Game Recap: NYI 2, CBJ 4, December 28, 2025

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Game Recap

NYI2

FinalSun, Dec 28, 2025Every game that night

CBJ4

CBJ beat NYI 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.25 expected goals to 2.06. CBJ outshot NYI 35 to 26. K. Marchenko led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Fantilli had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. J. Greaves stopped 24 of 26.

Team Stats

NYICBJ

26Shots on goal35

2.06Expected goals4.25

55Shot attempts77

225v5 shots on goal27

0/2Power play0/4

15Hits25

20Blocked shots17

21Penalty minutes8

12Giveaways20

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 2.06 xGCBJ 4.25 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI25 on goal, 2 scored

CBJ34 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	-1	0	21:25	3:09
J. Pageau	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	15:19	0:29
M. Shabanov	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:27	1:47
A. Duclair	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	11:12	0:54
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	2	5	0	-1	0	19:17	2:39
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:43	1:21
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	17:35	3:12
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	16:15	0:50
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	13:32	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	9:19	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	8:20	0:00
M. Barzal	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	17	8:04	1:28
R. Pulock	D	0	1	1	1	0	8	+1	0	24:03	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	0	0	5	1	3	+1	0	25:00	3:17
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-3	2	21:16	0:11
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:51	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	5	0	1	-2	0	17:25	0:43
M. Warren	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	34	31	3	.912	59:34	Loss
M. Hogberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Marchenko	RW	2	0	2	5	1	0	+2	0	21:18	5:06
S. Monahan	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	17:14	4:12
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	8	0	3	+2	0	22:35	5:52
M. Marchment	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+3	6	19:01	1:52
C. Sillinger	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	8:11	0:00
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	18:58	2:42
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	15:13	0:52
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	5	2	1	0	0	14:20	3:58
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	2	6	2	0	0	13:53	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	11:54	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	7:41	0:00
B. Gaunce	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	7:17	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	2	2	2	1	2	+2	0	26:28	5:36
I. Provorov	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	+2	0	26:56	1:02
D. Severson	D	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	22:02	1:24
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	18:20	0:00
B. Smith	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:15	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	26	24	2	.923	60:00	Win
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1E. Heineman14:58B. Horvat13:39M. Shabanov12:40

Line 2A. Lee14:59S. Holmstrom14:01J. Drouin13:01

Line 3J. Pageau11:02A. Duclair10:18C. Cizikas10:47

Line 4K. MacLean9:19M. Gatcomb8:20

Pair 1M. Schaefer19:19R. Pulock16:41

Pair 2A. Pelech16:02T. DeAngelo15:38

Pair 3S. Mayfield14:11M. Warren11:23

CBJ

Line 1M. Marchment16:43A. Fantilli15:37K. Marchenko14:56

Line 2B. Jenner13:27M. Olivier12:49C. Coyle13:55

Line 3S. Monahan10:21D. Voronkov10:22K. Johnson7:31

Line 4B. Gaunce6:11C. Sillinger7:14M. Wood10:24

Pair 1D. Mateychuk17:41D. Severson19:54

Pair 2I. Provorov21:27D. Fabbro15:15

Pair 3B. Smith10:39J. Christiansen8:24

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.9, CBJ 3.1	NYI 2, CBJ 4
Total goals	6.0	6
Shots on goal	NYI 28.6, CBJ 30.4	NYI 26, CBJ 35
Win chance	CBJ 55%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.1	2	0.77	1	32%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.9	8	0.76	1	32%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.8	2	0.92	0	25%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.7	5	0.73	2	29%	2
NYI M. Schaefer	2.6	5	0.60	0	17%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.6	1	0.58	0	25%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.4	2	0.56	0	25%	0
CBJ M. Marchment	2.1	0	0.58	1	24%	0
NYI E. Heineman	2.1	2	0.47	0	24%	0
CBJ M. Wood	2.0	1	0.36	0	17%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.0	5	0.57	0	25%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.8	5	0.44	0	10%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.8	2	0.61	2	20%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.8	2	0.38	1	13%	1
CBJ I. Provorov	1.7	2	0.42	1	9%	1
NYI A. Pelech	1.7	2	0.29	0	5%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.5	0	0.55	0	20%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.5	0	0.62	0	16%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.5	0	0.45	1	20%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.4	1	0.35	1	7%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.3	2	0.42	2	12%	0
NYI M. Shabanov	1.3	1	0.37	1	13%	1
CBJ K. Johnson	1.3	1	0.41	0	15%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.3	0	0.51	0	21%	0
CBJ B. Gaunce	1.3	0	0.24	0	12%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.2	2	0.35	1	8%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.2	2	0.32	0	14%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.2	1	0.23	0	14%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	1	0.42	1	14%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	0	0.26	0	10%	0
NYI M. Warren	1.0	1	0.23	0	3%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.0	1	0.21	0	5%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	1.0	1	0.17	0	5%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.9	1	0.19	0	9%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.7	0	0.10	0	2%	0
CBJ B. Smith	0.7	0	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.