CHI beat NYI 5-3, with the chances close: 2.66 expected goals to 2.95. NYI outshot CHI 33 to 23. T. Teravainen led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. Dobson had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. A. Soderblom stopped 30 of 33.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 2.95 xGCHI 2.66 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:21 | 3:36 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:26 | 4:03 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:12 | 2:13 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:07 | 0:00 |
| M. Barzal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:45 | 4:19 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:48 | 3:33 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:44 | 3:37 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:21 | 3:15 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| M. Martin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:58 | 0:00 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:16 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:26 | 3:11 |
| R. Pulock | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:56 | 1:47 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:49 | 0:00 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:47 | 0:03 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 17:34 | 4:38 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:45 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 22 | 18 | 4 | .818 | 59:17 | Loss |
| M. Hogberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Teravainen | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:59 |
| C. Bedard | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:52 | 1:55 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:43 | 1:08 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:00 |
| T. Hall | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 11:21 | 1:04 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:39 | 0:00 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:00 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:32 | 1:52 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:44 | 0:54 |
| P. Maroon | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:16 | 0:08 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:10 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 23:56 | 1:18 |
| C. Murphy | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:44 | 0:10 |
| N. Allan | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:21 | 0:00 |
| K. Korchinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:38 | 0:47 |
| L. Crevier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 | 0:00 |
| T. Brodie | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Soderblom | 33 | 30 | 3 | .909 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Commesso | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 3.2, CHI 2.4 | NYI 3, CHI 5 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 29.1, CHI 26.6 | NYI 33, CHI 23 |
| Win chance | NYI 62% | CHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Nelson | 3.0 | 1 | 0.94 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.9 | 2 | 1.01 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.7 | 2 | 0.81 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.7 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.5 | 2 | 0.78 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.3 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.2 | 8 | 0.69 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| CHI T. Hall | 2.0 | 4 | 0.55 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.9 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.7 | 1 | 0.54 | 3 | 20% | 1 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.7 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.6 | 0 | 0.58 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.5 | 4 | 0.34 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.4 | 2 | 0.34 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.4 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.2 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI K. Korchinski | 1.2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI P. Kurashev | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.2 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| CHI J. Anderson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI D. Cholowski | 1.0 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI P. Maroon | 0.8 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI L. Crevier | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.8 | 4 | 0.24 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 0.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI M. Martin | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI T. Brodie | 0.6 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI N. Allan | 0.5 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.