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Game Recap
NYI3
Final/SOTue, Dec 30, 2025Every game that night
CHI2

NYI beat CHI 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.00 expected goals to 2.36. O. Moore led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). N. Lardis had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. D. Rittich stopped 17 of 19.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdSOT
NYI20013
CHI02002
  1. 1st 2:56NYIC. Ritchie0.19 xG
  2. 1st 12:08NYIB. HorvatPP0.10 xG
  3. 2nd 15:31CHIT. Teravainen0.14 xG
  4. 2nd 19:57CHIN. LardisPP0.14 xG

Team Stats

NYICHI
21Shots on goal19
2.00Expected goals2.36
51Shot attempts54
185v5 shots on goal15
1/3Power play1/2
28Hits23
9Blocked shots16
6Penalty minutes8
24Giveaways11
6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 2.00 xGCHI 2.36 xGGoal

00.511.522.51st2nd3rdOTNYI goal, 2:56NYI goal, 12:08CHI goal, 15:31CHI goal, 19:57

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI21 on goal, 2 scored
CHI19 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. BarzalC0110000223:173:51
B. HorvatC1013300423:023:55
S. HolmstromRW0112110016:050:25
M. ShabanovRW011011+1013:530:16
C. RitchieC1012000011:450:16
E. HeinemanLW0001600023:483:42
J. DrouinLW0001100017:172:49
J. PageauC0000200016:050:00
A. LeeLW0004110013:080:47
C. CizikasC0000100010:480:00
M. GatcombC0002600010:060:00
A. DuclairLW000100-109:500:00
M. SchaeferD0111100026:543:57
R. PulockD0001210024:300:00
T. DeAngeloD000110+1022:230:52
A. PelechD000214+1022:220:10
S. MayfieldD000000-1017:020:00
M. WarrenD000011-109:540:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Rittich19172.89564:54Win
M. Hogberg000–0:00

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
O. MooreC022110+1015:210:44
R. GreeneC0112020018:381:21
T. TeravainenC101200+1017:461:45
N. LardisLW101520+1015:121:23
I. MikheyevRW0000100220:070:00
R. DonatoC0000210018:591:50
N. FolignoLW000222-1218:311:21
T. BertuzziLW0001010017:021:47
A. BurakovskyLW0001100215:071:47
C. DachC000070-1012:490:34
L. SlaggertLW000130-1011:040:00
J. DickinsonC000001005:280:00
A. LevshunovD0110210222:431:55
A. VlasicD0000030022:370:00
W. KaiserD0000100021:150:00
C. MurphyD0000020020:200:00
L. CrevierD0002120019:360:00
M. GrzelcykD0002010018:001:13
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Knight21192.90565:00OT loss
A. Soderblom000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1M. Barzal18:02E. Heineman17:53B. Horvat16:46
Line 2J. Pageau13:30J. Drouin12:34A. Lee12:10
Line 3M. Shabanov12:23S. Holmstrom12:11C. Ritchie11:29
Line 4A. Duclair9:50M. Gatcomb10:06C. Cizikas9:43
Pair 1M. Schaefer20:01R. Pulock20:58
Pair 2A. Pelech18:57T. DeAngelo19:04
Pair 3S. Mayfield15:54M. Warren9:54

CHI

Line 1R. Donato17:09I. Mikheyev17:07N. Foligno16:23
Line 2N. Lardis11:51O. Moore11:39T. Teravainen12:51
Line 3R. Greene14:07A. Burakovsky11:33T. Bertuzzi15:15
Line 4L. Slaggert11:04C. Dach12:15
Pair 1W. Kaiser18:23A. Levshunov18:12
Pair 2A. Vlasic18:02L. Crevier17:00
Pair 3C. Murphy16:59M. Grzelcyk16:07

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNYI 3.0, CHI 2.7NYI 3, CHI 2
Total goals5.75
Shots on goalNYI 29.0, CHI 26.2NYI 21, CHI 19
Win chanceNYI 55%NYI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NYI B. Horvat3.230.84135%1
NYI M. Schaefer2.710.65117%0
NYI A. Lee2.540.61026%0
NYI M. Barzal2.500.86124%0
CHI T. Bertuzzi2.110.70030%0
NYI E. Heineman2.110.52025%0
CHI R. Donato2.100.58024%0
CHI I. Mikheyev1.900.41021%0
NYI T. DeAngelo1.910.47010%0
CHI A. Burakovsky1.710.66021%0
NYI A. Pelech1.720.3105%0
CHI A. Levshunov1.500.4814%0
NYI J. Drouin1.510.67017%0
NYI R. Pulock1.410.4007%0
CHI T. Teravainen1.420.62121%1
CHI N. Lardis1.450.29115%1
CHI R. Greene1.420.37114%0
NYI A. Duclair1.410.45020%0
CHI L. Crevier1.420.2406%0
CHI J. Dickinson1.400.34016%0
NYI M. Shabanov1.400.42115%0
NYI C. Ritchie1.320.36116%1
NYI S. Holmstrom1.320.54122%0
CHI O. Moore1.210.33211%0
CHI N. Foligno1.220.36013%0
NYI J. Pageau1.200.45015%0
NYI M. Gatcomb1.220.23014%0
CHI M. Grzelcyk1.120.3203%0
CHI C. Dach1.100.24010%0
CHI W. Kaiser1.100.2106%0
NYI C. Cizikas1.100.27011%0
CHI C. Murphy1.000.1804%0
NYI M. Warren1.000.2403%0
NYI S. Mayfield1.000.1905%0
CHI A. Vlasic1.000.2304%0
CHI L. Slaggert1.010.2009%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.