Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
NYI1
CGY2
CGY beat NYI 2-1 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.45 expected goals to 2.64. D. Wolf stopped 28 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| CGY | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 1:32NYIP. Engvall0.13 xG
- 3rd 8:17CGYR. AnderssonPP0.06 xG
Team Stats
NYICGY
29Shots on goal31
2.64Expected goals2.45
51Shot attempts67
275v5 shots on goal22
0/3Power play1/1
24Hits18
24Blocked shots11
2Penalty minutes6
9Giveaways17
1Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 2.64 xGCGY 2.45 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Engvall | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:11 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:17 | 3:08 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:59 | 2:05 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:31 | 1:51 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:02 | 2:49 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:05 | 2:51 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:03 | 1:49 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:19 | 1:43 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 15:15 | 0:22 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:02 | 2:06 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Martin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:00 | 0:00 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 17:02 | 0:00 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 14:04 | 2:10 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 24:56 | 2:55 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:17 | 0:26 |
| I. George | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:16 | 0:02 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:04 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Varlamov | 31 | 30 | 1 | .968 | 64:47 | OT loss |
| I. Sorokin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:23 | 0:48 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:47 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:02 | 0:49 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:55 | 1:03 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:24 | 0:58 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:10 | 0:56 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:23 | 0:57 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:02 | 0:00 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:42 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:55 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:56 | 0:00 |
| J. Kirkland | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:53 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 27:14 | 0:50 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:33 | 0:55 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:20 | 0:00 |
| D. Miromanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:10 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 3.0, CGY 3.1 | NYI 1, CGY 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 29.1, CGY 32.4 | NYI 29, CGY 31 |
| Win chance | CGY 51% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.3 | 2 | 0.83 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.8 | 3 | 0.77 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.7 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.7 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.6 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.6 | 4 | 0.57 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.5 | 5 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.4 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.3 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.1 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.8 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.8 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.7 | 3 | 0.39 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.6 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY D. Miromanov | 1.6 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.6 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.6 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.5 | 4 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI O. Wahlstrom | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.2 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 1.0 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.8 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI I. George | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY J. Kirkland | 0.7 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI M. Martin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI D. Cholowski | 0.6 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.