Palat	0.8	1	0.22	0	10%	0
NYI C. Soucy	0.7	0	0.15	0	5%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.6	0	0.12	1	3%	0
NYI I. George	0.5	1	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.